I reckon we're in for a cooler and drier winter than the last four although I'm not expecting anything particularly cold at the moment.

The only semi reliable indicator that can be used to infer anything IMO is solar activity. As Maunder says, sunspot numbers are heading down towards a minimum but are a way off yet. Comparing where we are with the last cycle, I'd say the indicators point to a winter like 2005/6 or 2006/7 rather than 2009/10 or 2010/11.

A concern shared by many this Autumn, who hope for northern blocking in Winter.

I think the poor little sod couldn't take Putin any longer.

The current blocking is really east based rather than the northern blocking that brings us our most sustained cold spells and winters.

For sure the current East based block will break down at some point but the polar vortex is showing a great disinclination to get going this year with warm air being advected into the arctic on both sides of the northern hemisphere.

Even if it does kick in during November one only has to look back to November 2009 to see that an active vortex firing stormy weather our way can still be broken down pretty quickly in time for the winter season proper.

 Completely agree with that. I've never known why some agencies feel obliged to push out their winter forecasts in October or early November other than for financial reasons. I've always thought that what happens during the autumn (not just AO) is helpful in producing a winter forecast. It seems like common sense to me.

Yes having been rushed into producing an early forecast in the past, its important to wait until mid November, especially as things don't look as clear cut as last year.

Solar, yes of course it will. Anything that tries to predict developments has to discuss the most phenomenal recent changes in several hundred years of recorded data.

Facts dont lie that in the last 10 years theres been as negative months broken ( winter ) as positive ones - probably more

S

Ian, given the agenda we all know you love to peddle here, I'm pretty sure you didn't forecast the cold winter of 2009/10 or the exceptional December of 2010.

If your beloved "modern winter" theory had any grain of truth in it, then those major cold spells would almost certainly never have happened, which IIRC is exactly what you spent much of your original spell as a member here trying to convince everyone one of, to no avail I might add.

The SOI ( OPI ) was a theory however what I posted was just facts & figures that totally disprove your love for your modern winter.

To turn it round another way, winter 2009/10, December 2010 and even the cold spells of January and March 2013 proved to be no respecters of the "modern era".

Steve, yes I meant to say OPI - but at the time you were bigging this up as a factor that would/could lead to blocking in the winter months. 

The safest Indicator for me in the modern era that could indicate -ve NAO is solar activity combined with other favourable factors - haven't seen enough YET to make me think that a colder than average winter month is likely. 

yes correct - based on what they put forward -- not what I had looked at-

Anyway heres further evidence to suggest the 1998 modern winter is well & truly extinct -

Top 3 AO / NAO months since the 66 years of measuring     ( 1950 ) 

All I have done is look at years 2000 onwards - however its clear the trending is more towards the latter years

Jan num 1 2015 + 1.79 NAO
Feb num 2 2010 -1.98 NAO
Mar num 3 2005 -1.83 NAO
April num 2 2011 + 2.48 NAO
May num 3 2009 + 1.68 NAO
June num 1 2008 -1.73 NAO
July num 1 2013 -3.18 NAO
Aug num 3 2006 - 1.73 NAO
Sept num 3 2006 -1.62 NAO
Oct num 2 2002 -2.28 NAO
Nov num 2 2010 -1.62 NAO
Dec num 1 2011 +2.52 NAO
Dec num 1 2009 -1.93 NAO

Jan no record
Feb num 1 2010 -4.26 AO
Mar num 1 2013 -3.18 AO
April num 1 2011 + 2.27 AO
May num 3 2002 -1.20 AO
June num 1 2009 -1.35 AO
July num 1 2009 - 1.36 AO
Aug num 3 2010 -1.06 AO
Sep no record
Oct num 1 2009 -1.54 AO
num 1 2016 ????? AO
Nov num 2 2013 + 2.02 AO
Dec num 1 2009 -3.41 AO

16 negative top 3 years with 9 1st positions

6 positive top 3 years with 3 1st positions

The facts speak for themselves, the months especially winter are getting more extreme & the negative index months are more apparent than the positive ones..

S

All very interesting, but 'Father of the large teapot'?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcGEvnuuIsc

Now if we can get another winter like this I'll be more than happy.

"This year is different: current signals suggest that the start to winter is likely to be cooler and drier than in 2015."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/winter-forecast-skill?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter