Yep, already down to 16.01 after the 6th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

After a cool night last night and with a chilly weekend expected, we'll be well down into the 15's by Monday.

Met Office Hadley   16.0c. Anomaly 1.3c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck              15.78c. Anomaly 2.06c.

N - W                  16.41c.  Anomaly 2.71c.

My  Mean            17.0c.

Met Office Hadley   15.4c.  Anomaly  0.8c. Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck             15.28c.  Anomaly  1.56c.

N - W                  15.9c.    Anomaly  2.2c.

My  Mean             16.6c.

15.4 to the 7th, should drop quite a bit more this week.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Net Office Hadley   14.9c.  Anomaly  0.3c.  Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck               14.81c. Anomaly  1.09c.

N - W                    15.47c.  Anomaly  1.77c.

My   Mean              16.0c.

Already down into the 14's!

Ouch... I sure am glad to have 21 members within half a degree Celsius of my prediction. Nontheless, this month could hurt in terms of average prediction error if we don't see a major turnaround by around 2/3 of the way through.

I've long suspected that some notably chilly months would close out this year, but I didn't think September would be one of them!

Already down into the 14's!

 

I've just had two single figure minimums in a row - that sure makes things feel a heck of a lot colder now.

Getting lower that Met Hadley figure.

Met check is showing 14.44c. Anomaly 0.72.

N-W A bit higher at 15.14c. Anomaly 1.44c.

My Mean at present  15.8c...

Met office (hadley) has 11.8c, 11.1c, 11.9c for 7th-9th so now down to 14.5 average

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

Should be into the 13's by the end of the week - After next weeks northerly will we find ourselves in the 12's?

Met office (hadley) has 11.8c, 11.1c, 11.9c for 7th-9th so now down to 14.5 average

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

Should be into the 13's by the end of the week - After next weeks northerly will we find ourselves in the 12's?

The NOAA analogues were pointing to a CET figure between 12 and 14 - emphasis on the lower end of that band -  after the big bust last month I was very wary of a repeat, especially as the models were indicating a well above first half of the month.

The forecast models are still all over the place. However, I think my 15C will be way too high now.

I've ballsed this month up that's for sure.

The forecast models are still all over the place. However, I think my 15C will be way too high now.

I've ballsed this month up that's for sure.

 

Northerly blasts in september usually only have a large impact on more northern areas, so I'm hoping we might just be okay. Actually if CE gets stuck just in front of a cold front, temperatures could get very high; low 20s e.c.t. I see alot of warm sectors so I'm not giving up just yet...

Met office (hadley) has 11.8c, 11.1c, 11.9c for 7th-9th so now down to 14.5 average

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

Should be into the 13's by the end of the week - After next weeks northerly will we find ourselves in the 12's?

Given we are already 9 days into the momth we would need some especially low returns to get into the 12's, I just did a CET estimate to the 18th and it comes to 13.5.

A CET in the 12's is possible if the latter part of the month sees a northerly bias persist.

A consequence of this is that the warm summer has left SST's in the North Sea higher then normal so any low pressure that does slide through the north sea into the continent is going to give a lot of rain. Today is the perfect example of that - a miserable day here.

Met Office Hadley   14.4c. Anomaly  0.2c.  Provisional to 10 th.

metcheck              14.02c.   Anomaly 0.29c.

N - W                   14.96c.   Anomaly  1.26c.

My  Mean              15.5c.  

Below average now.

Not suprised. It feels really cold now everywhere.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Met Office Hadley 14.2c. Anomaly  -0.2c. provisional to 11 th.

Metcheck            13.86c. Anomaly  0.14c.

N -W                  14.84c. Anomaly  1.14c.

My   Mean           15.3c.

Met Office Hadley 14.4c.    Anomaly  -0.0c.   provisional to 12 th.

Metcheck             13.91c.  Anomaly 0.19c.

N - W                  14.98c.  Anomaly 1.28c.

My  Mean             15.4c.       

Until the last few days my calculations were closely tracking the Hadley provisional figures. But for each of the last three days my CET estimate has been 1C or more below Hadley meaning I am now running about 0.3C below Hadley.

Up to yesterday my CET estimate is 14.11C.

Today should be another above average day due largely to a very warm night last night. But from tomorrow onwards we go back way below average again.

I am currently estimating the CET will be at 12.99C by 26 Sept. So a sub 13C CET now looks distinctly possible. So could be colder than last year which finished at 13.0C.