TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
15 May 2018 21:37:57
A very stable looking outlook, which looks like giving us a lengthy period of general pleasantness. Nothing extreme either way. The ensembles appear very steady but of course this masks big ups and downs.

If this were July we’d be looking at a fortnight of temperatures around the 25-27C mark. If it were January we’d have a couple of frigid, frosty weeks.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
picturesareme
16 May 2018 00:38:59

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



12z UKMO keeps the high with us into next week it doesn't look like it will be going anytime soon


UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.66b61fcb4560e4f39310714171aa3aca.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.5ee2db7b71b4291ce69efecf56d7cbe1.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.df12d816f8ae1ec360792439eca6e303.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.32f40c971febd7696b5830d6768ab8d2.png




That has very warm potentially even hot written all over it for these parts. Southern coastal often get significantly warmer then the rest of the country at this time of year when a slack high bringing winds from the NE quarter...


Take the past couple of days for example.

Gavin D
16 May 2018 08:07:19

Another cracker from UKMO with high pressure always close by


UKMOPEU00_72_1.thumb.png.f552b8d8ffdfadb79116a4d4b724b8b6.pngUKMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.db529e9208522c9fa354b769cbf50177.pngUKMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.51193d3406090bd96c258671f693cc34.pngUKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.06e74dbd5f16a4d12e5505bdc5aef34b.png


Would be brilliant if this pattern can hold on through summer. After a long winter, I see no reason why we can't get a long summer


:)


Charmhills
16 May 2018 09:06:41

Its very rare to get all three summer months warm and dry in the UK, even in the best summers, you nearly always got one dodgy month at least.


The outlook looks dry and warm for now.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Jim_AFCB
16 May 2018 09:12:19

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Its very rare to get all three summer months warm and dry in the UK, even in the best summers, you nearly always got one dodgy month at least.


The outlook looks dry and warm for now.



 


Even rarer in summers in years ending in "8"


Last one was 1878 !


Just a statistical quirk I know, but expecting July and August to go downhill. June might be ok-ish.


Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries
Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here. 
Hungry Tiger
16 May 2018 10:02:13

Still looks good.


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Brian Gaze
16 May 2018 12:22:00


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
16 May 2018 12:58:17

.


Hi all I am still checking the Model Charts predictions.


The High Pressure remains with us this week and even further down to about 24th May it seems.


It looks being a mixed bag as far as any significant sunshine and also warmth is concerned.


Some warm weather, cloudy days and sunny days, light winds most of the next 12 days is expected, and it could be turning very warm at times too, but then less warm and even cool days are expected by the UKMO, GFS and ECMWF at the moment.


Later on by day 9-11 significantly warmer and sunnier weather could happen- but this is not yet agreed to say it is expected to happen, it might!.


.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Nick Gilly
16 May 2018 13:54:11

I'm wondering why there is now a recurring theme of HP over Scandinavia over the last few months. Before this it was considered a real rarity. Something must have changed.

Perthite1
16 May 2018 14:39:44
Interesting that over here in Australia we have a very strong blocking high in the bight. It's not unusual for this to be a feature here in May, but the intensity and duration is quite something. Here in Perth we are having an exceptionally dry and warm month. Interesting there is significant blocking in the Northern hemisphere as well.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 May 2018 14:47:51

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 


I'm wondering why there is now a recurring theme of HP over Scandinavia over the last few months. Before this it was considered a real rarity. Something must have changed.



Yes, hard to say but it does seem to be a thing.


At macro level we have:



  • Neutral to moderately positive AMO: nothing new

  • Fading La Niña with background of resilient positive PDO (this PDO state does seem to be a real change)

  • Neutral to slightly low Eurasian snow cover (nothing new)

  • Very low arctic sea ice (nothing new)

  • Relatively low soil moisture across central and Northern Europe, but I think this is a symptom not a  cause

  • Cold ocean in the Atlantic cold spot off Greenland (a bit scary but nothing new)


Ive been watching the PDO. It does seem to have flipped since the last big El Niño. Despite 2 years of La Niña it is still neutral, which suggests it may now be in a long term warm phase. Perhaps that’s a factor. Or perhaps just randomness.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Dingle Rob
16 May 2018 15:09:33

Originally Posted by: Perthite1 

Interesting that over here in Australia we have a very strong blocking high in the bight. It's not unusual for this to be a feature here in May, but the intensity and duration is quite something. Here in Perth we are having an exceptionally dry and warm month. Interesting there is significant blocking in the Northern hemisphere as well.


 


Didn't it all kick off in Feb with that mega SSW event? I recall Brian (I think) saying something along the lines of whether this could cause a major pattern shift. Since then we have had a completely different set up.

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
16 May 2018 19:04:23

.


Today it seems like the GFS and the ECMWF are backing curvy temperature pattern both warm and also chilly weather is supported along with some fine and dry spells, clear skies night and day as well and some Low Pressure coming off the cold NW and N Atlantic Sea at times with rain cross UK then a few blustery showers.


Three fine and very warm days and a thunderstorm or some cool chilly nights and days, a very mixed outlook indeed.


 


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Hungry Tiger
16 May 2018 19:56:18

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 






Btw -I took a look at Scandinavia and Oslo was 28.0C today and Stockholm 27.0C so its certainly on the cards here as possible.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Gavin P
17 May 2018 11:27:09

With these charts not updating


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4


Anyone know where I can find equivalent 8 day temp and precipitation anomaly charts?


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
White Meadows
17 May 2018 13:11:30

Originally Posted by: Dingle Rob 


 


 


Didn't it all kick off in Feb with that mega SSW event? I recall Brian (I think) saying something along the lines of whether this could cause a major pattern shift. Since then we have had a completely different set up.



Yes- this was mentioned a few times before, during and after the record strat warming. 


If indeed we have broken out of the past 30yr NH pattern we could certainly be in for a very different type of winter in Northern Europe and the UK

Polar Low
17 May 2018 18:37:08

 Hi Gav, I sometimes times use this link mostly only for fun


https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


With these charts not updating


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4


Anyone know where I can find equivalent 8 day temp and precipitation anomaly charts?


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 May 2018 23:20:40
Famous last words / jinx alert...

I'm liking the look of the charts at the moment and what they "might" mean for the summer. An Azores high displaced North, a block in Scandinavia, lots of nice horizontal anticyclones and a tendency to Easterlies. Feels 1995ish. And that 1995 thread that's caught everyone's imagination, and the fact that in an era of global warming we don't have a stand-out summer in this decade despite the fact the near continent has had several.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
18 May 2018 05:52:34

Wrt 1995 I flagged it up in early April here:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=4280&title=Summer+2018+weather


I continue to think there is a (low but significant) chance of it being repeated this year. On the other hand I wouldn't be surprised to see an increased frequency of cool northwesterly spells during JJA.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 May 2018 06:21:21

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Wrt 1995 I flagged it up in early April here:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=4280&title=Summer+2018+weather


I continue to think there is a (low but significant) chance of it being repeated this year. On the other hand I wouldn't be surprised to see an increased frequency of cool northwesterly spells during JJA.  



GFS 0z producing just such a spell the instant June starts - FI but ties in with the 'June Monsoon', and at least the whole BH week looks fine


 


For the immediate future, LP over France looks on the fax chart to be bringing in a few showery troughs over S England next week


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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