Here’s an update from me on my latest prognosis for the rest of Autumn 2017.
Last month there were mixed signals for October 2017, but I think the signal is now clearer regarding the likely synoptic pattern, due to subtle changes in various indices (ie ENSO, QBO) over the last month.
So, the overall signal for October now is pointing much more to a drier and more Anticyclonic-based month, with a fairly strong HP anomaly centred close to the UK, perhaps slightly to the east of the UK, allowing a warm S to SE flow on occasions. Temperatures probably ending up close to average to slightly above. Max temps may end up above normal with some chilly nights offsetting this somewhat.
November looks like being quite a cold month now but probably quite dry. Predominantly winds from the W or NW. The High Pressure anomaly looks like relocating into the North Atlantic, allowing spells of cool north to NE winds at times, possibly some significant cold from the north for a time. In fact out of the 5 current matches for Autumn 2017, (1962, 1985,2005, 2007, 2008), at least four of these Novembers featured a wintry spell at some stage.
In Summary:
October 2017: Quite dry, and anticyclonic at times.
November 2017: Cool and rather dry.
Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.