KevBrads1
02 April 2018 06:40:54

Here is the list of those periods that contained at least 5 consecutive days of a CET daily mean of at least 0C or less. The CET average for that period is given


26th Feb-2nd Mar 2018: -2.24C 
16th-23rd Jan 2013: -1.15
8th-12th Feb 2012: -1.54
17th-27th Dec 2010: -3.93
26th Nov - 4th Dec 2010: -1.9
3rd-10th Jan 2010: -2.3



18th-24th Dec 2009: -1.1
16th-20th Jan 2001: -0.78



31st Dec 1996- 4th Jan 1997: -1.66
25th-29th Jan  1996: -1.26
25th Dec-30th Dec 1995: -2.45
3rd-14th Feb 1991: -1.9



8th-19th Jan 1987: -3.0
20th-27th Feb 1986: -2.31
6th-18th Feb 1986: -1.51
9th-19th Feb 1985: -2.72
12th-18th Jan 1985: -2.31
6th-15th Jan 1982: -4.03
22nd-26th Dec 1981: -1.28
16th-20th Dec 1981: -2.62
8th-14th Dec 1981: -3.51



14th-18th Feb 1979: -1.8
21st-28th Jan 1979: -1.72
31st Dec 1978-6th Jan 1979: -2.91
27th Nov-1st Dec 1978: -0.6
9th-13th Feb 1978: -1.7
30th Jan-3rd Feb 1976: -0.72
31st Dec 1970- 5th Jan 1971: -1.92
11th-16th Feb 1970: -0.9
4th-8th Jan 1970: -2.28



13th-19th Feb 1969: -1.71
8th-12th Jan 1968: -1.6
19th-24th Dec 1963: -1.35
16th-20th Feb 1963: -0.74
1st-7th Feb 1963: -2.06
7th-26th Jan 1963: -3.56
23rd Dec 1962-3rd Jan 1963: -2.37
2nd-6th Dec 1962: -1.08
23rd-29th Dec 1961: -2.01



21st-25th Jan 1958: -1.86
14th-26th Feb 1956: -1.71
31st Jan-4th Feb 1956: -4.08
17th-28th Feb 1955: -1.825
26th Jan-7th Feb 1954: -2.49



1st-8th March 1947: -1.64
5th-26th Feb 1947: -2.46
24th Jan-2nd Feb 1947: -2.08
15th-22nd Jan 1946: -1.51
20th-29th Jan 1945: -3.52
25th-29th Dec 1944: -1.32
16th-23rd Feb 1942: -1.5
14th-22nd Jan 1942: -2.52
15th-19th Jan 1941: -2.04
2nd-6th January 1941: -2.58
10th-19th Feb 1940: -1.84
10th-24th Jan 1940: -3.49



18th-22nd Dec 1938: -2.34
18th-24th Dec 1935: -1.96
22nd-27th Jan 1933: -1.65



26th Feb-2nd Mar 1929: -1.76
11th-19th Feb 1929: -4.61
16th Dec-20th 1927: -2.86
13th-18th Jan 1926: -2.4
12th-16th Dec 1920: -1.66



8th-13th Feb 1919: -1.78
1st-11th Feb 1917: -2.92
21st-30th Jan 1917: -1.27



1st-6th Feb 1909: -1.57
27th-31st Dec 1908: -3.12
26th-30th Dec 1906: -1.5
20th-25th Dec 1904: -1.53
23rd-27th Nov 1904: -1.96
12th-17th Jan 1903: -1.88
4th-8th Dec 1902: -1.9
10th-14th Feb 1902: -2.26
5th-9th Jan 1901: -0.64
7th-13th Feb 1900: -2.11



