PK2
  • PK2
  • Advanced Member
16 August 2010 10:42:41

Robertski wrote:


No.


Your summary is completely over the top, the Arctic Ice pack is recovering albeit slowly. Antacrtic Ice is and has been well above "normal". We have had one the coldest Southern hemisphere winters in the Southern Hemisphere for about 40 years. The Arctic has just had one of its coldest recorded Summers. The East coast of the United States has also been very cold. There is far too much nonsense being made of the heat in Russia which has got to do with our current unusual weather pattern and nothing to do with any AGW. Your post sums up nicely the one sided bias that is being put out by the media. Over 400 people dying in Southern hemisphere cold and large areas losing masses of wild life to the cold and not one report on the television that i know of.


Do you mean west coast as SEMerc says? East coast looks fairly warm to me from this map. And no mention of the flooding of nearly 1/5 of Pakistan in your rundown of climate extremes this year? Or China's flooding and landslides. It's been a tough year of weather extremes this year. Not that I'm saying it means much about AGW.

Robertski
16 August 2010 10:46:44

PK2 wrote:


Robertski wrote:


No.


Your summary is completely over the top, the Arctic Ice pack is recovering albeit slowly. Antacrtic Ice is and has been well above "normal". We have had one the coldest Southern hemisphere winters in the Southern Hemisphere for about 40 years. The Arctic has just had one of its coldest recorded Summers. The East coast of the United States has also been very cold. There is far too much nonsense being made of the heat in Russia which has got to do with our current unusual weather pattern and nothing to do with any AGW. Your post sums up nicely the one sided bias that is being put out by the media. Over 400 people dying in Southern hemisphere cold and large areas losing masses of wild life to the cold and not one report on the television that i know of.


Do you mean west coast as SEMerc says? East coast looks fairly warm to me from this map. And no mention of the flooding of nearly 1/5 of Pakistan in your rundown of climate extremes this year? Or China's flooding and landslides. It's been a tough year of weather extremes this year. Not that I'm saying it means much about AGW.



Not rellevent to my post (tragic as it is)as we have had masses and masses of this on the media. I was pointing out Cold weather events that did not make the media at large.


I have edited my above post, thanks for pointing out the West/East error.


 


Cryosphere Today - Antarctic Sea Ice anomaly - click to enlarge


 

PK2
  • PK2
  • Advanced Member
16 August 2010 10:54:39

Robertski wrote:


PK2 wrote:


Robertski wrote:


No.


Your summary is completely over the top, the Arctic Ice pack is recovering albeit slowly. Antacrtic Ice is and has been well above "normal". We have had one the coldest Southern hemisphere winters in the Southern Hemisphere for about 40 years. The Arctic has just had one of its coldest recorded Summers. The East coast of the United States has also been very cold. There is far too much nonsense being made of the heat in Russia which has got to do with our current unusual weather pattern and nothing to do with any AGW. Your post sums up nicely the one sided bias that is being put out by the media. Over 400 people dying in Southern hemisphere cold and large areas losing masses of wild life to the cold and not one report on the television that i know of.


Do you mean west coast as SEMerc says? East coast looks fairly warm to me from this map. And no mention of the flooding of nearly 1/5 of Pakistan in your rundown of climate extremes this year? Or China's flooding and landslides. It's been a tough year of weather extremes this year. Not that I'm saying it means much about AGW.



Not rellevent to my post (tragic as it is)as we have had masses and masses of this on the media. I was pointing out Cold weather events that did not make the media at large.


And so we should have, it's probably as big an "event" as the problems following Katrina, if not bigger. It is true to say there's been no mention cold weather, or indeed no thread on TWO about the subject?

Robertski
28 August 2010 22:55:59

Moved this from the penguin thread as it is pretty interesting.....Good find fafhrd.


 


Remember the Sudden Stratospheric Warming we experienced in January 2009, and the effects on the weather in Western Europe and the UK? Well something similar happened over Antarctica in July 2010. Could this have been the reason for the SH cold plunge this winter?


also:



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif


polarwind
01 September 2010 07:53:45

Robertski wrote:


Moved this from the penguin thread as it is pretty interesting.....Good find fafhrd.


 


Remember the Sudden Stratospheric Warming we experienced in January 2009, and the effects on the weather in Western Europe and the UK? Well something similar happened over Antarctica in July 2010. Could this have been the reason for the SH cold plunge this winter?


also:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif " href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif



In the Hoax thread recently, Stephen Wilde said this -


In both case modulated by the effect of solar surface activity on the upper atmosphere which seems to be capable of altering stratospheric temperatures and thus the tropospheric pressure distributions.  


The chart you have shown, Robertski, is a good example. Do you agree?  


And what do you think about possible tropospheric changes caused by changes to the mesosphere - thermosphere


see - here


Essan asked this question -


Is there any connection between the thermosphere and the surface climate?


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
28 September 2010 07:37:45

I don't think this is an issue but an answer is needed.


Looking at the Arctic temperature chart below there are at least seven anomalously high readings in North America adjacent to the Arctic basin. Any known reasons for these or are they real?


This image will soon change - anyone know if there is an archive link?



"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
AIMSIR
28 September 2010 14:47:08

Warm water flowing in from the North Pacific would be my guess.
The sst's have been quite high for some time now but seem to be easing off a bit lately.(Link below in bold)


DMI /COI [Satellite SST analysis]


Use the dropdown in the parameter box to view anomalies.


.

PK2
  • PK2
  • Advanced Member
28 September 2010 14:54:38

polarwind wrote:


I don't think this is an issue but an answer is needed.


Looking at the Arctic temperature chart below there are at least seven anomalously high readings in North America adjacent to the Arctic basin. Any known reasons for these or are they real?


This image will soon change - anyone know if there is an archive link?


