A very clear and interesting analysis. Thanks. I would be interested in your thoughts on what a 'good' summer actually means. Predominance of dry weather for sure but were those summers cool to warm, rather than warm to hot.
I can't remember a similar run of summers that have been so noticeably cool as to those since 2006. With a complete lack of AH heading our way I wonder if the cool theme will be maintained this year albeit much drier and sunnier.
Rob
Your welcome
For me, a 'good' summer manages average temperatures and average rainfall, with most of the rainfall from convective showers. Due to the fact that the anomalies are only a rough guide to the conditions on the ground, I think that seeing signs of a 'good' summer covers the various definitions that most people have (there are of course exceptions, such as those who'd rather it was cool and damp).
I think the most encouraging signs from my study are the ones pointing towards a decline in Arctic pressure and associated high latitude blocking, and those +ve mid-latitude anomalies which indicate an Azores High that's often able to extend well on into the UK and Europe
The thing is, that projection, as opposed to one of a completely opposite sort of summer, is entirely a result of how a single month turned out - March 2013.
FWIW the CFS output for the summer that I've seen over the past few months has been more encouraging than anything I can recall from the past 3-5 years. Right now it looks average and westerly driven for May, similar for June, and then good for July. It's been indicating a decent July for a long time now.
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