9th-17th Feb 1899: -1.53
5th-18th Feb 1895: -4.81
26th Jan -1st Feb 1895: -2.97
9th-13th Jan 1895: -2.16
3rd-8th Jan 1894: -4.4
24th Dec 1892-7th Jan 1893: -3.31
16th Feb-20th Feb 1892: -2.82
8th-16th Jan 1892: -1.64
20th-25th Dec 1891: -3.67
5th-11th Jan 1891: -2.04
28th Dec 1890-2nd Jan 1891: -1.32
9th-26th Dec 1890: -2.14



22nd-26th Feb 1888: -1.08
8th-27th Jan 1881: -4.38
18th-29th Jan 1880: -2.07



30th Nov-8th Dec 1879: -3.37
28th Jan -1st Feb 1879: -0.64
2nd-12th Jan 1879: -2.31
20th-26th Dec 1878: -3.24
8th-17th Dec 1878: -2.95
25th-31st Dec 1874: -2.86
14th-18th Dec 1874: -4.5
25th-31st Jan 1871: -0.97
21st Dec 1870-4th Jan 1871: -4.11
9th-14th Feb 1870: -2.38



11th-21st Jan 1867: -2.85
31st Dec 1866-5th Jan 1867: -3.9
10th-16th 1865: -1.73
19th-23rd Feb 1864: -1.08
1st-8th Jan 1864: -3.43
16th-20th Jan 1862: -1.7
2nd-10th Jan 1861: -2.32
17th-29th Dec 1860: -2.1
9th-14th Feb 1860: -2



13th-19th Dec 1859: -4.89
10th-14th Jan 1856: -0.98
6th-23rd Feb 1855: -3.71
25th Dec 1853-5th Jan 1854: -1.93
11th-21st Feb 1853: -1.23
6th-16th Jan 1850: -1.35



7th-13th Feb 1847: -2.61
11th-16th Dec 1846: -2.63
12th-17th Mar 1845: -2.92
7th-13th Feb 1845: -2.3
5th-14th Dec 1844: -2.68
13th-18th Feb 1843: -1.06
7th-11th Jan 1842: -1.02
1st-10th Feb 1841: -2.94
3rd-9th Jan 1841: -3.96



5th-9th March 1839: -1.32
10th-17th Feb 1838: -2.08
8th-21st Jan 1838: -5.14
20th-24th March 1837: -0.7
24th Dec 1836- 2nd Jan 1837: -1.27
22nd-26th Dec 1835: -1.94
4th-8th Jan 1835: -2.36
21st-25th Jan 1833: -1
23rd-27th Dec 1830: -3.36
30th Jan-6th Feb 1830: -4.55
12th-20th Jan 1830: -2.43



23rd Dec 1829-1st Jan 1830: -1.42
16th-25th Jan 1829: -2.91
16th-20th Feb 1827: -2.78
19th-27th Jan 1827: -2
8th-17th Jan 1826: -3.7
9th-26th Jan 1823: -2.96
26th Dec 1822-1st Jan 1823: -2.1
25th Dec 1820-4th Jan 1821: -1.32
3rd-16th Jan 1820: -3.57



24th Dec 1819-1st Jan 1820: -2.41
8th-14th Dec 1819: -2.94
22nd-26th Dec 1817: -0.96
7th-13th Feb 1816: -3.29
28th jan -1st Feb 1816: -2.06
19th-27th Jan 1815: -2.06
3rd-7th Jan 1815: -0.42
6th-10th Mar 1814: -0.64
20th-27th Feb 1814: -1.56
27th Dec 1813-27th Jan 1814: -3.15
21st-25th Jan 1813: -1.08
12th-16th Dec 1812: -1.46
26th-31st Dec 1811: -1.47
29th Dec 1810- 10th Jan 1811: -1.52
16th-22nd Feb 1810: -1.97



14th-23rd Jan 1809: -2.3
19th-26th Dec 1808: -2.24
5th-10th Dec 1803: -1.72
7th-12th Feb 1803: -1.8
25th-30th Jan 1803: -2.22
10th-16th Jan 1803: -2.13
10th-16th Jan 1802: -2.94
12th-20th Dec 1801: -2.28
5th-9th Mar 1800: -0.82



