Yesterday was warmer than the GFS output of several days ago suggested, and today pulled off the same feat across the eastern half of the UK... can't say I mind 

The weekend is obviously going to have a significant impact on the CET, given that tomorrow's maximum may struggle to get much above 5*C in most places, while Sunday may only manage 7 or 8*C tops.

For a time, next week was looking to continue the below average CET returns, which had be wondering just how far wide of the mark the model-led CET projection could end up, but the past day or so has seen the output lean towards some warmer days in the mix - nothing exceptional but enough to at least counter the colder days as and when they come along.

Not yet looking like enough to lift the CET to nearly 8*C by month's end, but I could live with something at or just above 7*C 

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One thing that's been notable here so far is the amount of sunshine, continuing the theme from the winter just gone. I do t think there's a daily running E&W sunshine time series anywhere on the Internet unfortunately (though Philip Eden must get his from somewhere) but I wouldn't mind betting we're averaging 7 or 8 hours per day at least down here in the South East.

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...cue today's ECM 00z operational! 

The most extreme option by far, but of some concern as it would allow for at least one day with a very low CET return... possibly not far above zero!

Trust high latitude blocking to start appearing in troublesome places at a time when most of us are keen for some spring warmth 

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Met Office Hadley     6.6c.   Anomaly   1.5c.   Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                6.23c.  Anomaly   0.07c.

N-W                       6.93c.  Anomaly   0.64c.

My Mean                 6.5c.   Anomaly   -1.2c.     

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The last three months have all returned a CET within 0.2C of the 1971-2000 mean. This month looks like it could continue that trend.

A cooler interlude coming up in the next 10 days with temperatures either close to average or somewhat below average.

Oh, I could live with it ending at 7c too! 

Of course the output will change and change again before the end of the month.  I don't want it to peak too soon as we're more likely to have warmer weather at the end of the month.  Oh, hang on!  This is the British weather we're talking about, so maybe we won't! 

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I was thinking GW's projection looked more than 1*C too low for much of next week after seeing the GFS 12z op run... but then came the ECM 12z op run 

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Met Office Hadley        6.4c.    Anomaly     1.3c.   Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                    6.12c.  Anomaly    -0.04c.

N-W                           6.79c.  Anomaly     0.5c        

Mount Sorrel              6.6c.

My  Mean                  6.3c.   Anomaly    -1.3c.     

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Nearly halfway through and it's 5C here (-0.3C)

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Met Office Hadley     6.3c.     Anomaly      1.2c.     provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                 6.5c.     Anomaly     -0.11c,

N-W                        6.73c.   Anomaly      0.44c.

Mount Sorrel            6.5c.

My Mean                  6.2c.    Anomaly       1.4c.             

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Met Office Hadley     6.3c.      Anomaly     1.1c.   Provisional   to 16th.

Metcheck                 6.00c.    Anomaly    -0.16c.  

N-W                        6.66c.    Anomaly     0.37c.

Mount Sorrel            6.4c.

My Mean                   6.1.      Anomaly     -1.5c.       

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Met Office Hadley    6.3c.      Anomaly      1.1c.    provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                5.90c     Anomaly     -0.26c.

N-W                       6.62c.    Anomaly      0.33c.

Mount  Sorrel          6.2c.      Anomaly      0.1c.

My     Mean            6.2c.      Anomaly      -1.4c.

 

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Steady as she goes and that's fine for me as long as we get a few warmer days at the end of the month but not too late that it won't make much difference to the average.

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Met Office Hadley         6.2c.       Anomaly       1.0c.  Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                     5.88c.     Anomaly      -0.28c.

N-W                            6.58c.     Anomaly       0.29c.

Mount Sorrel                6.2c.

My Mean                      6.1c.     Anomaly   -1.5c.               

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Met Office Hadley    6.2c.      Anomaly      0.9c.    Provisional  to  19th. 

Metcheck                5.85c.   Anomaly      -0.31c.    

N-W                       6.53c.   Anomaly       0.24c

Mount Sorrel           6.2c    

My Mean                 6.1c.     Anomaly      -1.5c.

 

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Met office Hadley     6.2c.    Anomaly      0.9c.    Provisional to  20th.

Metcheck                5.92c   Anomaly     -0.24c.    

N-W                       6.57c   Anomaly      0.28c

My Mean                6.1c.    Anomaly     -1.5c.  

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Still 5C (-0.3C) here.
First daffodils are just starting to open in warmer spots.

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Met office Hadley     6.3c.    Anomaly     0.9c.   Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                5.89c.   Anomaly    -0.27c.

 N-W                      6.57c.   Anomaly     0.28c. 

Mount Sorrel           6.3c.    Anomaly     -2.0c.

My Mean                 6.2c.    Anomaly     -1.4c.   (compared to March 2014  of 7.6c. First full year of records.)  

 

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Met Office Hadley     6.2c.     Anomaly      0.9c.   Provisional to  22nd.

Metcheck                 5.82c    Anomaly     -0.34c.

N-W                        6.53c.   Anomaly      0.24c.

Mount Sorrel            6.4c.     Anomaly     -2.0c.

My Mean                  6.1c.    Anomaly      -1.5c.

  

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Met Office Hadley  6.2c.   Anomaly    0.8c.

Metcheck              5.84c.  Anomaly   -0.32c.

N-W                     6.52c.  Anomaly    0.23c.

Mount Sorrel         6.3c.

My Mean               6.1c.   Anomaly    -1.5c.

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I could do with it warming up a bit now if it's going to reach my 7c guess. 

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It won't go up today!

I'm still clinging to the hope that it'll stay close to 6c in order to mitigate the damage for me.

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Met Office Hadley     6.2c.     Anomaly    0.7c.   Provisional to   24th.

Metcheck                5.77c.    Anomaly    -0.39c.

N-W                        6.45c.    Anomaly     0.16c 

Mount Sorrel            6.2c.

My Mean                  6.1c.     Anomaly     -1.5c.

 

 

Later post due to walking in the sunshine...

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It doesn't look like it will go up soon enough for me and I have some points to catch up on, due to my late entry penalties last month.  At this late stage of the month, there needs to be a fair rise or fall in daily temps for it to change enough for either of us.   

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A monumental cock up on my part. Thats my challenge over for the year.

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