I remember in our neck of the woods getting some decent snow depths in April and let alone the famous snowfall in June around about 1987 I think it was

 So above Indicators still pointing to average to warm.

November however now looking like having a colder than average second half which could mean autumn finshes up as warm wet on pattern matching ( a cold indicator)rather than very warm wet (a warm indicator).Wont know which until end November.

Ladybirds clusterd on winter frames but not increased to level of November 2010.

My own punt -winter overall above average  but February below.

Surely March 2013 will have put pay to these type of comments!

My own punt would agree with you - around the 'slightly above average' mark. I think it'll be wet, too - in the region of 115% to 130% of average.

I think this November coldish snap will get excitement & expectation levels up, with the winter itself proving a bit of a disappointment; any cold spells being depressingly brief.

That's my winter forecast based on gut instinct and how I think the global pattern is behaving.

I agree. Unfortunately the oncoming cold spell will raise hopes, but it could well be the only northern blocking we see until mid Feb

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The only thing I will say is, 10 days ago no one saw this cold spell/snap coming it was mild all the way  

not quite true marcus - go and have a read of the MOD thread for the 5th. the ecm was throwing out a progressive atlantic ridge and the ecm ens were trending much colder at the two week range.

there were hints

There were a few people I chat to who run Facebook pages who saw the potential for this cold spell weeks ago. How they spotted it I have no idea but kudos to them!

Well they didn't did they?

As mentioned above, there were some signs, but then there have been other signs previously that haven't born fruit. There's no magic forecaster or untapped talent. Professional forecasters are only as good and as accurate as the info they are privy to. Amateur forecasters not even that good.

Indeed. You are more likely to see a white Easter than you are a white Christmas in parts of the UK and December is often a milder month than January or February despite longer daylight hours and the strength of the sun being greater yet some people still write off the chance of any snow once February is out (or for some even January!).

Yes, I was just making the point that some did actually spot the potential for this cold spell 10 days ago or even before that

On the 29th Oct I sent Gavin P and Gusty a PM asking there views on a cold and potentially snowy end to November due to a family member having to order some bits for the Manager who always seems to sniff out snow potential a month or so out, god knows what he looks at/studies but it's something to do with planets and atmosphere I think

But whatever or whoever predicts what there will be times when some are wrong and some are right, some will make big calls and get it right and other make big calls and it goes wrong and they are left with egg on face.

The way I have seen members with knowledge discuss/predict/forecast over the last two weeks just highlights why I love weather and weather forums. Nobody can ever really know 100% and thats the joys of it for me because you never know what's around the corner 

Ok...............if we go back to the very start of November when the 'Atlantic train' was sending low after low across us, all the talk was for a mild month ( November ) and it being a write off, I remember asking if I would even see afrost this month . I take what you are saying about hints but I don't remember too many on here calling a blast from the North just after mid month .

Things can change at very short notice, that is all I am saying.

Shame they didn't post on here , they could be taking all the plaudits

Ah go on. Tell us what they said

One of my memories of the build up to the Dec 2010 was Retron pointing out some pre-cursers to a likely cold spell - this being a good fortnight or so before the cold hit. As far as I can remember, he doesn't do this very often at all, so it wasn't a case of 'if I say it often enough, I'm bound to be right one time'

Well impressed I was.

Pretty much sums up my gut feeling for the coming winter too.

December&february slightly above average temperature and rainfall wise

January could see the only real cold spell lasting 2-3 weeks at most!

March will be with a 100% certainty be warmer than 2013

I think this cold snap was reasonably easy to spot in advance.  Maybe I just got lucky?

Overall in terms of winter I do think it will be mostly mild, from middle of December to middle of February, wet in January too.  Cold to start and cold to end, especially March.

I really hope it is mild as I dearly do not want the vacuous "forecasters" that are quoted in the front page of the Daily Express to be right.  Oh and to save on gas bills.

Hmmmm. The D.E did

And YET again they will claim they were right - even though it looks like at this stage just a bog-standard late-November coolish spell.

They are disgrace to journalism....

Really????

Indeed.

They now claim the ice age begins with 6 inches of snow next week

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

CFS is trending more settled for December, with the Atlantic 500mb anomalies close to the LTA - so perhaps a quiet month overall, but that does allow for some trough intrusions, and who knows, some could travel into Europe.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd3.gif

Now just what is CFS detecting at the moment I wonder? That Arctic blocking in January has intensified substantially over the past 10 days, before which it projected on and off. The intense February blocking has been persistently forecast for perhaps as long as a month now, and for me that rings the 'one to seriously keep an eye on' bell, which was installed in my mind after the run-up to March 2013.

It does look a lot like 2012/13 but reaching dramatic levels almost two months earlier in the year.

Looking back at the December projection, that strong Pacific anomaly could be important for what CFS sees afterwards. I think there's also a chance that the anomaly near/over the UK will be about as strong when all's said and done. Perhaps we'll see strong ridges advancing into the Arctic and shredding the Polar westerlies... yeah I'm in dreamland now    ...but I do consider it a genuine possibility 

^^^^^^ Good update SC ^^^^^^