The Weather Outlook

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polarwind
28 September 2010 07:37:45

I don't think this is an issue but an answer is needed.

Looking at the Arctic temperature chart below there are at least seven anomalously high readings in North America adjacent to the Arctic basin. Any known reasons for these or are they real?

This image will soon change - anyone know if there is an archive link?


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

AIMSIR
28 September 2010 14:47:08

Warm water flowing in from the North Pacific would be my guess.
The sst's have been quite high for some time now but seem to be easing off a bit lately.(Link below in bold)

DMI /COI [Satellite SST analysis]

Use the dropdown in the parameter box to view anomalies.

.

PK2
  • PK2
  • Advanced Member
28 September 2010 14:54:38

I don't think this is an issue but an answer is needed.

Looking at the Arctic temperature chart below there are at least seven anomalously high readings in North America adjacent to the Arctic basin. Any known reasons for these or are they real?

This image will soon change - anyone know if there is an archive link?

polarwind wrote:

If you want a permanent record upload the URL to an image hosting site . Thus (I've resized the image displayed but clicking on the link will go to the normal size version)

EDIT: Not quite sure you meant to post this here though??

Ulric
28 September 2010 16:14:25

Is this the key issues thread or another sea ice thread?


Solar is only worth it if your roof has toenail fungus.
llamedos
28 September 2010 16:23:33

Is this the key issues thread or another sea ice thread?

Ulric wrote:

Have to agree that there has been some wandering here recently.......perhaps it's out of sympathy as this thread, by it very nature, attracts less attention than some of the currently more contentious threads where debate is more the order of the day


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator

polarwind
30 September 2010 08:43:41

Warm water flowing in from the North Pacific would be my guess.
The sst's have been quite high for some time now but seem to be easing off a bit lately.(Link below in bold)

DMI /COI [Satellite SST analysis]

Use the dropdown in the parameter box to view anomalies.

.

AIMSIR wrote:

My comments are about the land temperature readings, AIMSIR - sorry if that was not clear. And the relevance to this thread is/was about the anomalous readings being perhaps, an indication (unlikely but....) of a small but significant distortion of true temperatues - the UHI argument, or, just plain erronous readings going into the vast collection of statistics.

Now, I don't know how the temperatues displayed  in these charts compare with the records that go on to compile the data base used in the figures that are argued about in the AGW debate. I was just hoping for some clarification.

 


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

polarwind
30 September 2010 08:47:04

I don't think this is an issue but an answer is needed.

Looking at the Arctic temperature chart below there are at least seven anomalously high readings in North America adjacent to the Arctic basin. Any known reasons for these or are they real?

This image will soon change - anyone know if there is an archive link?

PK2 wrote:

If you want a permanent record upload the URL to an image hosting site . Thus (I've resized the image displayed but clicking on the link will go to the normal size version)

EDIT: Not quite sure you meant to post this here though??

polarwind wrote:

Thanks PK2 - I am now using this service and learning some new tricks


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

AIMSIR
30 September 2010 14:43:18

Sorry for the above Polarwind.

Should have went to specsavers.

Stu N
25 October 2010 11:12:23

I'm have a really drawn out discussion (read: argument) on a different forum with a poster who says that because CO2 causes about 1/4 of greenhouse effect (in terms of radiative forcing), that must mean it has a 4x feedback factor.

Can anyone else see the flaw in this logic, or is it just me?

Gandalf The White
25 October 2010 11:16:43

I'm have a really drawn out discussion (read: argument) on a different forum with a poster who says that because CO2 causes about 1/4 of greenhouse effect (in terms of radiative forcing), that must mean it has a 4x feedback factor.

Can anyone else see the flaw in this logic, or is it just me?

Stu N wrote:

I assume he is drawing a direct link between the 1/4 and the 4x?  If so, I agree with you that the logic is flawed.  Not sure what point he is trying to make?  Surely by that logic the other 75% would also have 4x feedbacks for each quarter...?


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Stu N
25 October 2010 12:39:22

I'm have a really drawn out discussion (read: argument) on a different forum with a poster who says that because CO2 causes about 1/4 of greenhouse effect (in terms of radiative forcing), that must mean it has a 4x feedback factor.

Can anyone else see the flaw in this logic, or is it just me?

Gandalf The White wrote:

I assume he is drawing a direct link between the 1/4 and the 4x?  If so, I agree with you that the logic is flawed.  Not sure what point he is trying to make?  Surely by that logic the other 75% would also have 4x feedbacks for each quarter...?

Stu N wrote:

Yes, as far as I can tell he's working on the implicit assumption that CO2 is the only driver and all else is feedback, and although he denies this I can see no other explanation.

This logic makes sense only if you consider all non-condensible GHGs (not just CO2), and assume that if you took out all of those, the remaining water vapour would result in a greenhouse effect so small as to be negligible.

This paper suggests that 20% or so of the greenhouse effect would remain if you took out all the CO2 and let the system equilibriate. As a first approximation maybe the 4x is okay, but it sure helps (particularly if arguing with ardent, die hard sceptics) to be as clear and accurate as possible on all points.

breezy
08 November 2010 23:29:03

Key issues are regularly being discussed here;

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/05/clouds-the-wild-card-of-climate-change/

Gandalf The White
08 November 2010 23:31:42

Key issues are regularly being discussed here;

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/05/clouds-the-wild-card-of-climate-change/

breezy wrote:

With the greatest respect that is hardly a source of impartial scientific information and discussion....

