The Weather Outlook

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ARTzeman
16 September 2014 11:11:27

Met Office Hadley    15.1c.   Anomaly 0.9c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                15.05c. Anomaly 1.33c.

N-W                       15.06c.  Anomaly 1.91c.

Mount  Sorrel          15.19c.  Anomaly  1.49c.

My Mean                 16.1c.    Anomaly  2.4c.

     




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
16 September 2014 22:56:39

12.6C here at halfway through, which is more or less on the average.

All those 15C+ means further south are like our July!
The nights have been chilly here until the last couple of days.


ARTzeman
17 September 2014 11:07:32

Met Office Hadley    15.2c.    Anomaly   1.2c.   Provisional to 16th .

Metcheck                15.16c.  Anomaly   1.43c.

N-W                       15.67c.  Anomaly   1.98c.

Mount Sorrel           15.29c.  Anomaly   1.59c

My Mean                 16.2c.    Anomaly   2.3c.

 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Saint Snow
17 September 2014 12:13:31

12.6C here at halfway through, which is more or less on the average.

All those 15C+ means further south are like our July!
The nights have been chilly here until the last couple of days.

Originally Posted by: four 

 

I'm not that much further south than you, and I reckon we're towards the 15c mark


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Stormchaser
17 September 2014 21:29:58

I've got 16.32*C up to 16th September and to be honest I'm dissapointed that the CET is so much lower - despite being some 30 miles inland, the Channel must have had quite an influence in keeping night time temperatures up at my location during the first half of last week.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

ARTzeman
18 September 2014 11:24:20

Met Office Hadley    15.4c.    Anomaly     1.2c.     Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                15.25c.  Anomaly     1.52c.

N-W                       15.74c.  Anomaly    2.05c.

Mount Sorrel           15.39c.  Anomaly   1.69c.

My  Mean                16.3c.    Anomaly   1.8c.

 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

springsunshine
18 September 2014 18:00:06

Like Stormchaser iam suprised that the cet isn`t a lot higher.

In my locallity this week has seen max`s to 25c and minimums no lower that 15c,the last couple of days the mean

temperature has been over 19c,thats what we had during July,remarkable even for the south coast for mid September.The mean for this September is currently 16.4c and 0mm of rain.

Loving it that summer refuses to leave

ARTzeman
19 September 2014 11:11:42

Met Office Hadley    15.5c.    Anomaly       1.4c.    Provisional to 18th

Metcheck                15.37c   Anomaly       1.65c.

N-W                       15.89c   Anomaly        2.2c. 

Mount Sorrel           15.51c.  Anomaly        1.81c.

My   Mean               16.4c     Anomaly        1.9c.

 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
20 September 2014 11:02:50

Met Office Hadley     15.6c.    Anomaly  1.5c. provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                 15.41c.  Anomlay  1.69c.

N-W                        15.93c   Anomaly  2.84c.

Mount Sorrel            15.54c   Anomaly  1.84c.

My  Mean                 16.4c.   Anomaly   2.9c.

         




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
21 September 2014 11:34:49

Met Office Hadley    15.6c.   Anomaly    1.6c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                15.53c. Anomaly    1.61c.

N-W                       15.94c. Anomaly    2.25c.

Mount   Sorrel        15.45c.  Anomaly    1.75c.

My   Mean              16.4c.   Anomaly     2.9c.

 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Saint Snow
21 September 2014 13:25:13

I'd be interested in one of GW's analysis for how he reckons the rest of the month will turn out. From my very rudimentary estimates, I think a fall by 0.4c - 0.7c by the 30th.

That'd do me.

But I may be wrong on the figures.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Stormchaser
21 September 2014 13:40:50

I'd be interested in one of GW's analysis for how he reckons the rest of the month will turn out. From my very rudimentary estimates, I think a fall by 0.4c - 0.7c by the 30th.

That'd do me.

But I may be wrong on the figures.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

That's about right based on the recent GFS runs - 15.0-15.1*C as a final figure before adjustments.

ECM's recent runs would probably produce something a tad higher, perhaps 15.2*C-15.3*C. Again, prior to adjustments.

Just a rough estimate of course.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Saint Snow
21 September 2014 13:48:23

I'd be interested in one of GW's analysis for how he reckons the rest of the month will turn out. From my very rudimentary estimates, I think a fall by 0.4c - 0.7c by the 30th.

That'd do me.

But I may be wrong on the figures.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

That's about right based on the recent GFS runs - 15.0-15.1*C as a final figure before adjustments.

ECM's recent runs would probably produce something a tad higher, perhaps 15.2*C-15.3*C. Again, prior to adjustments.

Just a rough estimate of course.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

Whatever, both you and I could have been looking at a bit of a disaster of a month with our optimistic predictions, but it's worked out OK


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Stormchaser
21 September 2014 20:42:11

I'd be interested in one of GW's analysis for how he reckons the rest of the month will turn out. From my very rudimentary estimates, I think a fall by 0.4c - 0.7c by the 30th.

That'd do me.

But I may be wrong on the figures.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

That's about right based on the recent GFS runs - 15.0-15.1*C as a final figure before adjustments.

ECM's recent runs would probably produce something a tad higher, perhaps 15.2*C-15.3*C. Again, prior to adjustments.

Just a rough estimate of course.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 

Whatever, both you and I could have been looking at a bit of a disaster of a month with our optimistic predictions, but it's worked out OK

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Well, I'm still likely to be over 1*C out - I was playing the loony card after all 

I'm going to be continuing with this madness for the rest of the year, just to see where it takes me... 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

ARTzeman
22 September 2014 11:40:34

Met Office Hadley    15.5c.     Anomaly     1.5c.  Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                15.15c.   Anomaly     1.42c.