27th Dec 1799- 2nd Jan 1800: -2.66
19th-25th Dec 1799: -1.82
28th Jan-8th Feb 1799: -2.57
31st Dec 1798-7th Jan 1799: -0.7
24th-29th Dec 1798: -5.38
21st-27th Dec 1796: -3.59
30th Nov-11th Dec 1796: -1.78
17th-22nd Feb 1795: -2.52
29th Jan-7th Feb 1795: -1.56
10th-26th Jan 1795: -3.79
31st Dec 1794-6th Jan 1795: -4.1
17th-21st Feb 1792: -2.32



2nd-9th Jan 1789: -2.76
27th-31st Dec 1788: -2.34
12th-20th Dec 1788: -2.49
29th Dec 1785-4th Jan 1786: -4.21
9th-15th Feb 1784: -1.74
18th Jan-1st Feb 1784: -2.07 
6th-11th Jan 1784: -2.28
27th Dec 1783-1st Jan 1784: -3.37
21st Jan-3rd Feb 1780: -1
8th-15th Jan 1780: -4.03



7th Jan -1st Feb 1776: -2.96
31st Dec 1773-5th Jan 1774: -2.28
7th-13th Feb 1773: -1.54
17th-21st Jan 1772: -1.3 


Longest consecutive run


32 days: 27th Dec 1813-27th Jan 1814: -3.15


26 days: 7th Jan -1st Feb 1776: -2.96


22 days: 5th-26th Feb 1947: -2.46


20 days: 7th-26th Jan 1963: -3.56


20 days: 8th-27th Jan 1881: -4.38


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 April 2018 07:51:19

Wow!  Only 1845 beat 2018 with such a late cold spell!  That’s quite some going!


Kev, you do come up with some interesting stats and your efforts really are appreciated!  Thank you!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 April 2018 08:57:49

Great stats Kev. interesting we've had as many of these severe cold spells this decade as the previous two decades combined.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
02 April 2018 10:30:01

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Wow!  Only 1845 beat 2018 with such a late cold spell!  That’s quite some going!


Kev, you do come up with some interesting stats and your efforts really are appreciated!  Thank you!  



Great stuff Kevin. I'll second Caz's compliments there. Great stuff.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Sussex snow magnet
02 April 2018 14:53:16
Excellent stats clearly shows where the cold spells are, thing that sticks out to me was the 30 year period from 1910 to 1940, worse than any recent 30 year period.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 April 2018 15:10:18

Originally Posted by: Sussex snow magnet 

Excellent stats clearly shows where the cold spells are, thing that sticks out to me was the 30 year period from 1910 to 1940, worse than any recent 30 year period.


  In what sense is it worse?  There seem to be fewer cold spells there, unless I’m reading it wrong!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Sussex snow magnet
02 April 2018 15:17:17

Yes worse as in less, so showing it as a more baron spell for cold spells  than any recent 30 year period.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 April 2018 15:35:47

Originally Posted by: Sussex snow magnet 


Yes worse as in less, so showing it as a more baron spell for cold spells  than any recent 30 year period.


Ahh!  I see!  I suppose it depends on which type of weather you define as worse!   


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
jhall
02 April 2018 15:51:33

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Wow!  Only 1845 beat 2018 with such a late cold spell!  That’s quite some going!


Kev, you do come up with some interesting stats and your efforts really are appreciated!  Thank you!  



Indeed they are. Thanks.


Cranleigh, Surrey
richardabdn
02 April 2018 16:03:24

Hasn't been any such spells here since 2010 when there were two, each of 11 days duration: 27th Nov - 8th Dec and 16th - 26th Dec.


I would imagine that such a barren spell is without precedent and this is likely to continue for as long as the absence of northerlies does.


Easterlies are now absolutely useless and struggle to even give minima below freezing never mind daily means 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
LeedsLad123
02 April 2018 16:07:15

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Hasn't been any such spells here since 2010 when there were two, each of 11 days duration: 27th Nov - 8th Dec and 16th - 26th Dec.