You might as well say that there are good discussions about child-raising on the KingHerod.com website.....


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Stephen Wilde
10 November 2010 09:29:49

Gandalf, I don't think anyone needs your partisan opinion as to the merits of different sites.

Readers will make up their own minds.

You are just trying to prop up your own prejudices by spreading them around.

As for that cloud discussion even the IPCC concedes substantial ignorance in that area so it is clearly a key issue and it is being discussed at WUWT so breezy is right.

Gandalf The White
10 November 2010 10:57:24


Gandalf, I don't think anyone needs your partisan opinion as to the merits of different sites.

Readers will make up their own minds.

You are just trying to prop up your own prejudices by spreading them around.

As for that cloud discussion even the IPCC concedes substantial ignorance in that area so it is clearly a key issue and it is being discussed at WUWT so breezy is right.

Stephen Wilde wrote:

Sorry Stephen, I thought this was a Forum for people to express their views?   You express yours frequently enough.

WUWT is a sceptic site, which is precisely why the sceptics trawl its pages looking for the latest quasi-tabloid 'news' to lift and deposit in this Forum.  Whilst people do that I will continue to maintain my right to keep pointing out the inherent bias in anything that emerges from that site.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gray-Wolf
11 November 2010 08:19:44

Sadly ,G.T.W. , I know of no 'extreme science' sites to allow us the chance of doing the same. We're stuck with science papers ,reviews and the IPCC........


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Gray-Wolf
25 November 2010 18:51:55

And so here is a 'key issue' of AGW , updated for last years numbers;

http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/documents/GHG_bull_6_en.pdf

looks like Methane (from the permafrost/wetlands/tropical wetlands) is on the way up.


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

polarwind
17 December 2010 09:26:03

A key issue?

The free market demonstrates its creativity in the face of a potential human disaster -

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19878-carbon-trading-tempts-firms-to-make-greenhouse-gas.html

A handful of Chinese and Indian chemicals companies seemingly have the world over a barrel – or rather a large number of barrels of a super-greenhouse gas called HFC-23, which is 14,800 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

This week, apparently following Chinese threats to vent stockpiles of HFC-23 into the atmosphere, a UN panel issued two million valuable carbon credits to a company called Juhua. It has a factory in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, where the gas can be destroyed.

Nobody needs HFC-23. It is a waste by-product of the manufacture of a refrigerant called HCFC-22, used mostly in developing nations. To curb the release of HFC-23 into the atmosphere, the signatories to the Kyoto protocol agreed to pay carbon credits to refrigerant manufacturers that agree to capture and destroy it. The manufacturers can then sell the credits to western companies that want to offset their obligations to cut emissions of other greenhouse gases, under a Kyoto scheme known as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

The offer only applies to HCFC-22 plants that were built before 2000. Even so it has proved highly lucrative. By some estimates, the value of the carbon credits is up to 100 times the cost of incinerating HFC-23. The resulting income of Chinese companies alone is estimated to reach $1.6 billion by 2012.


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Stu N
17 December 2010 13:39:37

A key issue?

The free market demonstrates its creativity in the face of a potential human disaster

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Whoops! Hopefully that loophole will be closed. Carbon credits are definitely a tricky business. I'm not sure how I feel about them.

Of course, you'd only consider the venting of HFC-23 a problem if you believe that the greenhouse effect exists. Sadly some people are still arguing it doesn't, which is another key issue!

Ulric
17 December 2010 14:05:48

A key issue?

The free market demonstrates its creativity in the face of a potential human disaster

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

By threatening to vent the stockpile?

What would be really impressive is if the free market invented a way not to produce the stuff in the first place.


Solar is only worth it if your roof has toenail fungus.
polarwind
17 December 2010 22:04:52

A key issue?

The free market demonstrates its creativity in the face of a potential human disaster

Originally Posted by: Stu N 

Whoops! Hopefully that loophole will be closed. Carbon credits are definitely a tricky business. I'm not sure how I feel about them.

Of course, you'd only consider the venting of HFC-23 a problem if you believe that the greenhouse effect exists. Sadly some people are still arguing it doesn't, which is another key issue!

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Yes. Very sad that nations take a stance like that, but, that is the way that power politics works.


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Ulric
17 December 2010 22:27:38

Yes. Very sad that nations take a stance like that, but, that is the way that the Mafia works.

 

 


Solar is only worth it if your roof has toenail fungus.
polarwind
18 December 2010 09:21:57

Yes. Very sad that nations take a stance like that, but, that is the way that the Mafia works.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Ulric 

Indeed. Sometimes I wonder how one can tell the difference.


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Ulric
20 December 2010 15:44:45

Very nice article about comparing the various surface and satellite temperature series

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/12/16/comparing-temperature-data-sets/#more-3206


Solar is only worth it if your roof has toenail fungus.
Gray-Wolf
20 December 2010 22:37:04

Very nice article about comparing the various surface and satellite temperature series

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/12/16/comparing-temperature-data-sets/#more-3206

Originally Posted by: Ulric 

Thank you soooo much for that link Ulric!!!

It's been a tad frustrating relying on my 'understanding' and words to explain to folk why they are 'wrong' in their interpretations (Watts verbatum) of these 'discordent' data.

And a very Merry Christmas to you!


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

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