http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850birmingham0.png?cb=25

On its own as was expected I guess...................might be a trend setter

Classic end to the 18z GFS some nice looking runs in the ENS to 

P16 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122418/gens-16-1-336.png 

Merry Christmas 

That's a 2010 rerun there....

Of greater interest in tonight's models for me is the ECM's attempts to introduce mid-Atlantic riding around T192.  For any realistic hope of cold weather need to see this moving consistently towards the 120-144 timeframe over the next couple of days without any significant delay.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

Was thinking exactly the same. Nearly every Christmas we get stellar charts for a couple of days....then they return to normal.

Seasons Greetings Andy. The OP is an outlier of sorts but steady as she goes across the board this morning.

Incidentally, I think the NWx server has been hacked - it's not responding.

Merry Christmas!

Certainly is Nick

Merry Xmas to all

It is now 

Enjoy!

Merry Christmas TWOers , some nice output this morning especially from the big two hopefully we continue to shuffle towards a decent cold spell just after the new year.

Let's see if it's still there in a week's time. :P

This is the unlikely and has always been. I will be very surprised to see a 15C let alone 18C. 

The Beeb now down to 7c-8c................not sure where they were coming from with their high teen forecast for Boxing Day

Out to 234 hrs, and the 06z GFS is virtually identical to the 00z. Extraordinary in this sort of set-up.

Good to see that all-important mid-Atlantic block firmly in place as soon as 144 hrs. Everything else can take care of itself from there imo.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0

I'd be a lot happier if the UKMO model were on board at that stage though. That's tends to be the one that foresees any scuppering of this sort of thing in my experience.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

not according to BBC, the Christmas Day record of 15.6C is under threat, quite notable dont you think? 

Back to model land,, I would hazard a guess that something is stirring from up north, wether it's a full on cold spell or a two day toppler remains to be seen.

pattern continues to evolve as to where the high ends up. 06z op gives us a Murr sausage which is fine for southern areas, but its a dangerous evolution

Its doesn't look as if we can get a true Greenland high this time, but we need our to prop up wherever it ends up. Could still go belly up this, 12zs will be important this evening assuming we can trust the data!

Merry Christmas to everyone on TWO. 

You can't trust the models today, but you could yesterday, and all the signs were still there! 

Very interesting stuff. :-) 

In the TWO winter forecast I dropped subtle hints that this winter could have similarities with 198 (7 or 8 I can never remember which one it was). Let's wait and see if that turns out to be the case. 

Have to say looking like the record could be broken - already (!) at 15c in Doncaster according to here:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Looks like the NE could be the favoured hot spot but even down here already 13c and sunny so if it continues I would not be surprised to see a 16.5 or 17c somewhere.  

Anyway back to MO and some very promising synoptics now being churned out by the big two - however as Retron says let's see if it's still there post Christmas but overall the signal for something chilly in early January has been flirted with in the output for a while now. May be a brief cold snap or may be something more - next week's runs IF they are showing the same will get me more interested but for now it's just the same as one of those JFF CFS runs as too far away.

Have a good Christmas everyone. 

I hope it's the former - 1988 was a total mild fest I seem to remember - 87 had the January and March cold spells with both being very notable.