It looks like Ian@ Shropshire does not like discussing the Model Output related stuff.

I suggest we do not take us every Winter day on the bandwagon of AGW or Modern Winter Epic inflammatory conjecture.

We can discuss Bartlett and Azores and NW to N and NE raging Zonal train days and weeks if the models show them every day and week.

Those who get lucky when we do get Greenland And Iceland Blocking Mid N Atlantic High P ridging and blocking or a Cold NW to SE over UK and West to NW Europe Polar Vortex then I hope we will skip sharing our other thoughts that oppose cold frosty and wintry weather and hope so that the Moderators aka Michael and Joe Bloggs can remove those posts that deem necessary doing!!!.

We are sending the Polar Frontal Jetstream Lows on a West to East and NE track this December and we have yet to pass 31st December and already the silly posters like Shropshire Ian is not getting any nods from em all.  Your backing up nothing in your dreadful stances.😆🔚.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1201.gif 

GFS 12z so far..

A bit blowy on Christmas Day but thankfully nowhere near as bad as it could have been http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.gif

Very mild..

Midnight into Boxing Day it's a different story and it could turn pretty wintry in parts of Scotland http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.gif Boxing Day itself it'll feel seasonal for most http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.gif

Moving into Tuesday 27th HP pushes in and we get the first of our overnight frosts. In fact Tuesday 27th should be a cracking day for many.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.gif

Another frost for some into Wednesday morning with continental SE'ly winds http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

Then another one for some into Thursday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.gif

Friday night into NYE more of a SW'ly tilt, but with more signs of amplification in the Atlantic and a weaker PV. FI, FWIW, shows signs of a toppler scenario, just like the 06z. 

In summary, very mild on Christmas Day, less stormy than it could have been (phew), cold on Boxing Day with snow for some in Scotland, then turning colder and frosty with SE'lies up until NYE (albeit less cold in the NW). 

After that, uncertain, but no real signs of extended zonality or especially mild weather.

Yes the talk of relentless zonality now looks a bit presumptuous! 

Bartlett. 

Apart from that, what Joe says. Potentially both very mild and then wintry on Christmas Day (the latter if the cold front moves through fast enough) and yes some very high pressure in the south at times.

the BBC forecast looks rather sunny here beyond Christmas. 

GFS 12z drops the northerly but GEM has a good one that will last. Shame its a poor model

Martin

one would expect that, but the op and control are pants and more likely to be right

Thanks for the useful summary of the Chrsitmas.At least it is more intereting than the dreary,boring  longer term runs being produced by GFS

No real sign of excitement in the ENS

On Jan 1st 60:40 HP:Zonal 

On Jan 7th 50:50 HP:zonal with little sign of any a large clusters of HP type.

Maybe just maybe the models might be about to give us a Christmas present . Gem looking good at day 10 , decent signs elsewhere 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.html

.....and now a glimmer of hope from the ECM at 240 hours

Yes, I'm not surprised as quite often in these setups the GEM and ECM show similar scenarios. I'd say at ten days out it is of interest value only however it does tie in with the Met Office extended outlook.

Well done! Unless you had a heads up!

Massive noreaster setting up?  We've been here before with day 10 Ecm charts but you never know.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

No, not at all - just based on past experience (and I admit I was drafting my "oops, bad call by me" post in advance just in case. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

With a pattern followed by the AO gradually trending negative:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif 

Perhaps January will be as much a surprise as December, but for the right reasons? (From a coldies perspective)

It's quite often been the case that GEM and ECM Ops mirror each other IMO, so I wasn't surprised to see ECM go for something similar into FI

Yes indeed you're right, although I may have mentioned that above too. 

Interesting. Let's hope we see something similar in tomorrow's ECM runs.