The Weather Outlook

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jhall
12 March 2018 17:03:09

 

 

The metoffice introduced colour coded warnings in 2008

 

 

 

The met office seem to be saying that they tweaked the definitions of those colour codings in 2011 so previous ones don't count?

Which to me seems a bit like saying if the FA tweak the conditions for getting a red card then all previous red cards don't count...

Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 

That's a bit like when they say something like "it was the coldest/mildest/driest/wettest May since records began in 1910", because that's as far back as their digitised statistics averaged over the whole country go. When the CET and EWR series go back far further than that, it can be seriously misleading.


Cranleigh, Surrey
Gavin D
12 March 2018 17:03:32

Bring out the woolies again: Cold snap to return to UK this weekend

Although widespread frost and ice is possible, the good news is that any snow that does fall is not expected to settle for long.

https://news.sky.com/story/bring-out-the-woolies-again-cold-snap-to-return-to-uk-this-weekend-11287395

Arcus
12 March 2018 19:09:33

A few comments on here of late about the Met Office's warning system, so I thought I'd take a trawl through the archives to see how things have changed over the years. Not all dates are available to look at, of course, but I hope the following is of some interest (apologies for the TLDR potential and the slow load times for some):

 

March 2nd 2001

https://web.archive.org/web/20010302111708/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk:80/

The only type of warning shown was the Flash Warning, where severe weather was expected in the next few hours. No Advanced Warnings for severe weather over the next few days were used. And the map doesn't look correct given the text forecast of snow showers!

Two weather warnings shown here for heavy snow., notable for them being issued by cities (Leeds and Norwich) rather than regional warnings.

"Warnings have been issued by:
Leeds at 10:12   HEAVY SNOW 
Norwich at 09:56   HEAVY SNOW "

EDIT: One presumes these are the regional MetO centres that would issue the warnings.

 

December 22nd 2002

https://web.archive.org/web/20021222192651/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk:80/weather/europe/uk/warnings.html

The Flash Warning is joined by the Advanced Warning (which covers 12 to 48 hours). It could well have come in earlier than this date, but it's the first example I could find.

 

August 7th 2004

https://web.archive.org/web/20040808014523/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk:80/weather/europe/uk/warnings.html

By now the Advanced Warning is going beyond 48 hours - in this example the warning is issued on Saturday 7th August and covers from 06:00 Sunday 8th to 23:59 Wednesday 11th.

 

January 18th 2005

https://web.archive.org/web/20050119063315/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk:80/weather/europe/uk/warnings.html

Flash warnings of icy roads, advanced warning for snow. Notice that there's no colour coding in these warnings.

 

November 24th 2005

https://web.archive.org/web/20051125092218/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk:80/weather/europe/uk/warnings.html

Flash warnings again, but now with a map – don't get excited by the red shading, it is used to denote a warning being present - there's no indication of severity yet. There's also an advanced warning of snow and blizzards below.

 

December 5th 2006

https://web.archive.org/web/20061205104433/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

First sight of a different web address for warnings, plus a different layout with the 5 days warnings maps (note the maps not shading correctly here)

 

July 20th 2007

https://web.archive.org/web/20070720043312/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Flash warnings of storms and heavy rain plus advanced warnings of storms and rain with a risk map. Warnings still shaded in red, no matter what severity (“Map regions coloured red show where severe weather warnings have been issued.”). That page does look exciting when viewed through 2018 glasses!

