The Weather Outlook

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Bertwhistle
01 October 2016 16:00:43

 

As Ben says, have a look here http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=16881 

I suspect the comments may actually have originated from another forecaster not associated with TWO who has "form" with this type of hyperbole. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yep- thanks; actually, I never lost faith! I knew if I asked, someone would let me know where that...um...fertilizer heralded from.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Iceman
01 October 2016 17:27:01
The Accuweather forecast for North America looks potentially encouraging for the UK as it indicates a buckled northern jet - a positive PNA - giving cold plunges in central and eastern North America. In addition to this, and this is the rarer part of the jigsaw, we need other factors favouring a buckled jet across the Atlantic and retrogressive patterns across northern Europe. But you can't get a buckled jet across the Atlantic if the jet is roaring west to east across North America.

There has been quite a shift to more positive PNA winters since 1950 which is interesting.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.pna.gif 

I note that the QBO has not yet turned negative which is not encouraging for the coming winter if you want prolonged cold and retrogressive patterns across Europe. But too early to call the winter at the moment.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index 

East Kilbride 480 ft
Bertwhistle
01 October 2016 17:35:49

The Accuweather forecast for North America looks potentially encouraging for the UK as it indicates a buckled northern jet - a positive PNA - giving cold plunges in central and eastern North America. In addition to this, and this is the rarer part of the jigsaw, we need other factors favouring a buckled jet across the Atlantic and retrogressive patterns across northern Europe. But you can't get a buckled jet across the Atlantic if the jet is roaring west to east across North America.

There has been quite a shift to more positive PNA winters since 1950 which is interesting.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.pna.gif

I note that the QBO has not yet turned negative which is not encouraging for the coming winter if you want prolonged cold and retrogressive patterns across Europe. But too early to call the winter at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Iceman 

">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

Ah-yes- but what about the OPI? This has been quickly written off for...what reason?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Chunky Pea
01 October 2016 17:52:15

Ah-yes- but what about the OPI? This has been quickly written off for...what reason?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

It was bollix

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

David M Porter
01 October 2016 17:53:23

 

It was bollix

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

LOL!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Arcus
01 October 2016 18:18:22

 

It was bollix

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Speaking of which, can we have the WOI back this year? 

 

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Saint Snow
01 October 2016 18:26:09

 

Speaking of which, can we have the WOI back this year?  

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

 

Yay! That was as fun as it was daft.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Wobbly_Monk
01 October 2016 19:20:12
My forecast: I won't be in the UK this winter which means a guaranteed deep freeze for some going on previous form. Back in 2009/2010 I was in Belgium and, whilst it was cold there at times, I missed out on the snow events which some of the UK enjoyed. Been back in the UK since then and it's been a succession of horrible winters if it's a prolonged cold spell with snow you're after like me. Won't be around this winter so I predict it's going to happen again in my absence!
Solar Cycles
02 October 2016 11:14:14

Pinched from t'other channel, Ian F latest musings on what GLOSEA5 is showing

"NB Signal for any early warming / reversal has waned recently. Next EC Seasonal output later this week may be instructive versus Glosea; ie if signs of -ve NAO into winter also turn less bullish versus last update".

Brian Gaze
02 October 2016 11:56:34

Pinched from t'other channel, Ian F latest musings on what GLOSEA5 is showing

"NB Signal for any early warming / reversal has waned recently. Next EC Seasonal output later this week may be instructive versus Glosea; ie if signs of -ve NAO into winter also turn less bullish versus last update".

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Not entirely show I understand that. Is he saying the latest signals are more supportive of positive temperature anomalies as we head through late autumn and early winter?

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Solar Cycles
02 October 2016 11:58:12

 

Not entirely show I understand that. Is he saying the latest signals are more supportive of positive temperature anomalies as we head through late autumn and early winter?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Thats how I saw it Brian, still all rather speculative at this stage really.

Brian Gaze
02 October 2016 14:14:48
What I find interesting is how the May North Atlantic SST profile seems to have died a natural death. IMR it is one of the few verifiable lead indicators of the following winter's pressure patterns.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Solar Cycles
02 October 2016 15:05:55

What I find interesting is how the May North Atlantic SST profile seems to have died a natural death. IMR it is one of the few verifiable lead indicators of the following winter's pressure patterns.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed, was its success rate at verifying for the following winter something along the lines of 2/3. I suppose that means it's wrong every 1/3 but it's still better odds than any of the newer fads which have been touted during the past few years.

