Met Office Hadley             13.1c.            Anomaly       2.2c.   Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                          12.81c.            Anomaly       2.30c.

Netweather                       13.35c.            Anomaly       2.96c.

Peasedown St John          13.4c.             Anomaly          3.2c.

Just looked back to the October CET Prediction chart.  Highest Prediction  is  12.20c.    

I think we'd all been stung by August and September, Art, a dizzy honeymoon from June!

Met Office Hadley            13.0c.          Anomaly          2.2c.  Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                          12.82c.        Anomaly            2.31c.

Netweather                       13.27c.        Anomaly            2.88c.

Peasedown St John           13.4c.          Anomaly           3.2c.        

Well at least nobody need feel foolish; if there's one thing this competition proves it's that it's not a reasonable expectation to be able to reliably predict a whole month in advance with an error of less than 1.5*C, although with a good bit of luck you might manage most of the months in one of the years.

Think of it this way for example; the change to chillier weather that we're now seeing could easily have taken place a week ago, in which case the CET movement would have been down instead of up, and we'd probably have finished somewhere in the 11s. 

Long-range guidance had it occurring around that time, but without it having been quite so balmy mid-month. Extremes like that are tough as nails to spot coming in advance although I'll admit that some experimental ways of looking at the MJO and Kelvin Waves do on reflection appear to give some suggestion of anomalously TM-orientated air flows across the UK. Even after more than a decade of increasingly intense involvement in meteorology, I'm still learning!

Looks like a month where every one of us went too high and I think we all went too high in September.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this year’s final table will be the one we all had the greatest prediction error. 

Its been a tricky year 

What will the cool days of the last TWO days show..... How much alteration will it be to the end figure....  

I meant to say we all went too low in September of course. 

It makes it all the more difficult to anticipate the remaining two months. 

Met Office Hadley            12.9c.        Anomaly     2.2c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                          12.59c.      Anomaly       2.08c.

Netweather                       13.8c.        Anomaly       2.79c.

Peasedown St John            13.2c.        Anomaly       3.4c.                      

Met Office Hadley        12.7c.         Anomaly         2.0c. Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                     12.43c.        Anomaly          1.92c.

Netweather                  12.73c.        Anomaly          2.54c.

Peasedown St John      13.0c.         Anomaly          3.oc.                         

The October confirmed figure is 12.35C rounded to 12.4 as a monthly figure

everyone went too low but colin46 was nearest at 12.2C

There's going to be carnage in the competition

That's quite an adjustment. Leaves us in thirteenth position I see. Min CET ended up in 7th. 

Whilst the Met Office CET reporting is still in October

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

It is possible to see the individual daily adjustments to go from "provisional" to "confirmed" and the overall monthly adjustment (which was from 12.56 to 12.35 in this case)

This provisional data file will disappear once the Met Office reporting moves into November, however

In this day and age of full digital reporting and data transfer it seems a bit of an anachronism to have these big month-end adjustments

 Lanky...

 Can you see the report above OK?

 For me it is just a series of numbers, whereas previously it had been formatted.

 What do we need to do to format the data?

 Thanks

Grandad

This is what it looks like on my screen

I use Windows 10 with Firefox Browser - I didn't need to do anything it just appeared like this straight away

Thanks Lanky

I'll have to use a different Browser for it then..

I am not aware that I have problems from any other sites?

Grandad

Apologies but there will be a delay posting the October figures. I have come down with a heavy cold and am not at all well at the moment. Sorry.

Take care GW; I'm sure others will echo appreciation for the huge effort you put into our interest each month.

Here are the final charts for October. Sorry for the delay. A very mild month overall

Overall the Autumn is now above average but not by much. 

Annual CET competition - October update

Despite the very warm October, there have not been too many big changes in the top 10 this month. sussex snow magnet holds on to the top spot. Snowshoe moves up to second spot - highest position since January. speckledjim is up 11 places to 10th.

Full size table October CET competition table (for largest size click once and then click again once page has loaded)