 

July 27th 2008

First occurrence I could find of the graded traffic light system (Be aware – yellow /Be prepared - amber/Take action - red) on the warnings rather than just red shading (though could have been before this – no pages were harvested in early 2008).

https://web.archive.org/web/20080727003021/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

 

July 5th 2009

Another one for storms from 5th July 2009. Difference from 2008 is the warning graphic has changed on top banner from the UK map to a larger graphic on the right colour coded to signify amber alter for storms.

https://web.archive.org/web/20090705145231/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

 

April 4th 2011

https://web.archive.org/web/20110404165641/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

General warnings split into weather type icons (rain, wind, snow, ice, fog) on the site and graded according to the severity (yellow/amber/red).

https://web.archive.org/web/20110404164538/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/nswws-changes

 

 

 


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Gavin D
12 March 2018 19:34:19
Anyone know why the forum time has gone 1 hour ahead? is it to do with the clock change across the pond yesterday?
squish
12 March 2018 21:10:02
I seem to remember an 'emergency' red warning being issued for snow over Dartmoor in 2009 (Feb)...a predecessor to the yellow/amber/red warnings we now have in place. It was correct and we got nearly a foot, and in some places near Okehampton nearly 50 cms.


D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Arcus
12 March 2018 21:22:11

I seem to remember an 'emergency' red warning being issued for snow over Dartmoor in 2009 (Feb)...a predecessor to the yellow/amber/red warnings we now have in place. It was correct and we got nearly a foot, and in some places near Okehampton nearly 50 cms.

Originally Posted by: squish 

As I've said above, the yellow/amber/red came in before that in 2008.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

tallyho_83
12 March 2018 22:00:37

More like a 'Mini' beast" as quote by Darren Bett. - according to the bbc week ahead forecast.

My gosh he is such a mild ramper, even said it will turn milder from mid week next week onwards - Meanwhile, this Saturday showed the whole of the south of the Uk covered in snow showers unless it was cloud cover!? Anyone else pick up on this?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Retron
13 March 2018 03:41:17
The MetO's on board - from the local forecast for London and the SE:

"Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Thursday, rain then brighter with showers, some heavy. Winds moderating later. Friday, further showers. Saturday, turning much colder with a strengthening easterly wind, some snow showers possible later."


Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 March 2018 07:05:49

The MetO's on board - from the local forecast for London and the SE:

"Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Thursday, rain then brighter with showers, some heavy. Winds moderating later. Friday, further showers. Saturday, turning much colder with a strengthening easterly wind, some snow showers possible later."

Originally Posted by: Retron 

TV forecasts and MetO forecasts less apocalyptic than model reviews would suggest - temp ranges 4C day to 0C night and (IMBY) little snow. Hope they're right for Saturday as we have to go to London, but bring it on for Sunday!


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Gavin D
13 March 2018 12:01:23
Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 27 Mar 2018:

Very cold through Sunday and Monday with widespread, locally severe, frosts overnight. Quite frequent snow showers for a time across central, eastern and southeastern parts, with a few showers reaching the west. There is a low risk of more persistent snow moving west across southern and some central areas, this more likely on Sunday. The brightest and driest conditions in the northwest, but probably extending across other parts, with snow showers confined to the southeast. Windy for many, accentuating the cold feel. Increasingly uncertain later in the week, but with a high chance of colder than normal conditions, after a short anticyclonic spell with severe frosts in places. Probably becoming rather unsettled and sometimes windy from the west with rain possibly turning to snow as it moves northeastwards.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 28 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 11 Apr 2018:

There is significant uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period, but a blocked or slowly changing weather pattern appears most likely. There will most likely be a balance between Atlantic frontal systems in the south and west and colder high pressure to the northeast. Mixed conditions are likely with probably wetter than average conditions across the south, while staying drier to the north. Further snow is possible, especially in the north and it will be windy at times. Any periods of more mobile conditions are likely to last for no more than a few days. Temperatures will likely be below average with further night frosts, and any milder interludes will probably be only brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
13 March 2018 12:11:56

More like a 'Mini' beast" as quote by Darren Bett. - according to the bbc week ahead forecast.