Fergieweather
02 October 2016 20:13:06

 

Not entirely show I understand that. Is he saying the latest signals are more supportive of positive temperature anomalies as we head through late autumn and early winter?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

No - meaning stratospheric signal into early season, not surface temperature anomalies. 

Given consistent EC Seasonal output lately, it's next update in a few days will make for useful comparison to latest GloSea5/CFSv2. It's still early days. Hope that clarifies.

Solar Cycles
02 October 2016 20:42:11

 

 

No - meaning stratospheric signal into early season, not surface temperature anomalies. 

Given consistent EC Seasonal output lately, it's next update in a few days will make for useful comparison to latest GloSea5/CFSv2. It's still early days. Hope that clarifies.

Originally Posted by: Fergieweather 

Thanks for clarifying that Ian, all eyes on the next EC update on the 8th then. 🙂

Brian Gaze
03 October 2016 07:47:57

No - meaning stratospheric signal into early season, not surface temperature anomalies. 

Given consistent EC Seasonal output lately, it's next update in a few days will make for useful comparison to latest GloSea5/CFSv2. It's still early days. Hope that clarifies.

Originally Posted by: Fergieweather 

 Thanks.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

tallyho_83
03 October 2016 22:30:23

The set up we have for the rest of the week is a huge HP over Scandinavia!? - well, what a perfect easterly for winter eh!? - OK perhaps little snow but maybe snow grains or flurries instead. What do you think? - Just hope we get more of this in December, Jan and Feb. I can already tell the North Atlantic is quietening down.

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

JOHN NI
04 October 2016 09:55:57

The set up we have for the rest of the week is a huge HP over Scandinavia!? - well, what a perfect easterly for winter eh!? - OK perhaps little snow but maybe snow grains or flurries instead. What do you think? - Just hope we get more of this in December, Jan and Feb. I can already tell the North Atlantic is quietening down.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

My experience of easterlies and a significant block in the early to mid-Autumn period is that they rarely last in an unmodified form into the next season. Statistically, a return to Atlantic mobility or a different type of block is more likely.

John.

The orange County of Armagh.

Brian Gaze
04 October 2016 10:06:49

I'm wary of this type of blocking in October. We could easily see heights slipping southwards during the next few months as things fire up to the northwest. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Tractor Boy
04 October 2016 10:14:19

 

My experience of easterlies and a significant block in the early to mid-Autumn period is that they rarely last in an unmodified form into the next season. Statistically, a return to Atlantic mobility or a different type of block is more likely.

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1988/Rrea00119881019.gif

 

 

(Just sayin...)

Dave

Farndale, North York Moors

Solar Cycles
04 October 2016 11:07:47

I'm wary of this type of blocking in October. We could easily see heights slipping southwards during the next few months as things fire up to the northwest. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Thats generally the case when such a set up occurs at this time of the year, all eyes on the next EC seasonal update and see if it's still showing robust heights to our N/NW through the early part of winter.

Bolty
04 October 2016 11:28:07

I'm wary of this type of blocking in October. We could easily see heights slipping southwards during the next few months as things fire up to the northwest. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

That's more or less exactly what happened last October. We saw a Scandy high and easterly winds for a good part of October...

... before the high slipped south into Eastern Europe at the end of the month, which set us up for November and December 2015

 

Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Saint Snow
04 October 2016 11:31:54

The set up we have for the rest of the week is a huge HP over Scandinavia!? - well, what a perfect easterly for winter eh!? - OK perhaps little snow but maybe snow grains or flurries instead. What do you think? - Just hope we get more of this in December, Jan and Feb. I can already tell the North Atlantic is quietening down.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

 

Not generally very good for MBY, but those to the E & SE usually do well for snow. Saying that, a few times in 2013 we got a good snowfall here from small fronts moving E-W from a set-up that had blocking to our NE - I'd take a repeat of the recurring set-ups of Jan & Mar 13, but ideally a month in advance this time (ie, Dec & Feb)

From a personal perspective, the ideal scenario with a SH is for it to be located a little further north in Scandinavia, and fronts to move in from the SW/WSW, disrupting over the UK as the SH blocking holds. 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Gavin P
04 October 2016 12:13:42

What I find interesting is how the May North Atlantic SST profile seems to have died a natural death. IMR it is one of the few verifiable lead indicators of the following winter's pressure patterns.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I still use May Atlantic SST's as part of my winter forecast! 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Maunder Minimum
04 October 2016 17:04:15

 

I still use May Atlantic SST's as part of my winter forecast! 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

And what do they tell you?

New world order coming.

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