Then came the 00z GFS. Optimal setup for bringing exceptionally warm air our way and with low enough moisture to allow some sun each day lifting temps widely into the high teens with a few spots into the low 20s each day 26th-29th and with already very mild conditions having occurred 23rd-25th.
Result from the raw numbers is a monthly CET estimate at least a little above 13.5*C and around 3*C above the LTA. Truly exceptional.
ECM breaks the southerly down on 27th so it remains far from sorted whether we'll be challenging records or just having a very mild month on our hands.
In a way, I actually find it a bit disappointing that this October is running for the record warmest. It doesn't feel like it's been a particularly warm, summery October (the only exception to this could be last weekend). In fact it's felt quite chilly and been fairly cloudy and wet around here. Contrast this one to some of the other record or near-record breakers and it's vastly different.
October 1921 had that incredible heat wave in the first 10 days, with nearly every day above 25C across the country. Even after the main heat it remained pleasantly warm and sunny for the most part with thunderstorms at times.
Octobers 1959 and 1969 again had lots of warm, dry weather with even exceptional warmth at times as well. Again, October 1995 followed similar suit also.
To put it simply, this one doesn't feel like it "deserves" the record.
Edited by user
20 October 2017 11:04:10
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