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Yes indeed you're right, although I may have mentioned that above too.
Originally Posted by: doctormog
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Last few frames of the north Atlantic 850hPa temp profile on the ECM:
Hopefully a set up something like this would aid the development of a polar low or trough feature down the line.
East Galway, Ireland.
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Good trends tonight but still a long way before we can get confident about a colder outcome.
Things are heading in the right direction though. 4 days ago there was talk of extended zonality, a couple of days ago we moved towards a more blocked set up with a UK high resident, now the block is showing signs of moving to the west of the UK.
The trend is to move the block ever northward and westward...lets hope this trend continues and we end up with a decent Greenland block.
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11
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By the time everybody returns to work in the new year I think we'll be in the throws of a major pattern change.
Let the storminess blow through and the excitement will follow!
Got a good feeling about tomorrow's output.By the time everybody returns to work in the new year I think we'll be in the throws of a major pattern change.Let the storminess blow through and the excitement will follow!
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
I'm feeling it too.
[quote=Gusty;851709]
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hopefully a cracker?
ECM MSLP spread for a data point located between SW Iceland and the southern tip of Greenland:
Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea
Steve is feeling a cream cracker too
Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY
Originally Posted by: Gusty
Let's hope for a Frank Carson style cracker!
"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine
thanks Chunks. That's great news.... for now anyway.
Only concern I would have going by that graph is that the op seems to be one of the more optimistic scenarios from tonight's ens, but we'll see as going by the overall trend of them, something seems to be stirring up there.
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122218/gfsnh-0-228.png?18
At last some cheer from an 18z GFS run
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
GFS pub run goes the same way as the ECM 12z at the 234 hrs/240 hrs mark:
Amazing scenes. Has this ever happened before in FI with a scenario you actually WANT to transpire?
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Getting closer to the reliable time frame (dare i say it).
Originally Posted by: Sinky1970
No, you dare not
An interesting run but it's not called the pub run for no reason.
Eye candy if nothing else http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.gif
Current conditions (personal WS)
18z is so wildly different to the 12z. I'm not convinced by such a rapid change to cold. Stunning run though.
Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs
Yes, looks a bit too good to be true and has come out of nowhere. Stirs up some interest for tomorrow's runs if nothing else.
I'll drink to that!!The missing data theory is just a drop in the ocean, however there are some loose statistics supporting fractionally poorer verification on Christmas Day.I believe Retron and/ or Quantum has access to this for further detail - not sure if they post here though these days.
Great run from GFS but being realistic I expect it to be a bit of an outlier but how much support will it have ?
As much of a contrast as the 18z is numerous ensemble members in recent runs have been suggesting building heights to the NW in their later frames....
Missing data or not, don't discount it
The only days you should be conscious about less than usual data in the NWP are Christmas Day and Boxing Day.