The Weather Outlook

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Shropshire
07 October 2016 05:38:34

 

Ian? Remember you well...

Seem to remember you lying low for a while when we had those epic winters that you said we'd never experience again. 

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

 

I think December 2010 was 'epic' and winters around that time contained other notable periods, but epic is the wrong word when you compare with some of the previous cold winters.

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Saint Snow
07 October 2016 08:33:14

What we have, without question, seen over the last 29 years is a persistence of such patterns for six weeks or more during the DJF period.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 

Could you be a little more specific, please.

 

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

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Aneurin Bevan

Steve Murr
07 October 2016 09:20:17
Morning -

We all by now know Ians agenda, & there is some truth in the assessment that post 88 there was at least for a while into the 'naughties' things were doomed for snow & we had indeed entered the modern winter -

However that myth is long been dismissed as the global weather patterns are now changing again towards more & more extreme events -

So you could almost have Ians modern winter up to maybe 2007 - then the post modern winter 2008 onwards ...

Of course in a warming climate where our main source of cold is warming at a significantly faster rate than an other area then its easy to conclude that there is some sort of moderation to the cold & that a duplication of any record month of yesteryear ( say 63 ) probably wouldnt produce quite the same depth of cold as it did then -

But thats not the discussion point here - its the assertion that those good ol fashioned winter synoptics are gone for good & that is just plain rubbish - infact rather than let opinion dictate the tone - how about fact?

Since 2008 these are the observed -AO months in Winter / + March. ( records recorded since 1954 )

The all time negative December -AO was recorded in 2009 at - 3.4

This was followed by the all 6th time lowest -AO in Jan 2010 of - 2.58

December 2010 just 1 year later recorded the second lowest -AO on record ( behind 09 ) at -2.6 & of course it was the UKs first negative CET since 1986

March 2013 broke the -AO record of all time at an astonishing - 3.1 ( this after December 2012 was in the top 10 of negative AOs of all time @ -1.9

& finally this snippet...

Since 2008 Octobers -AO record has been broken twice ... 2009 & 2012 - both sub -1.5

October 2016 projected running mean to the 15th is around -2 which puts it in the frame for the all time record.

This is NOT the same.... This is potentially very important towards winter 16/17 with 12/13 being a strong fit analogue

If indeed Oct 16 breaks the AO record then there should be 'some' confidence there will be at least 1 winter month considerably below ave...

Best

S

Brian Gaze
07 October 2016 09:32:38
Steve, I pmd you my em address. If you can send me that chart I'll upload and post.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Steve Murr
07 October 2016 09:37:25
Yeah I just saw that today -

What was the dates again -- what year to current ?

S

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 October 2016 10:43:19

The September QBO remained firmly positive increasing from 10.07 in August to 10.48 in September.This means a total of sixteen consecutive QBO + months  only equaled by 78/79,85/86 and 99/00.Seem likely that values will now fall away but not before the record is broken.What it means in the context of the upcoming winter I don,t know!

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 October 2016 12:19:22

Some stats on the possible link between October and December circulation types.

NAO data covering 1826 to 2105 shows 109 NAO - Octobers and 81 NAO + ones.

The December split has 97 NAO- and 93 NAO+.

You would  therefore expect that 51% of the NAO - Octobers would be followed by  NAO - Decembers.

The actual figures show that following NAO - Octobers only 40% of Decembers were NAO - with 60% NAO +.

So doesn't suggest a very convincing link to cold Decembers!

Brian Gaze
07 October 2016 12:36:17

Yeah I just saw that today -

What was the dates again -- what year to current ?

S

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Thanks for emailing Steve. Here's your 1981 - 2010 chart for comparison:

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Steve Murr
07 October 2016 12:37:25
Roger if your just using + & - as the determination then its almost no use -

You need to filter in a neutral value - poss -1 to + 1 or even +1.5 to -1.5

If not you could be comparing -0.1 v + -0.1 where the difference is neglible -

S

Bertwhistle
07 October 2016 13:50:26

 

 

Do you mean it is easier to predict a mild winter in the UK now or say, at any point in CET history ? 20 out of the last 29 winters have contained 2 or more above average DJFs.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

That takes us back to what...1986?

Okay, then 13 out of the 20 prior to that had mean winter temps>4C.

And of the 30 prior to the extreme 1963, 17 had seasonal temps >4C.

And 60% of the 15 winters commencing 1911 were 5C or more.