My gosh he is such a mild ramper, even said it will turn milder from mid week next week onwards - Meanwhile, this Saturday showed the whole of the south of the Uk covered in snow showers unless it was cloud cover!? Anyone else pick up on this?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

BBC weather website agrees in it turning milder from mid week obviously further north temps will be below average but less cold than the weekend  

Gavin D
13 March 2018 12:16:09
Outlook

Cold start

Snow showers

Milder midweek

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43381481 

Gooner
13 March 2018 12:18:45

 

BBC weather website agrees in it turning milder from mid week obviously further north temps will be below average but less cold than the weekend  

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

But not with the latest met update which is a cold one


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
13 March 2018 12:19:46

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 27 Mar 2018:

Very cold through Sunday and Monday with widespread, locally severe, frosts overnight. Quite frequent snow showers for a time across central, eastern and southeastern parts, with a few showers reaching the west. There is a low risk of more persistent snow moving west across southern and some central areas, this more likely on Sunday. The brightest and driest conditions in the northwest, but probably extending across other parts, with snow showers confined to the southeast. Windy for many, accentuating the cold feel. Increasingly uncertain later in the week, but with a high chance of colder than normal conditions, after a short anticyclonic spell with severe frosts in places. Probably becoming rather unsettled and sometimes windy from the west with rain possibly turning to snow as it moves northeastwards.

 

Cracking update


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



idj20
13 March 2018 12:25:16

Cracking update

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



It would be in mid-January.

But at this time of the year, it's about as welcome as being ill in a doctor's waiting room. More heating costs only for things to be wet and windy again at the end of it all? Joys of joys.

Perhaps that's just me being numbed by let downs or being underwhelmed by past efforts with the cold and snow at this end, or it's old age creeping in but I just want to be wearing shorts & T shirts indoors and outdoors without looking like a freshly plucked chicken as soon as possible.


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Retron
13 March 2018 12:30:49



It would be in mid-January.

But at this time of the year, it's about as welcome as being ill in a doctor's waiting room.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

It's certainly welcome here, but I don't have any worries with heating costs and I love snow in general.

The upcoming cold spell, incidentally, has been picked up at work - word has got round far faster than it did last time!

 


Leysdown, north Kent
moomin75
13 March 2018 12:35:56



It would be in mid-January.

But at this time of the year, it's about as welcome as being ill in a doctor's waiting room. More heating costs only for things to be wet and windy again at the end of it all? Joys of joys.

Perhaps that's just me being numbed by let downs or being underwhelmed by past efforts with the cold and snow at this end, or it's old age creeping in but I just want to be wearing shorts & T shirts indoors and outdoors without looking like a freshly plucked chicken as soon as possible.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

I concur. Terrible update for spring. Don't want this at all but looks like a short sharp shock is on the way. Roll on spring and summer.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

tallyho_83
13 March 2018 12:49:51
Whilst we are having temps of 12 to 15c today in England NYC IS having more snow - so this would mean when we get the easterly NYC will warm up haha!

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york-ny/10007/weather-forecast/349727 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
13 March 2018 13:51:25
Times square webcam:

https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsrobo1 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
13 March 2018 16:54:42

Times square webcam:

https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsrobo1

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Still snowing there - been snowing for like 24 hours now - but can't see much in the way of accumulation:

 

https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsnorth_hd

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
13 March 2018 20:10:30
This highlights uncertainty about snow at the weekend.


Whether Idle
13 March 2018 20:52:06

This highlights uncertainty about snow at the weekend.

Originally Posted by: four 

">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6lI4P3FOeQ

Good post, good video.  Highlights the uncertainty.  In these set ups things chop and change til t60-ish so 2 more days of vacillation ahead.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gavin D
13 March 2018 21:07:10

 

Still snowing there - been snowing for like 24 hours now - but can't see much in the way of accumulation:

 

https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsnorth_hd

 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

 

Nothing at all ground is perfectly clear

Gavin D
13 March 2018 21:10:51
Mini beast at the weekend then

Cold

Night frosts

Largely dry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43394668 

tallyho_83
13 March 2018 23:07:26

Mini beast at the weekend then

Cold
Night frosts
Largely dry

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43394668

Darren Bett = Perhaps the mildest ramper of all presenters. At least Jay wynne isn't doing as many forecasts.


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

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