After record breaking warmth in 2014 it looks like winter 2014/15 will have seen the CET in all three months coming in within 0.2C of the 1971-2000 mean. So have we moved back to a phase of more average temperatures? Time will tell.
Please post your March CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Saturday evening (28th). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 March.
March historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
There have been very few cold March's in recent years. 2013 was of course a major exception with a CET of just 2.7C. Other cold years were 1995,1996, 2001 and 2006. However, 11 of the past 18 years have seen a March CET of 7C or more, including last year.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 6.3C
1981-2010: 6.6C
1995-2014: 6.6C
Here is a chart of the March CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average
Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.
GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
850s are below average to start the month but return to average towards the end of the first week - albeit with huge scatter. T2m temperatures look average at best. Certainly nothing warm in the runs as at 25 Feb.
ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
De Bilt ECM data looks somewhat below average although there are plenty of milder runs as well
Weatheronline
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead
No recent forecast issued
Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/5/h/A3_plots-temp-MAM.PDF
Latest contingency planners forecast for March suggests a slight bias towards above average temperatures. Interestingly Spring as a whole looks very close to average.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
Seems to contradict the contingency planners forecast somewhat. An average first 10 days but then potentially a trend towards more below average conditions at times.
Pattern matching (just for fun)
So January and February have been seen temperatures close to average and not far off 4C in both months. If we look back into the archives to find similar years since 1900 with a January and February CET both within 0.5C of 4C there are 12 obvious matches. The most recent of these being 2003 and 2006.
Of those 12 matches 6 had a cold or very cold March CET - these years being 1915, 1934, 1951, 1962, 1971 and 2006
Two years saw a very warm March - 1927 and 2003 with the other year being close to average - 1973.
So the pattern matching suggests a two in three chance of a potentially very cold March.
The model output is all over the place at the moment. Last night I calculated a fairly average start to March with the CET around 6C by the 10th. Tonight the output is much colder with a predicted CET of 4.9C by the 11th. The first day of the month will be very warm but after that it looks anything but warm. Don't be surprised if this changes though over the next few days.
Personally I have been saying since Autumn that I thought there was a good chance of a cold March this year. I still think that is the most likely outcome although I hope I am wrong because I am ready for some warm Spring weather.
Edited by moderator
10 April 2015 09:47:44
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