Met/o 12z a bit ridgy for a time before low pressure moves in.

Trouble with using a tablet, is that it guesses words for you and if you are not on the ball, you don't always notice - I meant "magnet" of course.

anyhow, looks as though things settle down for a time about a week from now. My holidays start on 12th August, so I am hoping for a dry and warm mid-month period.

Too far away to predict at the moment thought.

Poor summer output.

The spikes in the 850Hpa temps won't necessarily translate to decent temperatures at the surface because the jet stream is now too far south and such warmth is now associated with warm sectors in active frontal bands.

High-pressure building from the south west next weekend

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/40759766

Bar hints from GFS after next weekend we don't have anything from ECM and UKMO showing a pressure rise yet

Yes very poor this morning. 

ECM has low after low moving in with very little let up - affecting the far south too.

GFS has a glimmer of hope into FI. 

ECM and UKMO at t168

GFS ems for Birmingham and Loughborough.

Bland with showers or some longer spells of rain at times.

I am on holiday w/c 7th August and the laterst GFS run looks pretty good for that time. Unfortunately this is straw clutching and easily far enough away that this glimmer of hope could be snatched away in the next run, never to return. Still, an improvment of sorts has been shown for this period for a few days now so at least there is some consistency if nothing else.

Steady as she goes this morning with tentative signs of a gradual pressure rise from the south and southwest in the 7-10 time frame.

850Hpa temps are slow to recover suggests that initially we keep air from of WNW'ly direction as pressure gradually builds from the SW.

I will take this output even  if it means a slow and steady and nervy recovery. 

I think we are already at it worse peak this morning Gusty.  Surely cannot get any worse now and already took away 2 weeks of valuable summer time away.  Like you said the winds coming from the NW is strange because in winter when we have HLB we get easterly winds so why it not happening now?  We overdue for a proper nationwide settled weather.

Longer term Mean ecm charts look ok even good certainly the best we've seen for a couple of weeks . But the Ops are consistently more unsettled so jury still very much out that summer will return any time soon.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

If there is one thing the way the models have behaved over the past couple of weeks, in fact the summer as a whole so far, it is that we should treat all output for more than 3-4 days or so ahead with rather a large dose of salt.

After the let-down there was with the potentially long-lasting settled spell that both ECM and GFS teased us with about three weeks ago which they indicated to commence in or just after mid-July, I will not believe a proper settled spell in on the way until it is within the range of the UKMO runs.

MetO have updated their MRF to the 28th August and it isn't pretty.

Basically, if you are north of Birmingham its game over and even for southerners any settled weather will be fletting, no mention of the nationwide mid month high pressure and a mobile westerly flow dominates instead.

Oh dear.

Andy

What I have found interesting about this summer is the way the jet has behaved. For all that southern areas had a generally better first half of the summer than further north, there were occasions even during this period when the jet dived south and brought noticeable rainfall to southern areas. I can recall at least three occasions during June when my area had rainfall from LP that had moved up from the SW, S and SE. This probably explains why Edinburgh had such a wet June, as was evidenced by the numerous posts in the summer moaning thread by John and Crespular Ray who both live there.

To my mind, the models seem to do best when there is either a straight west-east atlantic driven pattern that you mention above, or there is a very settled spell with a large anticyclone either over or near to the UK. From what I remember, the models were pretty consistent back in July 2013 wrt the development of the nationwide heatwave we had that month and it's longevity, and also the way in which it eventually came to an end. Perhaps the jet during that summer was rather less active that it has evidently been this season thus far and was a factor in why HP came to dominate during that particular month.

And yet the models can't even get a handle of 5 days out let alone a month+

Oh dear.

Summer is over?

Go on, say it... you know you want to

ECM 0z shows ridging in fi this morning.

Please keep discussion about Met Office forecasts in the media thread.

Also remember to stay on track and not give me an excuse to delete your account. Once an account is deleted it can't be restored and we're not taking new registrations. Out means out.

Just spotted your quote in the Metro. Not very hopeful are you?

Think it looks quite changeable but I wouldn't be surprised to see some warmer and drier spells returning, particularly in the south.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3907&title=August+2017+weather

I'm not in the "summer is over" camp at the moment. Still time for things to improve and September is like a continuation of the summer more often than not IMHO.

Was looking at next week as I'm off to Devon for family hols from Saturday and tentatively it doesn't look too bad. 12z GFS has HP gradually nosing in for a few days and even before then we looking at showers at worst so no prolonged wet stuff.

In deep FI it goes very autumnal looking but take that with a pinch of salt etc.

What with this morning's ECM run showing HP nudging in after a few more unsettled days to come and things aren't looking bad in the mid range imo