Interesting indeed; that North American chart is highly consistent with a strong & stubborn Greenland high pressure cell, or at the least a decent Atlantic block west of the U.K.

Evening -

Well just a minor update -

After a bit of a rollercoaster for the models last week the prospects of more 'unseasonal' blocking continues to tease us like one of the old 1p ' look what the butler saw reels' - lets hope our money doesnt run out when we get to December !!!

We have seen a very sedated vortex early doors this year & as highlighted before October is knocking on the door of a 66 year record - IE the -AO. Whilst perhaps its not a significant record for the UK - in the bigger picture, especially Up past 60N - This is a significant record. It shows a very disjointed & fragmented Vortex.

The record for the month is -1.5 & he were are at the 22nd -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml 

I would say -2 by the 25th is a realistic figure & with a significant trend across today from the 00z ( used for the AO ) to the 12z has been all 1 way..- building a bigger block.
So based on this I think the landing zone will be around -2.25. A record breaker & the only October in history sub -2.


As said - 1 swallow doesnt make a Summer, however today we have seen that potentially for the opener to November the AO/NAO is ramped !

The models are reacting to the overall ensemble mean around that all important 60N zonal wind - This is basically the end result of all the feedbacks fed upwards & downwards into the atmosphere.
I need to go a check what constitutes what speed represents a negative zonal wind however we may be close after todays modelling -

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png 

This is significant dropping below 1 standard deviation from Climotology - & with a double dip - the possibility of dropping past 2.

The strat is also reflecting a split now at day 7 - which is very very different to the October mean

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/nh_strat/nh_stanom.php 

Anyway, more strat features come online for November - from the Berlin site. Which will give us a clearer picture-

So - in a nutshell we are in the best possible place we could ever be on the entry to November.

Also PS - as regards svalbard snowcover,I agree with a post above- the recent october Blocking tendancies have put Svalbard in almost exactly the wrong position for October snow with all the cold going to the East & south of that locale ... for them the Oct snow has almost been wiped off the map in a matter if years !

Cheers

 

Interesting that 1916-17 seems to have been a sever winter, as the previous winter produced an exceptionally mild January, the mildest January on record if I'm not mistaken.

After several mild winters I think that would have been the definite proof that Something Had Changed, and that in the new era of the Modern Winter a season such as 1916-17 was no longer possible.

---

It will be the centennial of the winter 1916-17 this winter. Winter 1916-17 was the first severe winter of the 20th century. It was an extended winter lasting well into April.

 

 

I do love these historical reports.

Is there any from this winter for the NW/Manchester/Liverpool region?

---

 

 

 

 

I do love these historical reports.

Is there any from this winter for the NW/Manchester/Liverpool region?

Aye me too especially those crazy old newspaper headlines "Mid Summer blizzards bury London"

---

@splillo

Note the increasing upward EP flux centered around 60N, now penetrating the lower stratosphere

 

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/790280301033365505/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Fascinating! Now, can anyone explain in layman's terms what it means?

---

 

Fascinating! Now, can anyone explain in layman's terms what it means?

No idea myself the only reply is 'uh oh. That's what I feared the most'

 

No idea myself the only reply is 'uh oh. That's what I feared the most'

---

 

Fascinating! Now, can anyone explain in layman's terms what it means?

Try this fella

 

 

No idea myself the only reply is 'uh oh. That's what I feared the most'

Previous tweets seem  to be concentrating on just American weather/winter  prospects.

 

Fascinating! Now, can anyone explain in layman's terms what it means?

BOOM 

 From my extremely limited knowledge it appears there's a significant warming prognating downwards from the stratosphere to the troposphere resulting in the PV being displaced somewhere over this neck of the woods, I think.

I've just released my prospects to my local community for Winter 2016-17. For anyone interested they can be read on my 'Kilmersdon Weather' Facebook Page.

---

I've just released my prospects to my local community for Winter 2016-17. For anyone interested they can be read on my 'Kilmersdon Weather' Facebook Page.

That will do for me Martin

---

BOOM 

 From my extremely limited knowledge it appears there's a significant warming prognating downwards from the stratosphere to the troposphere resulting in the PV being displaced somewhere over this neck of the woods, I think.

 

Wasn't there a chunk of the PV that relocated to Scandinavia/North Sea in 2010...?

A repeating pattern of stubborn blocking to our NW and a huge low centred just to our east (bringing NW'lies to much of the UK) would be ideal IMO.

 

---

Thre is always a lot of discussion about whether the QBO has any link to winter weather type.Interesting then to read this para in the recent METO "skilful predictions " paper.

 

"To potentially explain  the second winter NAO skill we seek variables that are are both significantly predicted and correlated with the subsequent winter NAO variability.Although the QBO is highly predictable (r=0.71) it is not significantly correlated with the NAO"

@splillo

Note the increasing upward EP flux centered around 60N, now penetrating the lower stratosphere

 

This explains everything.  Set it to 26 12 1962

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyWqxkaQpPw

 

---

 

 

IMO…..  early snow cover in Scandinavia, is the result of synoptics and a 'cold' forcing system opposite/completely different to Atlantic influenced synoptics, which, over the years, i've suggested, diminishes the opportunity for snow cover to readily form early over Scandinavia…. that being the synoptics associated with the jet stream coming across the Atlantic from the SW and heading somewhere to the north of Scandinavia.

 

Strongly connected to this is the progress of developing snow cover in Siberia and this link is interesting -

 

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

 

Quote -Researchers at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) and MIT are taking winter weather forecasting beyond El Niño by investigating the relationship between Siberian snow cover in fall months, and Northern Hemisphere climate variability during the winter. A forecast model developed by AER scientist Judah Cohen has achieved on-target forecasts for major cities in the industrialized countries.

"Weather affects peoples' lives and the global economy on a daily basis," says Anjuli Bamzai, program director in NSF's climate dynamics program. "Improving our ability to predict cold weather and heavy snow has obvious benefits. The success of Cohen's real-time forecasts offers a way to improve our ability to anticipate such important events."

 

This leads to a forecast for North Amewrica -

 

 

Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures - especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.

Credit: Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.

 

Does that include the OPI?

Seriously though, the chart shown here suggests > average temperatures over SE Canada; that could be encouraging, since the last few cruddy winters have seen a real chill over Labrador, Newfoundland etc. I like it.

---

Hoping to see conditions similar to this again this winter, taken just up the road from where I live.