As I said a couple of days ago, March has delivered more proper snow here in recent years that many of the supposed winter months.

I'm afraid I am going to take this as an excuse to get out the favourites yet again. These are from 1 April 2013, showing the result of late March falls:

 

 

That was an incredible amount of snow for the start of the second month of spring.

That said, we had a very heavy fall here in mid-March 2006, which came during a cold spell that commened in late February 2006, and the snow depth was every bit as great as we had in December '09/January '10 and then December 2010.

---

Back on topic, and high pressure becomes dominant across the UK by T+240 on the GFS 18z, very similar to the 00z and 06z runs today.

Too far out to be taken seriously, but there does seem to be something of a trend emerging here in the GFS runs wrt high pressure taking control for a while once next week is out of the way.

---

Back on topic, and high pressure becomes dominant across the UK by T+240 on the GFS 18z, very similar to the 00z and 06z runs today.

Too far out to be taken seriously, but there does seem to be something of a trend emerging here in the GFS runs wrt high pressure taking control for a while once next week is out of the way.

Indeed, and fairly subtle differences in the position of the high pressure centres can have dramatically different outcomes for the UK - as proposed by the array of solutions on offer from the recent GEFS. 

Don’t rule anything out 😉

---

Lovely pictures Nick 

 

As I said a couple of days ago, March has delivered more proper snow here in recent years that many of the supposed winter months.

I'm afraid I am going to take this as an excuse to get out the favourites yet again. These are from 1 April 2013, showing the result of late March falls:

 

 

As others have said, HP domination for late Jan into early Feb has become a solid trend.

And a little tease once again at 384hrs (isn't there always?) with retrogression towards Greenland where there is a large pool of sub -30C air...

---

 

As I said a couple of days ago, March has delivered more proper snow here in recent years that many of the supposed winter months.

I'm afraid I am going to take this as an excuse to get out the favourites yet again. These are from 1 April 2013, showing the result of late March falls:

 

Unfortunately I don't have pics but I remember seeing similar snow depths in March 198X in the North Yorkshire wolds. From recollection there was no snow at all in York (15 to 20 miles away I think) at the same time. 

---

 

Unfortunately I don't have pics but I remember seeing similar snow depths in March 198X in the North Yorkshire wolds. From recollection there was no snow at all in York (15 to 20 miles away I think) at the same time. 

There was none in Durham city either (it lasted a few days but by this point had all melted). 45 mins after taking this I was in my back garden planting the broad beans!

---

It’s strange how quiet this thread is at times.

Same theme this morning, but if anything the idea of retrogression favoured over a NE block longer term. High over or south about an equal possibility.

---

I’m just watching things evolve at the moment but am not seeing much set in stone of particular interest. It does look quite settled in the medium term as things stand, that aside not much of note for mid-winter bar a few mild days.

---

It’s strange how quiet this thread is at times.

Same theme this morning, but if anything the idea of retrogression favoured over a NE block longer term. High over or south about an equal possibility.

let it go Neil 

---

 

let it go Neil 

...the cold never bothered me anyway...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moSFlvxnbgk

---

 

...the cold never bothered me anyway...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moSFlvxnbgk

. Yep...let the storm rage on.

---

JFF....384hrs is poised for an arctic incursion....I'll stick to 10 home wins today...better chance of that coming off!....

---

Calm and settled would be great in early February as I'm in Derbyshire so walking and cycling could be on the cards... Cold and snowy a bonus..

---

JFF....384hrs is poised for an arctic incursion....I'll stick to 10 home wins today...better chance of that coming off!....

Yes, it aint called Fantasy Island for nothing.  Its almost always cold at 384 hours.

---

GP has mentioned that the GFS has backed off the SSW for late January at the moment... So we're still waiting.--

so looking mild and wet with some dry periods till month ends. FEB is not looking much cop cold dry settled/ with some mildness and wet periods. from what ive been reading...

GP has mentioned that the GFS has backed off the SSW for late January at the moment... So we're still waiting.--

so looking mild and wet with some dry periods till month ends. FEB is not looking much cop cold dry settled/ with some mildness and wet periods. from what ive been reading...

Given the evidence of this winter I wouldn’t comment on the end of January nevermind reading about February! Ironically I suspect there is more chance of snow here on Thursday night than there was at any time in the cold zonal setup just about to end.

I don’t think the mildness or rainfall in the coming week will be anything remarkable.

---

 FEB is not looking much cop cold dry settled/ with some mildness and wet periods. from what ive been reading...

I take it you are being ironic. Cold, dry, wet and mild! I'd be interested to know when the last forecast was that was accurate for 2-6 weeks ahead?

---

00z GFS sticks with the HP dominated theme, in FI with better clustering of the ens pressure wise later on suggesting it's a strong signal at the moment (along with yesterdays MetO update which was very confident of a high pressure dominated spell).

As Neil mentions where the expected block sets up will make a big difference to temps, although as we're still early enough in the year if the block is stable enough milder 850s above won't mean much if the air stagnates at the surface.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsensmslpLondon.png?cb=916

ECM is a bit nothing ish for it's run - some milder stuff, some colder stuff (including the colder blip for Scotland on 25th/26th which has been signalled for a while now). It's not a screaming atlantic assault though and may well end up where GFS FI goes.

Milder and unsettled for a week or so after the cold gets washed away this weekend (albeit a snowy wash for some) then a decent chance of some settled weather later on. TBH this time of year a block giving us a long fetch southerly would be a nice thing, as would one giving a long fetch easterly. I'd prefer the latter but the former would be acceptable too

 

 

---

 

As I said a couple of days ago, March has delivered more proper snow here in recent years that many of the supposed winter months.

I'm afraid I am going to take this as an excuse to get out the favourites yet again. These are from 1 April 2013, showing the result of late March falls:

 

 

Salivating pics. 😁