By next weekend, signs of HP settling close to the UK and perhaps more settled in the S. Perhaps a little colder too.

That leaves February as the last hope for any real E'ly outbreak.

Q: Am I confident of the Beast arriving?

A: As a winter poster only, I think today will be my last post until the end of next summer, ca. November 

 

How you can say Winter is over on January 22nd is beyond me Mike

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As a veteran of chasing the winter dream for us in Deep South - the true easterly - I think there’s been an uptick in potential this morning which had any one of 10 of the GEFS been the operational would generate more traffic I’m sure.
Some wide-eye options available, enough to keep my interest up in the quad-daily ritual and who knows, if the COD swims the right way and MFI and DFS work out their phases we might have a chance 😎

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How you can say Winter is over on January 22nd is beyond me Mike

I can understand why because runs look dire and any cold look cooler and dry and perhaps overcast cold instead of a cold easterly etc.

There certainly isn't anything cold this side of January anyway which leaves us 28 days in FEB.

What is interesting is that since March 2013 we seem to be getting earlier springs or tastes' of springs and writing winter off earlier !? - I wonder why?

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I can understand why because runs look dire and any cold look cooler and dry and perhaps overcast cold instead of a cold easterly etc.

There certainly isn't anything cold this side of January anyway which leaves us 28 days in FEB.

What is interesting is that since March 2013 we seem to be getting earlier springs or tastes' of springs and writing winter off earlier !? - I wonder why?

To Feb 7th ?

 

Funny old lot in here

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How you can say Winter is over on January 22nd is beyond me Mike

Long-time members here will still no doubt recall time almost exactly 13 years ago when one respected member, based on what at the time appeared to be poor model output for cold prospects, said that winter was over in the early days of that February. And we all know what happened next, don't we!

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according to GP video yesterday its a 50/50 balance weather it will stay mild or cold will come in from the north at the start on FEB when he did the GFS Ensembles Watch http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

 

 

How you can say Winter is over on January 22nd is beyond me Mike

Over? It never actually got going in the first place at this end. 

Anyway, I remain optimistic for high pressure to settle things down by the weekend and beyond, that would be a good few days of winter dealt with as we slowly and painfully inch our way towards the Spring equinox. 

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Shaping up to be cold for a while on GFS shame no chance as winter is over before our coldest historical month!!

Shaping up to be cold for a while on GFS shame no chance as winter is over before our coldest historical month!!

Use that phrase at your peril!

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Over? It never actually got going in the first place at this end. 

Anyway, I remain optimistic for high pressure to settle things down by the weekend and beyond, that would be a good few days of winter dealt with as we slowly and painfully inch our way towards the Spring equinox. 

The form horse in most winters is to go against a decent easterly, the smart part is calling one that materialises.

There are crumbs around but no sign of anything yet but as Marcus rightly points out the output we can see only takes us to 7th February and I wouldn't take much notice of anything beyond five days out anyway!

Also bear in mind that an easterly is far more likely in late winter so all is not lost.

How you can say Winter is over on January 22nd is beyond me Mike

Indeed.

We have this nonsense every year.

ECM 00z looks unsettled and cold in fi this morning.

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How you can say Winter is over on January 22nd is beyond me Mike

Given the collection of emoticons after his comment and knowing Mike as a sensible contributor I'm fairly certain he was joking.

I don't understand the pessimistic and downbeat tone here recently. It's been a decent winter for many and an excellent one for some and winter is barely half over.  Cold in early March is as likely or more than in early December - and in March you know the decent weather isn't far away.

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From a imby perspective this winter so far has been the best in 5years..3 Snow events giving a overall total of 20 cm....9 days of recording snow falling..and rightly its only 22 Jan...As far as I see the potential is still there...Take yesterday....although snow totals were not excessive...it reminded me of when we used to get snow to mild breakdowns in the 70s....most breakdowns south of the Trent usually only get rain...dp and 850 and altitude dependant...but yesterday was a reminder that it is still possible....

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GEFS 06z suggests winter is definitely NOT over. 

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There has been a single very cold outlier in the GEFS for numerous runs, but now there are a few more appearing to keep it company. For balance it should be said there is also a clear mild cluster towards the end of the run, but at least they are signs that they are trending in the right direction.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

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Yes, its all about trends and whilst the GEFS is still a million miles away from delivering me my much desired easterly it is at least now making a regular appearance in FI!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012206/graphe3_1000_217.94000244140625_248.4199981689453___.gif 

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The 06z East Midlands ems!!!!

As Brian said winter is far from over.

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Yes, its all about trends and whilst the GEFS is still a million miles away from delivering me my much desired easterly it is at least now making a regular appearance in FI!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012206/graphe3_1000_217.94000244140625_248.4199981689453___.gif

And f1 is were they've been all season long!! 

 

Given the collection of emoticons after his comment and knowing Mike as a sensible contributor I'm fairly certain he was joking.

I don't understand the pessimistic and downbeat tone here recently. It's been a decent winter for many and an excellent one for some and winter is barely half over.  Cold in early March is as likely or more than in early December - and in March you know the decent weather isn't far away.

Cold in March is pointless from a true southern point of view.. It's about as useful as laxatives are when you have the trots!!

So yes winter is approaching it's last legs for this season down in the true south.

GEFS 06z suggests winter is definitely NOT over. 

 

Indeed... Couldn’t quite work out how many of these dipped to below -10c, but around half do at some point.  Also, to have -7c mean at 14 days out is remarkable.  Might be a flash in the model pan given we’re looking wellnin FI, but not bad at all.

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