Both GFS 0z and ECM toying with unusually deep depressions in mid-Atlantic, but not agreeing on timing or track. The first of these, on the GFS, is at T+120, ECM a little later; ECM brings the depression across the UK but GFS takes it northwards. They look resemble remnant hurricanes but in fact develop locally off New England.

To make a change from the cool unsettled zeitgeist, here is the GFS Op from the 0z run showing a plume getting briefly into the SE around 3 August.  Worth keeping a weather eye upon?

Yes. GEFS offers support I think.

A very IMBY post!

A transient ridge skirting a relatively small area of the UK isn't going to raise a smile for the majority.

HLB is killing us this summer. Latest GFS is showing the now familiar theme of blocking over Greenland, drifting eastwards to set up over the Barents Sea. It prevents Atlantic lows travelling NE'wards to the north of us, and instead routes them far too close to the UK.

As someone who hates heat, I am very happy to see it stay in Europe

Anyway, my tomatoes in the garden are growing like mad at the moment, so I'm delighted!

Whilst the Op and Control sit with the pack, it's good to see more spread in the later stages of the GFS ens in the 06z; this was more polarised, and worryingly lacking in outliers quite recently- unnaturally over certain for FI, that's for sure.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=194

Certainly is worth keeping a weather eye, Whether I, especially since it's still there on the 06z:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_165_mslp850.png?cb=338

Just analysing the 12Z GFS run out of interest - amazing how that LP area is glued like a limpet to the NW of Scotland. Out to 60 hours and it does not budge a mile.

12z 03 Aug - SNAFU:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_165_1.png

There must be a low pressure magnate off the NW of Scotland this year. Favourite roosting place for pesky depressions.

That why I mentioned why the jet stream haven't pushed it away quickly?  I started to believe there no jet stream exist at all because if so then the LP would had been already in Russia then China?  Earlier in the summer there was a jet stream right over us that brought variety of weather pattern from brief unsettled days, many settled sunny days and few heat waves all this because HP and LP move eastward freely and very normal for summer time.  Not a single sound of happy kids playing in the gardens around here for nearly 2 weeks now.

Interesting how much of a hump there is in the long term average over the next few days, with the mean rising above 10C.