And of course we have to select silly numbers like 29 to make the point, as there is always an end to the run.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Steve Murr
07 October 2016 14:21:32
Latest AO ensembles.

Record breaking in 66 years of data.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif 

Bertwhistle
07 October 2016 14:37:36

Latest AO ensembles.
Record breaking in 66 years of data.

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Great link- so if I'm getting this, a -ve AO index means higher pressure in the polar region and therefore a less energetic jet, leading to potentially more southward penetration of Arctic air. This is forecast for about a week's time with a strong agreement in the models. Does it have any bearing on the winter, or just the time around the spikes in the graph?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

David M Porter
07 October 2016 14:38:19

 

 

I think December 2010 was 'epic' and winters around that time contained other notable periods, but epic is the wrong word when you compare with some of the previous cold winters.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

It was "epic" enough in the sense that it was the first month in almost 25 years to record a sub-zero CET and the first December to do so since 1890. And that was after you had spent the best part of a decade trying to convince everyone here that such severe wintry spells had been consigned to the history books because of the arrival of the so-called "modern winter" era, Ian.

And then we had March 2013, another cold month which in your world probably wasn't meant to happen either!

Lenzie, Glasgow

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Maunder Minimum
07 October 2016 15:09:41

">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Great link- so if I'm getting this, a -ve AO index means higher pressure in the polar region and therefore a less energetic jet, leading to potentially more southward penetration of Arctic air. This is forecast for about a week's time with a strong agreement in the models. Does it have any bearing on the winter, or just the time around the spikes in the graph?

I am not sure what the correlation is between negative AO in the autumn and the following winter - It is probably weak . However, 1980 had similar October synoptics as current and forecast, so there is hope for those who yearn for a proper winter.

New world order coming.
roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 October 2016 15:27:13

Roger if your just using + & - as the determination then its almost no use -
You need to filter in a neutral value - poss -1 to + 1 or even +1.5 to -1.5

If not you could be comparing -0.1 v + -0.1 where the difference is neglible -

S

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Will have a go at reworking data to more extreme values.

Steve Murr
07 October 2016 15:29:39
Yeah its a thin line

If the climate wasnt changing +1 to -1 would suffice

However seeing as this Oct is going ultra low - the sample size of sub -1.5 is only 2 !!!!

S

Whether Idle
07 October 2016 15:54:34

1980 had similar October synoptics as current and forecast, so there is hope for those who yearn for a proper winter.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Winter 80/81 was utterly forgettable for many Brits if its cold and snow you're after, but by the standards of the last 4 years it was snowy, but that is an unfair comparison, as at the time, for the populated SE, it was a flop. Though some parts away from the SE had a mid February dumping.  Mean temperatures and average days of snow laying have changed significantly in the past 36 years.

This will make interesting reading:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/4/Snow_Survey_of_Great_Britain__1980-81.pdf

 

 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Bertwhistle
07 October 2016 17:13:54

 

Winter 80/81 was utterly forgettable for many Brits if its cold and snow you're after, but by the standards of the last 4 years it was snowy, but that is an unfair comparison, as at the time, for the populated SE, it was a flop. Though some parts away from the SE had a mid February dumping.  Mean temperatures and average days of snow laying have changed significantly in the past 36 years.

This will make interesting reading:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/4/Snow_Survey_of_Great_Britain__1980-81.pdf

 

 

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

The thing of memory in the 80/81 season was not the February effort, but the bit before official winter started: the end of the first week in November. There have been museum pieces in November at the end (2010, 1891) and middle (1985) but the first week is just clear of October and it wasn't a one-day event...

Here in CS England there was falling snow (very light) on three days. It was bitterly cold in an easterly, not a northerly. There is a time during November when the continent morphs into its winter instar, and there are rogue days in October when snow occurs (usually with a northerly if 2008 and the sleet of 1981 are remembered); but the early cold easterly blast of 1980 was special.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Whether Idle
07 October 2016 17:16:48

 

The thing of memory in the 80/81 season was not the February effort, but the bit before official winter started: the end of the first week in November. There have been museum pieces in November at the end (2010, 1891) and middle (1985) but the first week is just clear of October and it wasn't a one-day event...

Here in CS England there was falling snow (very light) on three days. It was bitterly cold in an easterly, not a northerly. There is a time during November when the continent morphs into its winter instar, and there are rogue days in October when snow occurs (usually with a northerly if 2008 and the sleet of 1981 are remembered); but the early cold easterly blast of 1980 was special.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Yes Bert, that is precisely my point.  there were 5cms of fresh snow on the ground at my house 6-7 November after a fall on 6th in a bitter easterly, and another brief fall on 28th.

