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My CET estimate is now tracking about 0.4C below Hadley so we can expect a large downward adjustment this month.
Another cold today leaves my CET estimate standing at 6.38C. The cold weather continues for another three days which will see us continuing to track well below the Nov 2010 CET. However, the 27th and 30th are expected to be about average and the 28th and 29th could be well above average. So by the month end we should be well above Nov 2010.
I currently expect the CET to finish at 5.99C this month which is 0.88C below the 1971-2000 mean.
...we may not have the snow but we certainly have the cold, relatively speaking!
Looks like a substantial error for me this month. I do wonder what the spread of predictions was, given the insistance on a mild month from the models and the Met Office back in late October.
Producing 6's today.
Met Office Hadley 6.8c. Anomaly -0.2c. provisional to 23rd.
Metcheck 6.50c. Anomaly -0.42c.
N-W 6.87c. Anomaly -0.03c.
My Mean 6.7c.
As of this morning, my maximum average is 0.772°C below the LTA, and my minimum average is 0.772°C below the LTA.That's not an error! A genuine fluke of statistics there Remarkably, my minimum average looks to fall below 3°C within a day or two, which then makes it the lowest I've recorded for November going back to 2003, with 2010 bang-on 3°C....we may not have the snow but we certainly have the cold, relatively speaking!
As of this morning, my maximum average is 0.772°C below the LTA, and my minimum average is 0.772°C below the LTA.
That's not an error! A genuine fluke of statistics there
Remarkably, my minimum average looks to fall below 3°C within a day or two, which then makes it the lowest I've recorded for November going back to 2003, with 2010 bang-on 3°C.
The big difference between this November and November 2010 was the fact that the first 2 weeks of November 2010 were extremely mild. Indeed if it had not been for the exceptional cold of the last 10 days - it could have approached the mildest November on record.
This November has been persistently chilly - It has not been very cold - but it has been somewhat chilly.
Now, if the last 10 days of this November were to emulate November 2010 - which we know it won't - but if it did - then that would have made this November the coldest one on record.
Met office Hadley 6.7c. Anomaly -0.3c. Provisional to 24th.
Metcheck 6.43c. Anomaly -0.50c.
N-W 6.79c. Anomaly -0.11c.
My Mean 6.5c.
So much for it being a mild month.my CET looks very sick,ho well,all ways December to have a go at.
I have to admit to being swayed by the Met Office prognosis of a much milder November even though my normal method pointed to the opposite.
Now for the next month - here's the contingency planners temperature outlook.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/c/A3_plots-temp-DJF.pdf
Will it be more accurate for December?
Decisions....decisions..........
Met office Hadley 6.6c. Anomaly -0.3c. Provisional to 25th.
Metcheck 6.28c. Anomaly -0.64c.
N-W 6.62c Anomaly -0.28c.
My Mean 6.4c.
Met Office Hadley 6.5c. Anomaly -0.3c. Provisional to 26th.
Metcheck 6.31c. Anomaly -0.62c.
N-W 6.63c. Anomaly -0.27c.
My Mean 6.3c.
Met Office Hadley 6.5c. Anomaly -0.3c. Provisional to 27th.
Metcheck 6.36c. Anomaly -0.56c.
N-W 6.69c. Anomaly -0.21c.
What sort of correction are we expecting on this one? 6.5C is still 0.3C too high for me.
A big correction this month. My estimate of the CET to yesterday is 6.06C so 0.44C lower than the provisional Hadley.
Met Office Hadley 6.6c. Anomaly -0.1c. Provisional to 28th.
Metcheck 6.42c. Anomaly -0.50c.
N-W 6.74c. Anomaly -0.16c.
Met Office Hadley 6.6c. Anomaly 0.0c. Provisional to 29th.
Metcheck 6.41c. Anomaly -0.51c.
N-W 6.73c Anomaly -0.17c.
I was bold with my CET prediction in the hope to move up the table. Unfortunately I went the wrong way!
Looks like this is going to be my month. So we are finishing on 6.6, now come up 0.3C downward correction!
Final figure is 6.17C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013
Congratulations to Alvin Meister who predicted 6.2C
Autumn CET finishes at 10.80C which is just under 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean mainly thanks to the very warm October.
This makes it the 33rd warmest Autumn in the 355 year CET series but there have been 8 warmer Autumns going back only as far as 1999. This just shows how warm Autumn has been as a season in recent years.