I would imagine that such a barren spell is without precedent and this is likely to continue for as long as the absence of northerlies does.


Easterlies are now absolutely useless and struggle to even give minima below freezing never mind daily means 



Such is life in Aberdeen. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
johncs2016
02 April 2018 16:18:22

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


 


Such is life in Aberdeen. 



.. and probably here in Edinburgh as well because even when we had our last official ice day at the beginning of March courtesy of Beast From the East version 1.0, the temperature still didn't drop all that much during the night due to there being too much cloud and too much wind. That in turn, then allowed that more recent temperature of -4°C  at Edinburgh Airport under clear skies and without that easterly wind to end up being colder than anything which those Beast from the East episodes could throw at us.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Grandad
08 April 2018 17:19:10

I have been promising (over on another forum) to produce a report on a long term analysis I had been considering as a result of this years Beasterlies.

The original intention was to see where the 2 easterly episodes would reside on terms of longer term statistics.

Kevin has produced the details of the CET's, and I have used this data to examine the 850's associated with all the earlier cold events.

I have 'published' the data as it could very well be useful for future cold spells, and it also it entailed many hours of 'slog'.

It is not totally empiric, as I used some personal assessments in order to give what I felt was a reasonable 'average' for the episode and I tried to look at an 'average' for the UK, rather than the absolute 'coldest'.

The same applied to my assessment of the coldest 850's 'upstream' of the event., wherever that might be. Some are caused by Greenland blocking, some by straight Northerlies, however most by the 'Scandy' high in all its forms. There are a few 'home grown' anticyclones causing cold spells.

Anyway if you want you are perfectly free to copy the report for your own use in future years.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/hcnnc12ncl77puj/Winter%20review%2013%20Final.pdf?dl=0 

Grandad
Broadmayne Blizzard
18 April 2018 18:31:27
A fantastic piece of work. Thank you for sharing it with us.
Formerly Blizzard of 78
jhall
20 April 2018 17:46:16

Thanks. Fascinating stuff. I'd have commented earlier, but I've been away on holiday and offline.


I would have thought that there would be a period in late December 1962 that would meet your criterion of a mean CET of 0.0 or lower over a period of 5 or more days, but it doesn't appear in the table.


Are the dates given those for when the period started or for the day when the 850 mb temperature was at its lowest over the UK? 


Cranleigh, Surrey
Sussex snow magnet
20 April 2018 17:53:55
Late Dec 1962 is in the table.
jhall
21 April 2018 09:27:40

Originally Posted by: Sussex snow magnet 

Late Dec 1962 is in the table.


Nope. Late December 1961 and late December 1963 are both in the table, but not 1962. I'm wondering if "1963" is a typo for "1962".


Cranleigh, Surrey
Broadmayne Blizzard
26 August 2018 12:09:28

Originally Posted by: jhall 


 


Nope. Late December 1961 and late December 1963 are both in the table, but not 1962. I'm wondering if "1963" is a typo for "1962".


[/quote


 


Late 1962 is clearly in the table.


Marked as 23rd Dec 1962 to 3rd Jan 1963


Formerly Blizzard of 78
Bertwhistle
26 August 2018 15:59:12

Late 1962-early 1963 is in the table.


Quoted from Kev's list:


13th-19th Feb 1969: -1.71
8th-12th Jan 1968: -1.6
19th-24th Dec 1963: -1.35
16th-20th Feb 1963: -0.74
1st-7th Feb 1963: -2.06
7th-26th Jan 1963: -3.56
23rd Dec 1962-3rd Jan 1963: -2.37
2nd-6th Dec 1962: -1.08
23rd-29th Dec 1961: -2.01


It's in between late 1961 and late 1963.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Bertwhistle
26 August 2018 16:00:13

An excellent and fascinating piece of work Kev.



Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
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