The following winter was nondescript.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Winters Tale
07 October 2016 17:23:53

Hi,

I think the current pressure patterns and the -AO value are very interesting as it is an unusual pattern for the time of year, particularly the extent and strength of high pressure over the pole and scandinavia.

If this particular pattern were to last into November it might be interesting to see what implications this would have for the early part of winter and winter as a whole.

However there is a chance that in a few weeks, the pattern could flip once again into a more westerly type pattern just in time for November. So just because the pattern is blocked at the moment, doesn't mean that it will stay so as we head into early winter. But it is interesting at the moment nonetheless...

However, there will be 4 things that I will be looking for as we head into November and approaching December in terms of looking for a colder winter:

1) The extent a nd persistence of northern blocking as we head into and through November

2) Cool or colder than average temperatures as we head through October and November

3) Looking at the key indicators that favour a colder winter such as QBO, NAO, AO etc

4) The strength of the PV and the jet stream as we head into and through November

Very unusual and interesting times in terms of the weather and pressure patterns for sure...

Grant

Bertwhistle
07 October 2016 17:29:09

Hi,

However, there will be 4 things that I will be looking for as we head into November and approaching December in terms of looking for a colder winter:

1) The extent a nd persistence of northern blocking as we head into and through November
2) Cool or colder than average temperatures as we head through October and November
3) Looking at the key indicators that favour a colder winter such as QBO, NAO, AO etc
4) The strength of the PV and the jet stream as we head into and through November

Grant

Originally Posted by: Winters Tale 

...and of course the OPI

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Winters Tale
07 October 2016 18:06:56

Hi Bertwhistle,

 

Oh yes, I forgot the OPI....Whatever the heck that is...

Chunky Pea
07 October 2016 18:40:27

Hi,

I think the current pressure patterns and the -AO value are very interesting as it is an unusual pattern for the time of year, particularly the extent and strength of high pressure over the pole and scandinavia.

If this particular pattern were to last into November it might be interesting to see what implications this would have for the early part of winter and winter as a whole.

Originally Posted by: Winters Tale 

I took a quick look at some stats regarding negative AO values in October since 1950, and of the top five lowest**, all coincided wet Octobers but with varying degrees of temp, so in this regard, this month itself would be getting of to a more unusual start in that it is dry (in the UK at least, as SW Ireland saw record rainfall totals a few days ago with 200mm being recorded in just over 24hrs! )

Just for fun though, of the top five negative AO values in October, most were followed by mostly wet and mild winters, with the exception of 1981-1982, which if famed as being one of the better winters in living memory for snow events.

 

**top five lowest mean AO values for October since 1950: (data from KNMI)

  1. 1960

  2. 1966

  3. 1974

  4. 1979

  5. 1981

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Winters Tale
07 October 2016 19:12:51

Hi Chunky Pea,

That's interesting. Obviously the big eye opener there is 1981 and we all know what happened in the December... On the subject of 1981, that for me, was the most memorable spell of weather I have lived through...even though I was 5 at the time.

I remember being snowed in at my grandparents house who lived outside of Oxford for about 2 or 3 days and all of the neighbours pushing the cars up the bumpy road that they lived down which was a mile long. And not forgetting the bone chilling temperatures either...

Definitely one of the most memorable spells of winter weather we have had along with Jan 87 and Dec 2010 in the past 36 years!

Off topic I know but interesting nonetheless! 

Steve Murr
07 October 2016 20:12:55

 

I took a quick look at some stats regarding negative AO values in October since 1950, and of the top five lowest**, all coincided wet Octobers but with varying degrees of temp, so in this regard, this month itself would be getting of to a more unusual start in that it is dry (in the UK at least, as SW Ireland saw record rainfall totals a few days ago with 200mm being recorded in just over 24hrs! )

Just for fun though, of the top five negative AO values in October, most were followed by mostly wet and mild winters, with the exception of 1981-1982, which if famed as being one of the better winters in living memory for snow events.

 

**top five lowest mean AO values for October since 1950: (data from KNMI)

  1. 1

  1. 1974

  2. 1979

  3. 1981

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

mate - youve missed out the 2 lowest years totally -

2009

2012

 

 

 

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