N-W                       15.84c.   Anomaly     2.15c.

Mount Sorrel           15.20c.   Anomaly     1.50c.

My  Mean                16.3c.     Anomaly     1.8c.

     




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Global Warming
22 September 2014 13:43:18

I'd be interested in one of GW's analysis for how he reckons the rest of the month will turn out. From my very rudimentary estimates, I think a fall by 0.4c - 0.7c by the 30th.

That'd do me.

But I may be wrong on the figures.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

That's about right based on the recent GFS runs - 15.0-15.1*C as a final figure before adjustments.

ECM's recent runs would probably produce something a tad higher, perhaps 15.2*C-15.3*C. Again, prior to adjustments.

Just a rough estimate of course.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I have been away and the data I have for this month is as a result not quite as accurate as usual. But latest estimate is for the CET to finish at 15.01C. So broadly agree with both of your thoughts above.

Gavin P
22 September 2014 15:09:13

Will be a close run thing as to whether it's the warmest September since 2006 or just 2011.

Need to beat 15.1 for us to beat September 2011 and have the warmest September for 8 years.

Amazing how far below September 2006 we're going to be though - That was an incredible month. Think it will be a long time before we beat that month.


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Global Warming
22 September 2014 17:01:54

Will also be a close run thing as to whether September is warmer than August. We may just do it.

As I mentioned at the start of this thread we could see only the fourth ever year where June and September are both warmer than August. Last time this happened was 1891.

Global Warming
22 September 2014 17:14:16

Will be a close run thing as to whether it's the warmest September since 2006 or just 2011.

Need to beat 15.1 for us to beat September 2011 and have the warmest September for 8 years.

Amazing how far below September 2006 we're going to be though - That was an incredible month. Think it will be a long time before we beat that month.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

It was the overnight minimums that were the main reason why the CET for September 2006 was so high.

If you look at the maximum CET the figure for 2006 was 20.9C. That was only 0.1C higher than the 20.8C recorded way back in 1895. 4 other years have seen the September maximum CET exceed 20C.

More recently both 1999 and 2003 saw a September max CET of 19.9C.

So far this year the September max CET is at 19.8C. That figure will fall back slightly in the final week but not by much. So from a maximum temperature point of view this year will be one of the warmest on record. Possibly within the top 20.

The 2006 minimum CET for September at 12.8C was 0.6C higher than the second placed year and 1.3C higher than the third placed year. This year we are currently running at 10.9C and that figure will most certainly drop away a bit before the end of the month, despite a couple of warmer nights later this week.

springsunshine
22 September 2014 18:24:34

There certainly hasn`t been many low minimums here,last night being the lowest at 7.5c,thats the lowest since around mid may. The mean temp here is a whopping 16.6c for this september so far.

It certainly has been one of the longest summers i can recall.

Today is the first time there has been a hint of autumn in the air.

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
22 September 2014 18:48:31

That all sounds like a different country, currently 12.6C mean here, plenty of cool nights and very few warm days - lots of fog and mist.


Saint Snow
23 September 2014 09:02:04

There certainly hasn`t been many low minimums here,last night being the lowest at 7.5c,thats the lowest since around mid may. The mean temp here is a whopping 16.6c for this september so far.

It certainly has been one of the longest summers i can recall.

Today is the first time there has been a hint of autumn in the air.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

 

We've only been down to a 6.4c min (a few in the 7.0-7.6c range). I suspect yesterday was the lowest CET of the month at 12.6c  (max 18.2c; min 7.0c)

 

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

ARTzeman
23 September 2014 10:58:34

Met Office Hadley     15.4c.     Anomaly   1.4c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                 15.04c.    Anomaly   1.32c.

N-W                        15.66c     Anomaly   1.97c.

Mount Sorrel            15.09c.    Anomaly   1.39c.

My  Mean                 16.2c.     Anomaly    1.7c. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Saint Snow
23 September 2014 13:37:28

Met Office Hadley     15.4c.     Anomaly   1.4c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                 15.04c.    Anomaly   1.32c.

N-W                        15.66c     Anomaly   1.97c.

Mount Sorrel            15.09c.    Anomaly   1.39c.

My  Mean                 16.2c.     Anomaly    1.7c. 

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

 

Yikes, that's a chunky fall for this late in the month with little discernible change in the overall pattern. May get another drop in tomorrow's figures because last night was again chilly. But the cloud tonight should keep mins up at least. Anything north of 15.1c at the end of the month and I'll be happy.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Global Warming
23 September 2014 21:43:32

Some fairly big fluctuations expected in the CET over the next few days depending on how clear the skies are and hence how chilly it is at night. Still expecting the CET to finish close to 15.0C although it is now showing signs of possibly dipping towards 14.9C. Given the latest output though I would still expect 15C or above to be honest.

If we do come in at 15.0C for September this will mean that 2014 is still on course for possibly the warmest annual CET on record despite the cold August.

Highest CET means for the first 9 months of the year:

1779 11.68C
1846 11.66C
2014 11.65C (prov.)
1990 11.60C

As has been mentioned elsewhere the first week of October is currently looking very warm indeed potentially. Nothing that unusual about this though and still looks unlikely to be anywhere near as warm as the first week of October in 2011 - although tonight's ECM run would beg to differ.

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