The Weather Outlook

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nouska
04 October 2016 17:17:57

 

I still use May Atlantic SST's as part of my winter forecast! 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

The UKMO still use it too. smile

Screen capture from their last winter's forecast pdf that I linked a few pages back.

 

 

Solar Cycles
04 October 2016 17:33:52

 

 

Not generally very good for MBY, but those to the E & SE usually do well for snow. Saying that, a few times in 2013 we got a good snowfall here from small fronts moving E-W from a set-up that had blocking to our NE - I'd take a repeat of the recurring set-ups of Jan & Mar 13, but ideally a month in advance this time (ie, Dec & Feb)

From a personal perspective, the ideal scenario with a SH is for it to be located a little further north in Scandinavia, and fronts to move in from the SW/WSW, disrupting over the UK as the SH blocking holds. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

9/10 they deliver diddly squat IMBY but for many others they do. Swings and roundabouts but I would rather have a zonal NW than any easterly.

polarwind
05 October 2016 15:50:16

 

My experience of easterlies and a significant block in the early to mid-Autumn period is that they rarely last in an unmodified form into the next season. Statistically, a return to Atlantic mobility or a different type of block is more likely.

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 

Interesting area of discussion.

I remember in the late sixties and early seventies, looking forward to October northern blocking as this seemed a good indicator for an early cold winter…… then it all changed about 1974 and the correlation no longer applied. I hope I remember this correctly.

 

 


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Dave,Derby

polarwind
05 October 2016 15:54:22

9/10 they deliver diddly squat IMBY but for many others they do. Swings and roundabouts but I would rather have a zonal NW than any easterly.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

The zonal NW'ly has certainly changed from 60 years ago….. we used to regularly get snow showers in winter when this happened. But I remember Feb. 1956 well - a very cold easterly with lots of snow.


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

polarwind
05 October 2016 15:55:54

 

The UKMO still use it too. smile

Screen capture from their last winter's forecast pdf that I linked a few pages back.

 

 

Originally Posted by: nouska 

And I thought that they had given up on it


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Arcus
05 October 2016 17:02:29

">http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

And they may be right, but I don't see much reasoning in there apart from "an active storm track".


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Chunky Pea
05 October 2016 17:20:44

">http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

And they may be right, but I don't see much reasoning in there apart from "an active storm track".

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

 

If I recall correctly, they did get last winter fairly spot on in general, not that that should be used as a precedent or anything. Personally, I like that idea of a stormy winter ahead though.


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Arcus
05 October 2016 17:26:19

 

 

If I recall correctly, they did get last winter fairly spot on in general, not that that should be used as a precedent or anything. Personally, I like that idea of a stormy winter ahead though.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

I'm pretty sure good ol' Joe ******i has moved on from Accuweather, but many of us will remember his long range winter prognostications in previous years for Accuweather!


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Bertwhistle
05 October 2016 17:33:49

 

I'm pretty sure good ol' Joe ******i has moved on from Accuweather, but many of us will remember his long range winter prognostications in previous years for Accuweather!

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

I used to like Joe's European blog spot, and in Nov-Dec 2010 he got things very right, in the face of some adversity, until the end of Dec/ Jan, when he kept predicting another surge of prolonged cold, IIRC, and everybody else said it was over. He stuck to his guns, but it went poiree.

He left soon after.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Whether Idle
05 October 2016 17:37:01

">http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

Feels right to me.  The synoptics we have now are clearly useless and one season too early, and will not be repeated later on.  The Accuweather 'cast indicates a steep pressure gradient with a high over Iberia and lows barrelling across us.  Awful.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Charmhills
05 October 2016 18:48:03

">http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2016-2017-stormy-uk-mild-wet-france-germany/60378723

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Feels right to me.  The synoptics we have now are clearly useless and one season too early, and will not be repeated later on.  The Accuweather 'cast indicates a steep pressure gradient with a high over Iberia and lows barrelling across us.  Awful.

The weather makes fools of us all.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

KevBrads1
05 October 2016 19:44:13

 

 

If I recall correctly, they did get last winter fairly spot on in general, not that that should be used as a precedent or anything. Personally, I like that idea of a stormy winter ahead though.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Nope, their forecast was duff. 

"High pressure to the north of the United Kingdom for much of the winter season will result in a very typical winter for parts of northwest Europe with stretches of tranquil weather and overall near-normal temperatures."


