I have been digging a little deeper into what is happening with the QBO following my post a little while back. This link has some very interesting data showing the actual figures at the various levels in the atmosphere.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore.dat

The standard QBO data published by NOAA is at the 30hPa level (and has slightly different figures to those for the 30hPa level shown by the link above). The above link does give a broader picture - which is often represented graphically as per this link:

(download pdf)

What the dataset above shows is that we did have an easterly QBO starting to develop in November of last year at the 10hPa level. But it did not last very long. Also it completely failed to propagate down to the 15-30 hPa level where the figures remained essentially positive. It did though propagate down to the 35hPa level and below but again only for a fairly short period of time.

We now find ourselves, at the end of September, with the easterlies still present from 60hPa and downwards but the negative numbers starting to decrease generally. The figures have been largely neutral at the 10hPa level for a while and are currently strongly positive at the key 30hPa level. Indeed at the 15 and 20hPa level the numbers went more positive in September.

The current QBO dataset is very bizarre and has been said before is somewhat unprecedented. Difficult to know what will happen next. We have had a very short and weak easterly phase, the question is will the current westerly phase also be short and weak? If so we might start turning negative again soon. But we might not.

If we look back at the past phases we see that typically the data turns negative at the 30hPa level about 6 months on average after the figures turn negative at the 10hPA level (although it can be as short as 3-4 months or as long as 9-10 months). Given that the data is still positive at present at the 10hPa level and strongly positive at the 30hPA level, my gut feeling at the moment is that the figures at 30hPa could remain positive throughout this winter. So probably a westerly QBO state for this winter.

We will need to see what happens to the data in October and November. If there is a sudden shift to easterlies at the 10hPa level that might see an easterly at 30hPa towards the end of the winter. If not then probably we will stay westerly all winter. 

Cheers

S

Hello all! Good to be back from summer hibernation. 

Been an following recent charts with interest. For anyone keen to assess the supposSed signal for height rises to our N/NW at the start of the winter, I suggest a quick glance through the final frames on the last GEFS suite. Obviously far too early at this stage, but if that signal grows as we head into November, things might get interesting. Either way, let the roller coaster begin!

GLOSEA5 update and its not what you want to see.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

About par for a MetO winter forecast on recent form

Interesting though that they are showing a pretty strong La Nina developing of up to -2C anomaly. I wonder whther this influenced the global forecast

Almost the entire planet is showing as warmer than -0.5C anomaly and nearly all above average. Makes me wonder what base they are using - it must be 1961-90 I presume

Hi,

Just had a look at the GLOSEA update and I think that it looks quite interesting. The average mean sea level pressure pattern shows higher than normal pressure over greenland and Iceland, and lower than normal pressure in the mid atlantic with slightly higher than normal pressure over central southern europe. 

In terms of temperature, the UK looks bang on average with parts of northern scotland perhaps being just slightly lower than average. And to the west of the UK, there is a large area of below normal temperatures which would indicate a northerly flow. 

In terms of precipitation the UK looks to have pretty much average rainfall but what is telling to me is to the north and northwest of the UK including greenland, there will be lower than average precipitation indicating higher than normal pressure patterns located over iceland/greenland. 

All in all if I were to some this data up, it looks like the UK is going to be in a constant battle ground between cold weather to the north associated with strong northern blocking and also southerly tracking lows that will be attacking the UK from the southwest. 

Whilst the update isn't showing a definitively cold winter, it is an interesting update as I feel (based on the data shown) we could quite easily be into the cold should the higher than normal blocking patterns influence the Uk more than is being forecast. However, it could quite easily go the otherway of course!

All in all an interesting update with plenty of norther blocking around and broadly average temperatures throughout the NDJ period.

G

Still early days and it's the November one which will hopefully clear the way forward. 🙂

Hi Solar,

To me (Just how i'm seeing it) the high pressure anomaly looks in a pretty decent position to potentially give some colder weather our way(Could of course be closer). However this is only one update and November could show more norther blocking or less(who knows) but it is by no means a write off if you are looking for cold weather.

The update says to me, "Close but no cigar" if you are looking for a cold winter. However, the next update might show something better or worse for colder winter fans.

I guess we will have to wait and see.

G 

Hi Solar Cycles,

I guess we'll have to see but at the moment, I think it is pretty finely poised and could swing either way. If I had to make a guess as to what the winter will bring this season, I would say overall average but definitely we will see some colder periods and perhaps a severe wintry period of weather last 7 to 14 days. 

But obviously in an average winter, there will be the standard rain, mild weather and storms from time to time as well. 

