The boundary between the cooler air and milder air for much of next week has shifted southeast quite a bit on the GFS runs over the past two days... enough to change the likely CET trend from upward to downward.
That's before the risk of it turning chillier still from the east by next weekend. Until recently, GFS and CFS were being persistent in placing the high pressure far enough SE to bring more of a mild westerly regime to our shores, with estimates of the CET using raw model data were coming in at somewhere over 7*C for 1st-15th March.
This now looks like being between a half and a whole degree too high. This error is mitigated to some extent by the fact that GFS projected temperatures that proved to be a degree or so too low for the first few days of the month.
I must admit, it was more fun playing this game using gut instinct than this scientific approach... but I remain interested in seeing just how well (or poorly) model-based CET projections will fare this year.
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On