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sizzle
05 October 2016 20:15:06

 

Nope, their forecast was duff. 

"High pressure to the north of the United Kingdom for much of the winter season will result in a very typical winter for parts of northwest Europe with stretches of tranquil weather and overall near-normal temperatures."

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

so that's a dry cold/mild crisp winter weather then, cos this high pressure doesn't seem to want to go away,

tallyho_83
06 October 2016 00:44:42

I'm wary of this type of blocking in October. We could easily see heights slipping southwards during the next few months as things fire up to the northwest. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yet Gavin said that more Atlantic hurricanes (which we are seeing) increase the chances of blocking!? I am confused!?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


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Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
06 October 2016 00:47:33

 

Feels right to me.  The synoptics we have now are clearly useless and one season too early, and will not be repeated later on.  The Accuweather 'cast indicates a steep pressure gradient with a high over Iberia and lows barrelling across us.  Awful.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

The weather makes fools of use all.

Wait am I missing something? I cant get the link to work but I thought this winter would be drier and colder especially in December? what's with the flip?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Maunder Minimum
06 October 2016 05:44:57

 

Yet Gavin said that more Atlantic hurricanes (which we are seeing) increase the chances of blocking!? I am confused!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Brian is backing the form horse. A blocked autumn does not signify a blocked winter and an active hurricane season does not either. All we can do is hope for something.


New world order coming.
Gavin D
06 October 2016 07:28:05
iapennell has issued his Preliminary Prediction for winter over on Netweather

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86410-winter-20162017-preliminary-prediction/ 

White Meadows
06 October 2016 07:29:26
Signs of retrogression into late October across the big 3 this morning. The NAO is progged to drop steeply. The pole is very quiet.

I wonder if the absence of solar activity plays a part in all of this?

Brian Gaze
06 October 2016 07:38:35

iapennell has issued his Preliminary Prediction for winter over on Netweather

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86410-winter-20162017-preliminary-prediction/

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Never heard of the guy but the bottom line is he's going for a mild or very mild winter at this stage?


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Solar Cycles
06 October 2016 07:38:58

iapennell has issued his Preliminary Prediction for winter over on Netweather

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Hismwinter">https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86410-winter-20162017-preliminary-prediction/

. His winter forecasts for the past two years have been very good and the detailed analysis makes fascinating reading but at this stage of the year it's just far too early to make a call with many pieces of the jigsaw still not in place.

sizzle
06 October 2016 07:43:24

[quote=Brian Gaze;827133]

 

Never heard of the guy but the bottom line is he's going for a mild or very mild winter at this stage?

[/quote ........ he has done well to forecast into febuary 2017,  

Gavin D
06 October 2016 07:54:26

 

Never heard of the guy but the bottom line is he's going for a mild or very mild winter at this stage?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Pretty much his past 2 winter forecasts were very close

For summer just gone his CET predictions on May 2nd were;

13.5C in June

17.0C in July

17.0C in August

Actual CET's

15.3C in June

16.9C in July

17.0C in August

Whilst he was well out in June the other 2 were fine

 

some faraway beach
06 October 2016 09:06:29

iapennell has issued his Preliminary Prediction for winter over on Netweather

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86410-winter-20162017-preliminary-prediction/

First paragraph: "During October the global winds, pressure and temperature-patterns across the Northern Hemisphere gravitate towards their winter states, which they will tend to retain until late March."

That's one hell of a broad assumption imo. I thought the whole point of attempts at winter forecasts was to estimate (or, to be honest, guess) whether and when the current state of the atmosphere might change before late March.

Not so sure that the stats quoted for his summer forecast are much of a recommendation either. When you get the month of the forecast closest to your start time wrong, then any success in the following months is surely down to luck.

I apologize for knocking the guy like this, because there's an awful lot of good material collected together there in his posts. I'm just not sure whether he's doing anything particularly useful with it. 

But as always, I'd be more than glad to be shown why I'm wrong.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Shropshire
06 October 2016 10:34:34

Ian Pennell certainly knows his stuff, and if I remember rightly he quickly (and correctly) picked holes in Chiono and Lorenzo's official NW Winter forecast.

My criticism would be is that some of his detail can't possibly be known at this stage, obviously the inference is that blocking will occur later on, but as is so often the case in modern times, it won't be able to establish far North enough.

 


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