Agree with that Kevin- hopefully it's an outlier.

GFS 12z at the same timeframe looks a lot less bad, IMO.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Who said this?  No prizes for correct answer.

stunning summer so far here. Almost constant warm/hot conditions, interspersed with occasional days of average temps and barely any rain of note. Easily the best start to a summer for years. 

We had 9 days of " Stonking " weather in June , yes and probaly 5 days of very good weather in July, but that to me does not constitute a great summer. Like others have said its down to opinion on how you perceive a good summer. 

with the latest signals of unsettled weather I think it will be average to poor overall.

last really long, consistant summer we had was 1995, although 2003 was very good and also 2006, not as long lasting

Hasn't September tended to be warm and settled the last few years? Hopefullty 2017 will follow the trend and make up for a dismal August.

The last August we could class as 'very good' or above was 2003. Since then, most Augusts have been below average in terms of sunny & hot spells.

Average temps may not seem to have taken a hit, but that feels like it's more a combination of mild nights and consistently average maxes in cloudy conditions.

Why are people surprised by poor weather in this country. 10 out of 30 days are typically the wet days, which so far, hasnt been far from the truth again this month.

I do fear people hark back to a time when they believed summers were constantly sunny and hot. We live in Britain, surely we know we dont get that kind of weather here - well consistently anyway. If we do get cold weather in the winter - that is unusual. same too is dry setled and warm weather in the summer. Its the exception to the rule for a country so far north and surrounded by water.

One word for this summer - Average.

My veg and plants have all grown well this year.

Agree about 1995- that is still the best summer overall I can remember in my part of the world. The hot, dry & settled weather really was dominant that summer from mid-June onwards in a way that hasn't been the case with any summer since. 2003 and 2006, although also good, were not quite as persistently settled as 1995 and the good weather in both of those summers seemed to be interrupted more by brief unsettled spells during June and July. August was a bit of a let-down that year though as others have commented in the past.

A couple of better days on the latest ecm but some really ugly charts on days 8 and 9. We could be talking flooding next week. Astonishing how the weather just flipped overnight back in late July. No sign of any return to summer tonight.

Doesn't surprise me at all. If anyone can show some charts with some decent improvement - Please show them now.

A pattern change to unsettled weather around the start of the last third of July is usually bad news for the remainder of summer, from my experience.

This year looks like being a classic example.

Perhaps we will get some better looking model output in September ( a la 1985) which will hopefully verify.

Though, to those in the North and Scotland, it will probably feel like scoring from a penalty in the fifth minute of injury time at the end of the match... when you're 7-0 down.

St Swithin's Day - 15 July!

If on St Swithin's day do rain/ for 40 days it will remain

If St Swithin's day be fair / for 40 days 'twill rain no more.

Who needs computer models?

Looks potentially wet during the middle of the month. Drier spells before and after.

Still all it would take to break the pattern is a more robust HP and less influence from the jet and things would look much better. Any bets on whether this happens towards the end of the month, ready for September?

Convinced now that the blocking high over central & eastern Europe is having a big effect on our bad spell of weather. I would say in summer it has a bigger effect than the Greenland high? Just looked at Bolty's historical vid of 1990 , and it shows on the models ,to the east more lows and also that they are on the cooler side of the high. For some reason the Azores high struggles to build strongly over the western and northern parts, or join up.

Will keep looking at the models for the blocking high to weaken, although I think summer will be pretty much over by then.

[quote=severnside;921425]

Convinced now that the blocking high over central & eastern Europe is having a big effect on our bad spell of weather. I would say in summer it has a bigger effect than the Greenland high? Just looked at Bolty's historical vid of 1990 , and it shows on the models ,to the east more lows and also that they are on the cooler side of the high. For some reason the Azores high struggles to build strongly over the western and northern parts, or join up.

Will keep looking at the models for the blocking high to weaken, although I think summer will be pretty much over by then.

[/quote}

Normally Greenland HP that linked with Scandi HP are very good for us because it deliver easterly winds that bring very cold air in winter and hot air in summer.  But when people say on the models that showing northern blocking, I didn't see any yet that show HP in Greenland and Scandi areas which we saw it last year Sept to October that brought the heatwave and then below average temps quite quickly in October.  HP anywhere really cannot stay in situ forever so eventually the one in the East that had been stuck there for too long will force to move further east as it should be due to W to E natural flow for N Hemisphere.

Plus Azores HP still can move in despite the HP to the east as it will link with it like it does linking of Greenland and Scandi HP that bring easterly winds all the way to USA.

Is this the start of something from GEM ? they have better output than ECMF at the moment, remember it was GEM that picked up the late MAY heat and good weather. Or just more wishful thinking and waiting.

Light appearing at the end of the tunnel as agreement grows for a return of warmth and high pressure.

Nice gfs this morning ecm probably more realistic and is basically crap. GEM a half way house.

GFS OP a considerable outlier this morning, we must favour a continuation of cool and unsettled conditions as the more likely as we close out the Summer. 

As I remember, the ECM 12z op from yesterday evening looked a little less unsettled towards the end of the run than this morning's run does.

More runs are needed IMHO.

The whole of that statement is factually inaccurate. The GFS Op is at the top end of the ENS this morning but it is not an outlier, let along a considerable outlier.

What we can see from the ENS very clearly is that we have another rather cool week to come this week. From next Sunday (20th) the ENS suddenly develops huge scatter. Basically anything is possible for the following week from a continuation of cool conditions to something very warm or a return to average. So to say we must favour a continuation of cool conditions is totally misleading.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=ENS&bw=

GEM ENS shows essentially the same thing. The scatter might look less but that is only because the scale on the vertical side of the chart is different because one run goes a bit bonkers and gets well above 20C.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=ENS&bw=

Looking at just the op runs there is good agreement between GFS, GEM and ECM of a warm up in a weeks time. But this has to be with low confidence at the moment given the scatter in the ENS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=OP&bw=