http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-252.png?18 

and a fair few ens members...but by no means the majority.

Certainly more interest after today's better runs.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-0-300.png?18 

Split of ENS at 2480h  70:30 HP:zonal.However majority of ENS are not like the op.towards the end of FI there more signs of westward shift in HP.

Latest EC46 leaves little to be desired in the longer term but showing the chance of some cold shots into Europe in the shorter range.

At no point did the 18z operational(for London)have less than 5 ensemble runs coming in even colder ( notably the control)....so quite a shift, but this all happens post 192hrs, so caution required

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=226&ext=1&y=252&run=18&runpara=0 

Always the opposite eh!? - Which will prove true? - So far the GFS has been very accurate  - so i'll stick with that.

My concern is that we have been let down so much each time - where did this cold come from ? Is this a cold outlier and will we back to zonal tomorrow!?

This would be my worry. The 12z ECM op is by no means a total outlier in the ensemble, but there are far more perturbations which would leave you wondering what all the fuss was about.

Still. After that 18z GFS op and control this must be the first time this winter that everyone's properly looking forward to what the morning brings. 

T+192 isn't as critical a point as it once was, now that the high res section runs to T+240.

The ECM ensemble rainfall chart shows the dominant anticyclonic conditions:

So, awake and rolling into the 00Z GFS offering and the question is will it be the morning after pill or morning glory? What I'll be surprised to see today is a repeat of the GFS 18Z but to keep momentum towards the projected poleward amplification week 1 January we should expect solidification this morning in the ENS cluster.

Bank bank bank the gfs 0z stunning run an early Christmas present. Could a new year freeze up be on the way?

We have had to be patient, but GFS now sticking to its guns of something more promising as we start the new year.

As sure many will feel however, we need to get a lot closer to the actual date, but there is something there to look at at least.

Let's see if ECM follows suit in 1-1.5 hours time.

Picked a day showing up

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.gif 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn32417.gif 

The key moment appears to be New Year's Day with retrogression occurring

The 00z evolving quickly to this:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

...with a proper nice fat Greenland high & pressure dropping rapidly over Iberia. 
By no means a clear cut pattern follows on this run but a definite trend disrupter supporting the 18z

All eyes on the ecm and tiny tweaks in the Met office extended written poetry.

I found Gemma:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

If by Sunday we have all three majors pumping WAA into the GIN region from 30th Dec then maybe not cork popping time, but we can start blowing up the balloons.

Is that Snowstorm Gemma? 😂

That said, I like the look of P19 😯

Agreed.  The Op and control cast some red meat out which will be quickly consumed by scavenging model watchers.   If nothing else it disrupts the "watching paint dry" type charts of the last few weeks.

Steady as she goes. Continuing in the right direction. Caution needed.

Overall though I'm pleased with what I see here.

Enjoy the festive fun charts while they last. In most of the suites HP is a dominant player in one position or another.... so it's a waiting game to find out where it's going to go. Sadly I think the jet may scupper us, flattening anything trying to gain a foothold north, but encouraging non the less.

Not sure about Gemma, but Gem not so keen

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2016122300/gem-0-240.png?00

Let's see if its Euro playmate follows the same path this morning.

You mean like this?

Heights not looking good in Greenie at 192 on ECM:

Scrooge

Will enjoy these charts as not seen anything like them in ages