If you want a permanent record upload the URL to an image hosting site . Thus (I've resized the image displayed but clicking on the link will go to the normal size version)



EDIT: Not quite sure you meant to post this here though??

Ulric
28 September 2010 16:14:25

Is this the key issues thread or another sea ice thread?


If someone succeeds in provoking you, realise that your own mind is complicit in the provocation. - Epicetus
llamedos
28 September 2010 16:23:33

Ulric wrote:


Is this the key issues thread or another sea ice thread?


Have to agree that there has been some wandering here recently.......perhaps it's out of sympathy as this thread, by it very nature, attracts less attention than some of the currently more contentious threads where debate is more the order of the day


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
polarwind
30 September 2010 08:43:41

AIMSIR wrote:


Warm water flowing in from the North Pacific would be my guess.
The sst's have been quite high for some time now but seem to be easing off a bit lately.(Link below in bold)


DMI /COI [Satellite SST analysis]


Use the dropdown in the parameter box to view anomalies.


.


My comments are about the land temperature readings, AIMSIR - sorry if that was not clear. And the relevance to this thread is/was about the anomalous readings being perhaps, an indication (unlikely but....) of a small but significant distortion of true temperatues - the UHI argument, or, just plain erronous readings going into the vast collection of statistics.


Now, I don't know how the temperatues displayed  in these charts compare with the records that go on to compile the data base used in the figures that are argued about in the AGW debate. I was just hoping for some clarification.


 


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
30 September 2010 08:47:04

PK2 wrote:


polarwind wrote:


I don't think this is an issue but an answer is needed.


Looking at the Arctic temperature chart below there are at least seven anomalously high readings in North America adjacent to the Arctic basin. Any known reasons for these or are they real?


This image will soon change - anyone know if there is an archive link?


If you want a permanent record upload the URL to an image hosting site . Thus (I've resized the image displayed but clicking on the link will go to the normal size version)


EDIT: Not quite sure you meant to post this here though??


Thanks PK2 - I am now using this service and learning some new tricks


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
AIMSIR
30 September 2010 14:43:18

Sorry for the above Polarwind.


Should have went to specsavers.

Stu N
25 October 2010 11:12:23

I'm have a really drawn out discussion (read: argument) on a different forum with a poster who says that because CO2 causes about 1/4 of greenhouse effect (in terms of radiative forcing), that must mean it has a 4x feedback factor.


Can anyone else see the flaw in this logic, or is it just me?

Gandalf The White
25 October 2010 11:16:43

Stu N wrote:


I'm have a really drawn out discussion (read: argument) on a different forum with a poster who says that because CO2 causes about 1/4 of greenhouse effect (in terms of radiative forcing), that must mean it has a 4x feedback factor.


Can anyone else see the flaw in this logic, or is it just me?



I assume he is drawing a direct link between the 1/4 and the 4x?  If so, I agree with you that the logic is flawed.  Not sure what point he is trying to make?  Surely by that logic the other 75% would also have 4x feedbacks for each quarter...?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Stu N
25 October 2010 12:39:22

Gandalf The White wrote:


Stu N wrote:


I'm have a really drawn out discussion (read: argument) on a different forum with a poster who says that because CO2 causes about 1/4 of greenhouse effect (in terms of radiative forcing), that must mean it has a 4x feedback factor.


Can anyone else see the flaw in this logic, or is it just me?



I assume he is drawing a direct link between the 1/4 and the 4x?  If so, I agree with you that the logic is flawed.  Not sure what point he is trying to make?  Surely by that logic the other 75% would also have 4x feedbacks for each quarter...?



Yes, as far as I can tell he's working on the implicit assumption that CO2 is the only driver and all else is feedback, and although he denies this I can see no other explanation.


This logic makes sense only if you consider all non-condensible GHGs (not just CO2), and assume that if you took out all of those, the remaining water vapour would result in a greenhouse effect so small as to be negligible.


This paper suggests that 20% or so of the greenhouse effect would remain if you took out all the CO2 and let the system equilibriate. As a first approximation maybe the 4x is okay, but it sure helps (particularly if arguing with ardent, die hard sceptics) to be as clear and accurate as possible on all points.

breezy
08 November 2010 23:29:03

Key issues are regularly being discussed here;


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/05/clouds-the-wild-card-of-climate-change/

Gandalf The White
08 November 2010 23:31:42

breezy wrote:


Key issues are regularly being discussed here;


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/05/clouds-the-wild-card-of-climate-change/



With the greatest respect that is hardly a source of impartial scientific information and discussion....


You might as well say that there are good discussions about child-raising on the KingHerod.com website.....


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Stephen Wilde
10 November 2010 09:29:49

Gandalf, I don't think anyone needs your partisan opinion as to the merits of different sites.

Readers will make up their own minds.

You are just trying to prop up your own prejudices by spreading them around.

As for that cloud discussion even the IPCC concedes substantial ignorance in that area so it is clearly a key issue and it is being discussed at WUWT so breezy is right.

Gandalf The White
10 November 2010 10:57:24

Stephen Wilde wrote:


Gandalf, I don't think anyone needs your partisan opinion as to the merits of different sites.

Readers will make up their own minds.

You are just trying to prop up your own prejudices by spreading them around.

As for that cloud discussion even the IPCC concedes substantial ignorance in that area so it is clearly a key issue and it is being discussed at WUWT so breezy is right.


Sorry Stephen, I thought this was a Forum for people to express their views?   You express yours frequently enough.


WUWT is a sceptic site, which is precisely why the sceptics trawl its pages looking for the latest quasi-tabloid 'news' to lift and deposit in this Forum.  Whilst people do that I will continue to maintain my right to keep pointing out the inherent bias in anything that emerges from that site.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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