Nice to see 'potential' moving forward into the short ensembles!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=222&ext=1&y=249&run=18&runpara=0 

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Even more impressive for London!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=313&ext=1&y=127&run=18&runpara=0 

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Even more impressive for London!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=313&ext=1&y=127&run=18&runpara=0

very interesting 9th looks like changeover day

Some stunning GEFS, I hope for once, one of the good ones make's it to T-0 

GEFS:
Good news: 13 (I may have miscounted - difficult when there are so many cross-crossing lines) cross the -10c line (2, nearly 3, cross the -15c line) at t+168c. Best of winter to date!

Bad news: still plenty of scatter and many runs keep deep cold at bay.

However, odds of a proper, though perhaps brief, cold easterly spell are increasing... approaching 50% now i'd say, which still means it is more likely that we won't get such a spell, so one should be surprised if it doesn't come off.

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">http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=313&ext=1&y=127&run=18&runpara=0

very interesting 9th looks like changeover day

Off topic but bloody typical. The very day I fly out to Australia for 3 weeks!!! Grrrrrrr. Uncanny how often this seems to happen. 😂😂😂 Good luck cold hunters.

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I agree that the critical period is the 8th/9th Feb. Rarely do the ensembles go from such tight agreement to a 15C spread in the space of 36 hours. That sort of spread, yes, but not from such a tight knit pack in such a short space of time. For the initial attempt though from the 8th the spread is pretty much 0C to -15C and the operational at -10C has more support than expected. So I think this is a bit different though unpredictable - a bit like the last twelve months really!

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pub run on board - interesting times ahead.....

UKMO 120

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GFS 120

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Cold pool hits the UK brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

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Interesting evolution on GFS later stages !! Northern blocking strong

GFS finds a way to block the coldest air in the medium range. Might be one of the less favourable OP solutions that were there in the suite last night.
Going to be an interesting morning discussion 😉

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Dutch site is suggesting cooling trend, but dry next week

 

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

 

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My main concern would be the Azores high, I can see us easily ending up in a completely slack flow (col) while all the energy goes south into Southern Europe. Pressure then rising to the north west with a vain attempt at a northerly (toppler). Happens time and time again.

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We are not there yet. There are still too many GEFS not playing ball. The ECM has some work to do at 144 hours too.

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Can't post charts on this device but from what I've seen tonight I'm not going to dust the sleigh off yet. IMO we'll end up with a slack continental drift into principally Eastern and NE areas with nothing more than a flurry of snow from low stratus type cloud while the South and West remain on the periphery of milder Atlantic air encroachment. I will add that I don't see that encroachment as a major battleground scenario as I feel pressure will be too high to the SW forcing the Jet Stream to be pushed NE to the NW of Britain and not allowing enough energy under the ridge or undercutting as is the term used here. So rather cold and principally dry is the overall message. Not saying I'm right but taking all models and output as a whole on tonight's 12zs I think that's where this will end up by the end of next week.

z

That is my view as well and unfortunately the MetO agree with us and a cold, dry cloudy spell with a light easterly is the most likely outcome whatever the excitable models say.

Andy

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Looking at the ECM so far the sound of screeching brakes and hand break turns is deafening, any proper cold weather pushed well into FI.

MetO looks OK but neither ECM or MetO are predicting snow for the bulk of the U.K. within the reliabletime frame so you can understand the MetO BBC latest MRF of a dry cold outlook.

Andy

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We are not there yet. There are still too many GEFS not playing ball. The ECM has some work to do at 144 hours too.

Indeed, nothing's ever certain - but it remains the fact today that the majority of GEFS members bring sub-10C 850s in the next week or so. Last night's 18z saw a massive boost in -10C members and that's been sustained this morning.

Having said all that, it looks to me as if the models are firming up a bit on it being a short period of colder 850s, assuming they actually reach us that is! Those cold GEFS members this morning show a day or two of sub -10s, with a marked warming as the upper cold pool moves swiftly away afterwards. Last night's EPS looked similar, from what I can tell.

It's worth mentioning though that the classic spells of the 80s / 90s weren't all about double-digit negative 850s. They featured and they were the bits that gave the dumpings of snow, but in an easterly as most know you can get away with higher 850s... it just means snow tends to be less heavy and you have to rely on troughs etc rather than pure convection.

That assumes though that an easterly can be sustained. If ECM's op today has anything to say it'll be a case of make the most of it while you can!

PS - I'll say it again, as the old "dry easterly" thing keeps popping up. Troughs can't be predicted with any accuracy more than a couple of days out and the models are rubbish when it comes to convection. As long as we can get that -10C 850 isotherm in from the east, a good deal of us will see snow!

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ECM isn't great.... sure it cools things down from the continent, but it fails to bring in cold uppers with these kept tantalisingly close with mild air reasserting itself by t+240. Along with continued uncertainty with the GEFS and a deep cold spell, or even snap, isn't even 50:50. Still, less than 2 days back the consensus was that we needed to throw a six (we're better than that) and just 4 days ago it was a 1% chance.... One day we'll get something special, but I fear this winter will go down as, perhaps more than any other, the one that promised so much yet delivered so little.... We'll know by Sunday.

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