What a crazy old September this is. After around a week of maximum temperatures struggling to get much above my predicted CET value (15.2°C), much of the CET zone is now seeing minimums falling not much below that figure!
By my calculations it will now take something truly exceptional to bring the CET up to 15°C, let alone above.
Attempting to account for GFS tending to drop temperatures too far overnight (was 3°C too low for last night in many areas), and taking ECM into consideration, a rough estimate for the final CET is 14.7°C, but that's dependant on the Atlantic being slower to push NE as per the ECM evolution.
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On