The first sweeping, ridiculous and blatant trolling of the season. We are almost two months away from the start of the winter and Ian Price is already declaring it over! What absolute poppycock - not one of us can possibly say that there will or will not be HLB at some point during December, January and February.

Charmhills did the first paragraph before I get the blame ! It is quite early to have firm convictions I think, but basing on recent years re the lack of HLB, is far from the worst approach.

I do seem to recsll n that there was a map from Accuweather posted on this forum last Autumn showing largely 'stormy' conditions for Ireland and the UK. It could have been the year before though as I can't be totally sure.

Regarding other comments, I agree that the pattern in October is no way an indicator of what is to come in the winter. Patterns can and do change in an instant (relatively speaking) as much in the Autumn/Winter period as they do at anytime of year.

Actually, traditionally an autumn featuring a strong blocking signature to the west/NW or E of the UK proceeding a strong Nino is a very good analogue for a blocked/cold winter.

I saw this backed up on one Gav's videos.

We can always hope. Maybe we will get lucky this time, but the form horse (as everyone knows) is a zonal winter.

The same guy who said there wouldn't be a frost before December (which has already fallen) and also the same guy who started a thread over on NW called 'stopping dangerous global warming' where he suggested such things as building a giant wall to deflect suns rays and giant mirrors to be erected around the N pole....

Let's just say, it's no surprise to me he's gone mild...

And that is exactly the reason why it's easier to predict a milder winter than pick out a cold one.

It's my first post on here in years (Was part of TWO) back in the days of the wild wild west  Anyway.... I think for me the thing that I really would like to see is a cooling trend through the autumn i.e. a cool October and November that are either average or below average.

Obviously other factors such as a - ve NAO, -ve AO, Easterly QBO etc are important for the general winter pattern, but a cooler period for me will indicate that potentially we might have a better chance at a cooler or even colder winter than average.

Case in point....If we look in the build up to the 09/10 winter, we had a succession of cooler than average months which then led to the cold winter of 09/10.

And if we look at the mild winters between 97 and 08, many of the months in this period were warmer than average which indicated a warm period. 

If we look at the year 1962, it was a very cold year that then ended in the 62/63 winter. 

I know that there is a lot more to it than merely a cooling trend but I feel if October, November and even December are milder than average then the prospects for winter 16/17 could be looking mild.

In any case, it will be fun to see what unfolds over the next 2 months or so!

Grant

Aye but there has to be a cut off point. A point where warm months turn to cooler ones. For all you know, this winter (or even this month for that matter) could be the start of a below average spell.

Backing the favourite is always a soft option. Those who impress are those who back the rank outsider and win - do that more than once and in weather forecasting terms, you become a demi-God.

On weather forums, by far the most facile thing to do, is to predict a cold winter, or say that you see signs of one.  Few will be displeased, tenuous telconnections will be excitably discussed. We know most posters (including those with blizzard/snow etc in their moniker ) crave at least one bout of cold and snow.

Those posters/forecasts that fail to impress me, are those that year after year predict some kind of spell that will deliver cold and snow widely for the populous lowlands, when year after year we get none, or very little at all.

The braver and impressive thing to do, is to avoid currying favour with fellow weather geeks by promising what people want to hear, and to be honest and make a forecast based on logic, rather than the triumph of hope over experience.

If you predict a cold winter 10 years in a row and you get 1/10 right, that should make you a laughing stock of the Express variety, for anyone with any discretion and knowledge.

that forecasting a mild winter in the UK is not really a forecast at all as much as a statement of the blindingly obvious. Mild winters being

pretty much the default setting for the UK. The forecaster who can pick out the cold departures from the norm without forecasting them all the time

(like Madden) are the good ones.

MR BRIAN buzz update looks good look north for cold mid month ? but how far south will it reach

Well from what I've seen of this guy, he has been pretty accurate so far -  successfully picking apart the failed forecast by Chiono/Lorenzo on NW last winter, and possibly the winter before that as well..

Do you mean it is easier to predict a mild winter in the UK now or say, at any point in CET history ? 20 out of the last 29 winters have contained 2 or more above average DJFs.

Some people say that 'mild winters are the default' but on the other hand say that the modern era doesn't exist, it is not possible to have it both ways. Do you see them as always being the default, in which case how did we arrive at the averages as they are, or do you see them as the default now ? 

As the running mean changes, what were once mild winters (mild being historically a tag for warmer than average or at least average) will become average or even below; but will the former 'mild winters' be named as not mild? No. Reason- that across our weather history, the CET has periodically identified bitter winters- at roughly 100 year intervals- and hot summers, also well-spread so that although mean values seem to be in a trend, max/ min and modal values don't; and therefore, what we recognised as a warm or cold month, season or year, will retain that somewhat anecdotal label regardless of changing averages to follow.

Ian? Remember you well...

Seem to remember you lying low for a while when we had those epic winters that you said we'd never experience again. 

and your point is?..

Ian being Ian. I thought he'd been long since banished from these forums...

its a very strange question. How can one predict a winter in the past tense? Like asking "What's your forecast for February 1954?"

Indeed! Mild winter ...!? really? since when did the UK last get a milder than average winter!?

Yes it's obvious.

I do see this current blocking HP receding north though and not sinking which is a good sign. - Only October but still.

Given this was the average pressure pattern for the North Atlantic back in 1913, you can see why predicting an Atlantic dominated winter would be be the form horse.

A chart from February 1903, note the chart on the left depicted as a normal February.

I was waiting for Kev to trot out one of these charts - of course if you take a snapshot at any given time, the +ve NAO set-up is the single most likely situation to be occurring - but of course if that was continuous then monthly winter CET averages would be over 6, which of course they are not.

What we have, without question, seen over the last 29 years is a persistence of such patterns for six weeks or more during the DJF period.