FI and all that but some interesting differences between the GFS and ECM tonight at T240. GFS has HP over the NE US and much more in the way of HP for us. The hurricane shown to wander up the US coast runs in to the HP and fizzles. Further down the line this leads to a decent HP plonked over the UK with some warm temps.

Whereas the ECM has the HP further West and allows the hurricane to spin up the coast, merge with another LP nearly intact and presumably wander towards us. Whether this would serve to inflate HP over or near us or knock it out the way giving us a spell of wet and windy weather is debatable. Be interesting to see how this pans out.

GFS less optimistic this morning with that hurricane (extra-tropical Jose) settin up a mid-Atlantic block and giving us a week of easterlies from Sat 23rd - but that's all a long way off and may never happen

Whether or not they are onto something at such great range but FI for all main models are showing more HP influence out at day 10, so maybe a settling down towards month end.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_240_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

Yes it is looking quite encouraging, especially as I am heading to France in 10 days' time. The ensembles have been all over the place but now seem to have decisively flipped to a warm and dry picture just as I arrive!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Toulouse_ens.png

Brief pulses of warm air from the south shown here on GFS 0z

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx,

nicely timed to coincide with weekends 24 Sep and Oct 1 but two successive hurricanes forecast to make their way up the US East Coast are going to inject too much energy into the Atlantic, as they combine with the regular LPs, for any settled spell to last.

Some chilly nights coming up

Ground frost could be on the cards

The weather does what it likes.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 

Long time I have not posted here.

From today I will just state the obvious situation shown on the GFS and UKMO and ECMWF and any features that are developed at within the 72-144 timeframe.

Mild and Warm by Wednesday next week at day 5 from today. NW and W Unsettled with rain and showers and some cloudy spells SW winds as well, while the SE parts see some brighter and drier weather and closer to high pressure and have lighter winds.

There is no point for me to participate in time wasting checking who is saying what as I have got no time for that.

Nothing in particular of any interest at the moment, but the UK will be staying cloudy as well as bright and sunny from today to Tuesday, and we will be continuing to see and experience normal September temperatures for most, and chilly to cold nights for some of us.

That is all I can see for now.

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There's quite a few signs of that one.

It's been ages since anything really caught my attention in the model output (cool and showery doesn't really cut it for me in terms of the model output; the experience of it taking place in reality is what matters in such conditions), but I am certainly becoming interested in what is a fairly consistent signal for a multitude of tropical cyclones to help line up a powerful surge of warmth and moisture that heads well NE while becoming increasingly confined to the upper atmosphere due to surface modification. 

This reduces the direct feed of warmth to the UK which may well be totally offset by cool nights, but aloft it results in a large expanse of anomalously warm air over and to the N. of Scandinavia which will then tend to slowly sink down to the surface, promoting higher than usual surface pressure for a lengthy period i.e. a Scandinavian blocking high.

A similar process tried to occur about a month ago, but surface heating was still enough to offset the sinking motion to some extent, resulting in a more intermittent manifestation of high pressure NE of the UK. This time around, the surface heating will be minimal and so the blocking high looks a good bet (though still not guaranteed of course).

What's more, we've already got a push of warm air aloft on Monday helping to develop strong blocking to the east of Scandinavia over the following 5 days, meaning there should be a strong blocking high already in place that can simply extend or move west to Scandinavia.

Why is this of such interest to me when it's way to early for wintry impacts, you may be wondering?

Well - such extensive and strong blocking will potentially allow us to dry out a bit for starters, but more significantly it could both interfere with the development of the tropospheric polar vortex late Sep through early Oct, and - as Four has alluded to already (good spot) - cool the Eurasian surface at the high latitudes sufficiently to encourage an early onset of snow cover advance. Of course, to get the precipitation for a good October SAI there needs to be lows undercutting the blocking highs... but now I'm getting way, way ahead of myself .

After all, the models were once suggesting this sort of thing for mid-September but positioned a bit further east, which was enough for me to try out a fairly warm CET estimate.

The GFS, UKMO 00z run today and yesterday's 12z ECMWF model output has SE and S Europe Low Pressure, Nor'easter Low over Sweden aka Scandy Baltic Sea Low, Norwegian High NNE Europe and West Central Europe trending from Low to High Pressure.

NW and N Atlantic PV Low, Greenland Central and NW NE Blocking High.

West and SW and NW United Kingdom affected by Low Pressure's eastern side!!.

Still a chance for the Sceuro High N Europe High to be boosted up by Cyclogenesis over NW and N Atlantic going across the North Pole and Central Arctic Sea.  It could turn warm at times in the South and East UK as well as across West and Central Europe, and mostly dry and benign mundane boring weather type.

😆😄🌫🌞.

GFS 0z sequence shows identifiable remnants of Hurricane Maria arriving as a depression directly over the Uk on Oct 1st - strong winds all gone, but would produce a deal of rain.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Just remember what an impressive Scandi high did for November 1993 - and remember the rest of the winter was mild.

The old saying goes like this. "If ice in November may bear a duck - then the winter will consist of slush and muck".

Actually December was rather cold here. I remember it clearly as it was during my first few months in Aberdeen. Following the cold October and November I wondered what I had let myself in for!

Scandi High or not this autumn has been and continues to look like autumn rather than the continuation of summer that we have become used to in recent Septembers.

I certainly agree with you there Doc. In fact several of my mates whom I've just had lunch with today have agreed that this September feels more like October. I wonder whether things maybe somewhat different this year.

Sorry to wander OT here.

I don't know what the highest temperature we have had anywhere in the UK so far this September is, but as far as I know we've been nowhere near even getting close to the 34C that was recorded on 13th September last year. Quite different to many Septembers we have seen going back as far as 1991.

Up and away here is the latest from the GFS 12z cup of tea, as well as the UKMO 12z and ECMWF 00z run of today.

At t120 to t168 it looks like some warmer and drier conditions with Sceuro High aka Bartlett looks set to influence us.

That means from Saturday or the Sunday onwards after this week's weekdays are over, Sunday and Monday warm Southerly flow from Spain and NW Africa could draw in temperatures going up to 25 to 27 deg. C again.

Polar Vortex PV over NW and N Atlantic South SW and SE and E Greenland and through to Iceland Low Pressure being shown wrappng up into a major windy and rainy set of runs as seen at 168 and 192 hrs time.

This prediction is worth getting us in NW Europe UK interested as far as warmth and dryness and sunshine is concerned.

I'd see what these models make of this as this upcoming week goes on, maybe this forecast can change but this trend is showing a very good set up indeed- A NW Africa W Europe and UK Spanish Plume event is looking plausible.

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It might turn windy with Low Pressure in early October but there is a chance of a thundery breakdown if we get a sprout of very warm and humid weather- I'd enjoy some more of this!.

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Indeed. People are so used to it being warmer then the long term average, it stands out when the weather is average or a bit below.

I doubt the cooler spell of weather we have had recently has any bearing on the forthcoming late Autumn and Winter. 

And a zonal Westerly pattern will take hold when it matters