Shock horror - out of pure interest, I just did a CET estimate based on the GFS 12z op run, and by 6th September the anomaly is -3.9*C. Not only that but it barely recovers to the end of higher-res, sitting at -3.5*C up to 9th of the month.
A warmer lower-res then raises the anomaly somewhat, but by the end of the run - the mid-point of the month - the anomaly is still down at -2.2*C.
Even if the rest of the month was then equal to the LTA, the final anomaly would be near -1.0*C. So a pretty remarkable signal from GFS, and ECM has been looking very similar!
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