ECM Op is overcooking the low for next Sunday when viewing the London ens

Good old fashioned autumnal blast later this week if the the models are to be believed.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=00&charthour=180&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Longer term is interesting and very uncertain.

Plenty still to be resolved with the low at the weekend as these 3 charts for Sunday show

GEM shows pressure starting to rise through Tuesday and Wednesday bringing with it some warmer air from the south west

Two days on and the mean SLP dropped on today's 12z and the Op now sits within the ensemble spread

Still the potential for quite a potent LP for early September.

GEF12z looking pretty unsettled and autumnal.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

GFS shows low pressure moving down the country during Sunday and into Monday

This then begins to pull away for Tuesday allowing pressure to rise a bit in the south and the rain begins to turn more patchy

The ECM mean for London takes pressure from 995mb to just under 1010mb in 24hrs early next week

GFS 0z brings in a depressing sequence of lows to sit over Britain (now you know why they're called depressions) at regular intervals - 11, 16, 20 Sep; supported by ECM though less extreme. The jetstream forecast shows why this might happen

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=

The only ray of hope comes from the MetO - weather for the week ahead suggesting the mid-Atlantic high setting up much closer to Ireland with dry and settled conditions for nearly all UK though cool.

The London mean has deepened Monday's low further on the 00z

12z it was 995mb

00z it's now down to nearly 985mb

Pressure on Tuesday at 00z is about 5mb lower than the mean had last night from Tuesday onwards it looks like a steady rise in pressure with it getting close to 1020mb by the 16th

Quite a rapid rise in pressure between 12z Monday and 12z Tuesday

GEM shows warmer air and high pressure moving in from mid next week

ECM is taking a similar route to some of the other models with Sunday's low pulling away during Monday allowing some higher pressure to build in for Tuesday

By Wednesday we are back to a westerly flow as a deep low tracks north west of Scotland driest the further south you are and temps recovering for many away from the far north

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

GFS and ECM both in agreement for a ridge of higher pressure on Tuesday UKMO getting there

Bit of a blink and you'll miss it affair though

ECM has a glimmer of hope at the end of its run with HP toppling over us and a fair bit of warmer air involved - not convinced it'd stick around for too long but probably enough for 3-4 days of chiefly dry and warm weather, depending on cloud amounts.

GFS not so keen on the idea of the HP toppling over us at the same time frame and has more LP influence.

Unsettled in the near term, probably unsettled in the mid term with the odd glimmer of hope for some drier stuff.

Bit different to last year!

Both GFS and ECM concur on a warm dry spell in about 9-10 days' time, with ECM making more of it. Continuong unsettled in the immediate future,

Clutching a straws

As Marcus might say, just for fun.... the first GFS tease of the season:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017091000/gfsnh-0-384.png?0

I've been so busy looking over the waters I've missed what is going on right on my own doorstep! Are we really to see rapid cyclogenisis occurring over us the next few days? Is this why the MetO warnings for wind ( 70 mph is 4 shy for Hurricane force) are out??

Yup the progged dryer interlude is still there in both the GFS and ECM mid-term. GFS seems rather keener on this being something of a pattern change for the UK at least and keeps HP influencing us for quite a while. ECM less keen and the t240 chart suggests another autumnal spell to me.

850s aren't all that high for the time of year (initially at least, the GFS toys with some warmer but not too warm 850s) so one thing to watch for in the settled interlude/spell is some cold night time temps to go with what will hopefully be some pleasant autumn sunshine.

Given the expected hurricane wandering up the east coast of the US I suspect FI will be even more useless than usual until they resolve where that ends up and where the energy goes etc.

As an OT aside this has certainly been an unusually autumnal start to September here - generally we rarely see properly wet and windy stuff until the last third of the month or even early October. 

Arpege 12z going for 75mph gusts early on Wed.

I think we might see this being named as Storm Aileen quite soon, Brian.