I just can't see it being as mild as last winter but at the same time, I don't see us having a cold winter i.e. 2009/2010 or a severe winter month like December 2010. My reasoning for this is we aren't quite yet in the solar minimum, we don't have perfect conditions for a negative NAO, the QBO still might be in a westerly phase for this winter and also the northeast pacific waters (off Alaska) are very warm which will drive cold air down into north america which will strengthen the jet. 

But I do believe there will be some interest this winter in terms of cold and snow purely because there looks like there will be a lot of northern blocking going on especially in the early winter. 

Grant.

Ah, so the winter roller coaster has begun its journey.

Hi Martin,

Yup the rollercoaster has officially begun. I think the one thing that is interesting to me, is the prevalence of northern blocking to our north/northwest. It would only take a slight shift in the median pressure anomaly to push us colder than average this winter imho.

Still a long way to go however and Novembers update will tell us more as ever. So I guess we await the next update and the ECM seasonal update. 

G

But here is the thing, we could have perfect conditions for a negative NAO and AO, an easterly QBO, sunspot minimum, neutral/weak la nina (which we have) and every other indicator that would point to a colder than average winter. But the joke of it is, where we sit, next to a a very large and warm ocean could still mean that we would get an average or even a mild winter even if every indicator is pointing to a cold winter just because of where we sit. 

My point being is that we need everything to be in place...perfectly plus have a massive piece of brucie luck to get a cold or severe winter in the UK. Hence why they are so incredibly rare.

I have come to accept this through 30 years of painful model watching and wishing for cold winters and gradually as the years pass, the realisation has come that if you are wishing for a cold winter every winter, you will be disappointed 95% of the time such is their rarity and the perfect conditions needed for them to occur.

I have to confess that after the 2009/2010 winter and the awesome winter of 2010, we have statistically speaking had our cold winter and severe winter month for another decade or so from then (I am not stating that we can't see them this year or next etc. Just saying that it is unlikely). 

I hope that I am wrong and we do end up getting a cold winter this year but realistically, it is unlikely to happen purely down to where we are and everything that is required to be in place for them to happen not to mention the luck needed.

But it can go the other way as well, and mother nature could throw a true belter at us that breaks all records. Such is the randomness and complexity or the weather and atmosphere!

G

Can you foresee such a switch happening in the near future SC? It wasn't that unusual to see big dumps of quality snow here even from basic westerlies when the AMO was in its cold phase. These days we consider it lucky to get a few sleety showers from Arctic sourced northerlies.

Hi Solar Cycles,

You should have seen me back in the wild west days...Fanatical was the word haha I am ever optimistic of a cold winter or a severe wintry spell but experience has told me to not expect it like I probably did in the years gone by...lol

One thing Steve Murr said the other day that really struck me which is very sobering if you wish for cold....Should we ever experience another 62/63 type winter again, due to the overall warming of the arctic, the depth of cold we would experience would not be as intense as it would have in times gone by just because of our warming climate. 

Whether this would actually play out or not I am not sure BUT if we experience another 62/63 type winter again, if this is to be believed then the cold will not be as intense or severe. 

And my wish of the UK hitting or breaking -30C in my lifetime is never likely to happen should the arctic/climate continue to warm.

In actual fact, had the cold of December 2010 had held on and intensified over xmas or new year, then I do believe somewhere in Scotland might of hit -30C as the Met were potentially predicting it just before xmas. But alas, it wasn't meant to be. 

G

Just another 4 years (at least) of absolute winter vapidity to go so.

We came very close to reaching -30C during the late December 1995 freeze up here. Altnaharra in the Highlands reached -27.2C on 30th December 1995 equalling the record set at Braemar in January 1982. I don't off the top of my head know what our lowest recorded temperature was during the 2009/10 winter or during December 2010.

Hi David,

Yes I remember those spells well. I remember a popular poster on here(think it was Andy Woodcock) saying that in January '82, -30C was unofficially picked up on the shropshire/welsh borders by weather satellites however, these readings wont have been official.   Not sure how true this was though....

However I would of thought our greatest chance of seeing -30C in the past 36 years would of been 81/82 due to the sheer depth of cold, and I am guessing Jan 1987 had we have had perfect conditions during the coldest part of the cold spell due to the record breaking depth of cold. 

I do actually believe that -30 C will be breached one day as will 40C but whether it will happen in my lifetime, it remains to be seen. 

G

Hi Bowser, 

As you say, I am sure somewhere unofficial in the UK has achieved a temperature at or below -30C over the past 300 to 400 years, especially during the little ice age.

G