Looks like we're in for relatively chilly nights through next week (single figure minimums) which will have an effect.

CET above 16c now anyway;

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

16.1 to 4th

A very cold winter?

Thanks for the work you put in on this, GW - extremely appreciated.

Needs to come down a lot.....

Hadley       16.1c.   Anomaly    1.3c.

Metcheck   15.71c.  Anomaly    1.99c.

N- W          16.4c.   Anomaly     2.71c.

Mount Sorrel   15.90c. Anomaly  2.20c.

My Mean         16.6c.  Anomaly   2.1c.

Met Office Hadley      16.2c.   Anomaly       1.5c.      provisional  to 5th.

Metcheck                  15.92c.  Anomaly      2.20c.

N-W                         16.5c.   Anomaly       2.81c.

Mount Sorrel             15.93c.  Anomaly      2.23c.

My  Mean                   16.9c.   Anomaly     2.4c.

CET currently at 16.21C by my calculations.

Temperatures likely to be below average in the next few days due to cooler nights. After that temperatures gradually rise again to about 2C above average by next weekend. During the following week temperatures gradually fall back reaching average by the next weekend.

Overall I currently expect the CET to be at 14.90C by the 20th which is 0.75C above the 1971-2000 mean.

Met Office Hadley      16.2c.    Anomaly      1.5c.   Provisional to  6th.

Metcheck                 15.71c.   Anomaly       1.99c.

N-W                         16.46c.  Anomaly       2.77c.

Mount Sorrel             15.79c.  Anomaly        2.09c.

My  Mean                  17.0c.   Anomaly         3.5c.

With light winds and fairly clear skies, those low minimums could drag the CET down to around 15*C by next weekend, as GW's post implies. If the maximums could be a few degrees higher, I wouldn't mind too much... 

The 12z op run then has a particularly warm solution thereafter, yet the CET barely rises, with my rough estimate (probably more so than GW's) being 15.3*C by 20th August. Still, it would be quite something to see a rise in the CET at that stage in the month from a position already a little way above average.

It looks well we're on for a warm month - but a lot can happen in 3 weeks.

September  2006 was amazing - but we can't hit that one I doubt.

Met Office   Hadley       15.9c.      Anomaly    1.2c.  provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                     15.4c.       Anomaly   1.68c.

N-W                            16.21c.     Anomaly   2.52c.

Mount Sorrel                15.37c.     Anomaly   1.67c.

My  Mean                     16.8c.       Anomaly    2.3c.

Cool nights are dropping the mean steadily here, 12.9C so far.
September average is 12.5C

Met Office Hadley      15.5c.     Anomaly       0.9c.     provisional   to 9th.

Metcheck                  15.23c.   Anomaly       1.51c.

N - W                       15.94c.   Anomaly        2.25c.

Mount Sorrel             15.22c   Anomaly        1.52c.

My Mean                   16.6c.   Anomaly         2.1c.

Amazingly, after wondering how on earth 2006 achieved a mean CET of 16.4*C for the whole month, computing the GFS 00z values in directly gives a CET estimate of 16.4*C to 23rd, so I guess that run gives some idea as to what it takes!

Still a week left after that though, and if conditions were bang on average following 100% verification of that run (hah!) the final CET would be 15.86*C, still falling short of 2006's staggering value.

I remain in awe of that month. Same goes for July 2006. That year was pretty sweet 

I think heatwaves early on in the months with temperatures >30C are a big help, something which hasn't been seen this year. The warmth has just been consistent - something which sums up most of 2014.

The warmth in the 2nd half of 2006 was definitely remarkable and October also saw some very high temperatures, not sure if this year will go the same way though.

The most remarkable months of all IMO are February 1779, May 1833 and June 1846, those records will take some beating.

Met Office Hadley        15.3c.       Anomaly     0.8c.    Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                    15.15c.     Anomaly     1.43c.

N-W                           15.8c        Anomaly      1.11c.

Mount Sorrel               15.16c.     Anomaly      1.46c.

My Mean                     16.6c.      Anomaly       2.1c.

Met Office Hadley     15.3c.      Anomaly      0.8c.      Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                 15.08c.    Anomaly      1.36c.  

N-W                        15.73c.    Anomaly       2.04c.

Mount Sorrel            15.14c.    Anomaly       1.44c.

My  Mean                 16.6c.     Anomaly        2.1c.

We have now had 5 below average days in a row. This is despite the warm sunshine many have seen. Cold nights have been the reason for the low daily means. CET currently stands at 15.09C by my calculations.

Should now see a run of above average days for the foreseeable future. Gradually warming up and turning very warm for a time in the second half of next week. After that temperatures may well return close to average.

Even so still looking at a 15.12C mean by the 25th. Depending on how the last week pans out we could still finish the month with a CET greater than 15C.

I will be away on holiday for a week from tomorrow so this will be the last update from me for a while.

Expecting only a slight fall today... We shall see around lunchtime.

Met Office Hadley         15.2c.       Anomaly    0.7c.   Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                     15.00c.     Anomaly    1.28c.

N-W                            15.62c.     Anomaly    1.93c.

Mount Sorrel                15.05c.     Anomaly    1.35c.

My  Mean                     16.4c.      Anomaly     1.9c.

Got 15.8*C to 25th September from the 00z GFS op run - most impressive! 

The run then sees an exceptionally warm situation develop in the final frames so a finish close to 16.0*C would be within reach 

...but this is the GFS we're talking about 

Met Office Hadley        15.7c.     Anomaly     0.7c.  Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                    15.02c.   Anomaly     1.30c.

N-W                           15.61c.   Anomaly     1.92c.

Mount Sorrel               15.10c.   Anomaly     1.40c.

My  Mean                    16.3c.     Anomaly     1.8c.

Met Office Hadley    No  output... for the 13th.

Metcheck        15.02c.    Anomaly    1.30c.

N-W                15.58c.   Anomaly     1.89c.

Mount Sorrel     15.10c.  Anomaly     1.40c.  

My Mean          16.3c.     Anomaly     1.8c. 

That'd be funny - and you not the insane one this month after all!

Met Ofice Hadley       15.1c.     Anomaly     0.9c.    Provisional to 14th ...

Metcheck                  15.00c    Anomaly     1.28c.

NW                           15.58c.   Anomaly     1.89c.

Mount Sorrel              15.13c.   Anomaly     1.43c.

My Mean                    16.2c.    Anomaly      1.8c.