Right then. Time for Autumn. Although often in recent years September has tended to feel more than summer than Autumn for many of us. Last year was something of an exception though.
Please post your September CET predictions below. Predictions can be made up to 23:59 on Friday evening (2nd).
Historic summary for September
1971-2000 13.7C
1981-2010 14.0C
1996-2015 14.3C
2015 was the coldest September since 1994 with 12.7C. 2012 was also chilly at 13.0C. 2011 and 2014 were warm at 15.1C. Other recent years have been close to average. We had a run of very warm Septembers from 1998 to 2006 culminating in the record CET of 16.8C in 2006.
Here is a chart of September CETs since 1951
Latest model output
The latest model output looks very warm indeed.
0Z GEFS suggests first half of September could be close to record breaking.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
ECM also looking quite warm
https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim
Met Office contingency planners overview
Not yet available
But 30 day text forecast suggests temperatures are likely to be above average.
Pattern matching
No obvious pattern from the archives. But for those years with July and August close to 17C, September tends to be close to average. But with a warm June as well (there are not many years that match this with also July and Aug close to 17C), September tends to be a bit warmer. So probably September will either be close to average or above average. Little support for a cool month.
First look at September forecast data
Slightly above average by the 12th but not by much. I suspect this may be understating things a bit.
Edited by moderator
26 October 2016 19:52:18
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Reason: Not specified