The high-res charts show quite a vicious kink in the isobars crossing the country, looks like a really sharp trough tomorrow.
Exactly. I find myself scratching my head again this evening.
Met Eireann named this system and are only forecasting winds up to 75mph (120kph) but have issued an orange warning
STATUS ORANGE
Wind Warning for Ireland
A depression now named Storm Georgina will track to the northwest of the country tonight. Southwest winds will reach mean speeds between 65 and 80 km/h, gusting up to 120 km/h for a time tonight.
Issued:
Tuesday 23 January 2018 14:00
Valid:
Wednesday 24 January 2018 00:01 to Wednesday 24 January 2018 05:00
The Met Office is forecasting winds gusting up to 80 mph but only has a yellow warning (this is because winds of this speed in the western Isles of Scotland are not usual and it is not a highly populated area). But that said the ICON and other models are suggesting winds speeds could reach 90mph (up to 150kph) which surely would warrant an amber warning.
Between 01:00 Wed 24th and 14:00 Wed 24th
A spell of windy weather is expected with gusts widely 50 to 60 mph and over the Hebrides and northern and western parts of Highland gusts are likely to reach 70 to 80 mph. These high winds will probably affect some bus and train services leaving some journeys taking longer. Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges are likely and some short term loss of power and other services is possible.
As you point out Rob there is likely to be a band of very strong straight line winds close to the cold front as it moves through England. Gusts of 65-75mph even inland are quite possible.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2018012318/iconeu_uk1-11-16-0.png?23-21
Yet no mention of this from the Met Office in any warnings at all. Indeed the T16 chart linked above from the 18z ICON run has gusts of 120-130kph (75-80mph) over parts of Eastern England. This model is somewhat out on its own with these speeds but even so gusts of over 60mph over mainland UK have frequently resulted in a yellow warning in the past. So something of a lack of consistency I think. Yes the strong winds over England will only last a short period of time, but that is irrelevant. They could easily be strong enough to cause disruption.
Edited by user
23 January 2018 22:16:04
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Reason: Not specified