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I've certainly seen a far worse runs for cold at this time of year, that's for sure.
Agreed. Based on the fact there will be more flip flops to be had.. the general picture is one that is very encouraging.
The overall picture for the end of this week has tempered some what.. but it appears that has been replaced by perhaps better longevity, or along those lines, with Cold being the dominant feature in some way.
I'm not entirely sure what people are expecting to see, but the GFS 06z run is great. and looks like another cold shot after a midweek warm up next week.
Also as I mentioned in my previous post, watch the cold pooling start to build in North Scandinavia!
Dean
Channel low too far South on this run......worth watching https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/2017/12/04/basis00/ukuk/rart/17121100_2_0400.gif
Channel low too far South on this run......worth watching
https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/2017/12/04/basis00/ukuk/rart/17121100_2_0400.gif
On the 06Z the first one is again too far south but at T180 a second one just about delivers!
Hints of an easterly in FI too.
If nothing else, its just nice to see an LP head under a HP northerly toppler than run over the top.
First time - well, maybe 7-8 yrs since i saw that happen, (at this point in the charts), last?
If nothing else, its just nice to see an LP head under a HP northerly toppler than run over the top. First time - well, maybe 7-8 yrs since i saw that happen, (at this point in the charts), last?
Did that not happen in 2013?
Well the GFS ends on a pretty perfect set-up to start the Christmas break :)It's been trying to do this for a while but this is the first time we've seen a proper Scandi high crop up for a while. Heights over Greenland as well which would hopefully encourage trough disruption and send a low underneath to squeeze some of that cold air our way. Yes please.
My only quibble would be the rather pathetic cold pool to the east, but never mind!
That wasnt a northerly toppler - that was more a block to the east with slider lows running up then deflecting south east.
Isn't that because it’s not a toppler? There’s enough of an upper high to prevent that pulse of energy driving through. A bit like pushing at the lower part of a balloon instead of the upper part.
It’s such a delicate balancing act with sliders: too little energy and they slip away SSE and stay to the west; too much and they can end up too far east and put southern/western areas the wrong side of the cold/mild divide. This looks like the former.
GEM is fun this morning with a trough disrupting and spawning a closed low as it heads SE. Lots of snow for some off this:
ECM clusters anyone
Not quite sure what the bottom charts indicate - any Icelandic speakers here?
Not often I say it, but I'm with GtW on this, and don't view this strictly as a toppler situation. I thought you were just talking about energy sliding under blocking to our north (2013 had a few different scenarios that delivered here, including, IIRC, blocking to our N/NW?)
Yeh, I realise this hasnt (yet) turned into a toppler situation. Theres obvs better connection to GH at this point.
My point i suppose if there is one.. is that in years gone by - after say 10 days of model following this feature, the HP has maintained its desire to stay with a northern GH link bias... rather than dissolving to the south and introducing milder air via Iceland (the later aspect always has me saying that through gritted teeth)
I suppose this should be in the moaning thread on some level - as its a bit of a rant at our weather.
Observed a week or so back that more back that fora really cold northerly LP needed to be located close to east of England.Also observed that models often started off with this set up but that gradually nearer the time LP location tended to shift further NE bringing in a more north westerly flow.Looks as if this may happen.
Yes, that is the major change with this initial cold set up, well in the modeling anyway. It does seem to happen annoyingly often but the background appears more set this time for other opportunities along the line as well as this one, which even with that shift N.E of the LP, still looks reasonably potent 4 days out.
ECM clusters anyone Not quite sure what the bottom charts indicate - any Icelandic speakers here?
The first two are ‘text book examples’ of a positive and negative NAO: the third one seems to translate as the current pattern; not sure about the 4th - Google translate says it means ‘sorry’...!
The 06 h has the ideal evolution we are hoping for.Starting at 252h a depression crosses UK finishing up close to eastern England before moving away.This allow a more northeasterly flow to develop, the development of HP to the northeast and finally an easterly flow over the UK.
Chance of this coming off inevitably low!