The Weather Outlook

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Younger Dryas
05 November 2011 18:51:55

Will Hand over on UK Sci has posted that Exeter have hinted at a Major Strat warming event, he didnt say when but that may help with a pattern change

Originally Posted by: RWL757 

Yes, so the indications are now for a severe cold spell in the near future

Gavin D
05 November 2011 20:50:00

Positive weather solutions and Netweather both have a white christmas percentage tool on their websites and both with 50 days to go don't offer anything higher than 30% for Scotland and North East England, still ample time for change will be interesting to see how this changes as the days count down to the big day.

White Christmas 2011

Percentage-o-Meter (PWS)


Christmas Forecast 2011


Uk Temperature average anomaly (Netweather)


http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2011/cfsxmas1.png 


 

Nordic Snowman
05 November 2011 23:32:15

Positive weather solutions and Netweather both have a white christmas percentage tool on their websites and both with 50 days to go don't offer anything higher than 30% for Scotland and North East England, still ample time for change will be interesting to see how this changes as the days count down to the big day.

White Christmas 2011

Percentage-o-Meter (PWS)


Christmas Forecast 2011


Uk Temperature average anomaly (Netweather)


http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2011/cfsxmas1.png 


 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

They are just gimics. They mean nothing. 

Bjorli, Norway

Website 

SEMerc
05 November 2011 23:49:31

Positive weather solutions and Netweather both have a white christmas percentage tool on their websites and both with 50 days to go don't offer anything higher than 30% for Scotland and North East England, still ample time for change will be interesting to see how this changes as the days count down to the big day.

White Christmas 2011

Percentage-o-Meter (PWS)


Christmas Forecast 2011


Uk Temperature average anomaly (Netweather)


http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2011/cfsxmas1.png 


 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

They have a lot of front, on that page.

haggishunter
05 November 2011 23:54:42

They have a lot of front, on that page.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 

I trust it's a cold front.

Gavin D
06 November 2011 12:22:27

Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Steam Fog
06 November 2011 12:32:47

Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Seems to be a bit of an unhelpful spin placed on the chart, but that doesn't surprise me.

That chart shows a perfectly average anomaly for winter. So could be a little on the cold side could be on the mild side. Could be very cold in part of the month could be very mild in another.

picturesareme
06 November 2011 12:33:44

Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

whatever they end up showing the opposit always seems to happen

Jonesy
06 November 2011 12:51:43

Positive weather solutions and Netweather both have a white christmas percentage tool on their websites and both with 50 days to go don't offer anything higher than 30% for Scotland and North East England, still ample time for change will be interesting to see how this changes as the days count down to the big day.

White Christmas 2011

Percentage-o-Meter (PWS)


Christmas Forecast 2011


Uk Temperature average anomaly (Netweather)


http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2011/cfsxmas1.png 


 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

TWO Have one also...

And North and South currently 27%

 http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Me & Gusty go with 10% Chance for SE at present

Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !

John p
06 November 2011 12:57:29

Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Thanks for the breaking news on all mild related matters.

Pint of mild anyone?

*rolls eyes smiley*

Camberley, Surrey
Frostbite80
06 November 2011 15:49:14

Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Oh come on! When is this..........I hope it will be mild for 12 months of the year going to end? this is really starting to get on my wick now! Those charts show average winter weather, which to be honest will suit me! I just wish some people would have a balanced view without trying to wind other members up which tbh you continually try to do! personally i think you are a cold ramper trying to get to a point where you don't get disappointed if it is a mild winter but there we go that is just imo!

Essan
06 November 2011 16:14:02

Those hoping for a cold winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

I know it's the infamous CFS charts but what a difference a year makes, this time last year Northern Europe was under deep blues for December and lighter blues for January.

Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 

Oh come on! When is this..........I hope it will be mild for 12 months of the year going to end? this is really starting to get on my wick now! Those charts show average winter weather, which to be honest will suit me! I just wish some people would have a balanced view without trying to wind other members up which tbh you continually try to do! personally i think you are a cold ramper trying to get to a point where you don't get disappointed if it is a mild winter but there we go that is just imo!

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 Calm down!  It's only a model output

Gavin was simply pointing out that they do not show the cold they were showing this time last year.   Fact.   He has no expressed any opinion on whether he would like it to prove correct or not. 

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

doctormog
06 November 2011 16:25:50
Those hoping for a mild winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Snow Hoper
06 November 2011 16:50:32

Those hoping for a mild winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 

Oh come on! When is this..........I hope it will be cold for 12 months of the year going to end? this is really starting to get on my wick now! Those charts show average winter weather, which to be honest will suit me! I just wish some people would have a balanced view without trying to wind other members up which tbh you continually try to do! personally i think you are a mild ramper trying to get to a point where you don't get disappointed if it is a cold winter but there we go that is just imo!

 

 

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

doctormog
06 November 2011 16:54:22
LOL!

In all seriousness though I have rarely seen long range charts change as much as this CPC t2m anomaly charts.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Snow Hoper
06 November 2011 17:00:08

LOL!

In all seriousness though I have rarely seen long range charts change as much as this CPC t2m anomaly charts.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Shows I think, just how difficult this one looks to call atm

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

doctormog
06 November 2011 17:01:42

LOL!

In all seriousness though I have rarely seen long range charts change as much as this CPC t2m anomaly charts.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

Shows I think, just how difficult this one looks to call atm

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I agree Jon. It might be my memory playing tricks but I am sure last year's chart were more consistent.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Steam Fog
06 November 2011 17:09:01

Those hoping for a mild winter should look away now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

 

Oh come on! When is this..........I hope it will be cold for 12 months of the year going to end? this is really starting to get on my wick now! Those charts show average winter weather, which to be honest will suit me! I just wish some people would have a balanced view without trying to wind other members up which tbh you continually try to do! personally i think you are a mild ramper trying to get to a point where you don't get disappointed if it is a cold winter but there we go that is just imo!

 

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

As to the "Fact" if someone consistently and repeatedly responds to anything remotely mild or dry by going 

And then repeatedly (ad nauseum) questioning anything which looks remotely cold (and I admit the Madden/Express point was fair, but I got it after the first post), then I may just may draw a conclusion about which direction he's going in. 

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

sunnyhighpressure
06 November 2011 18:19:40
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif 

Up and Up we go. The rest of November and most of winter, a weaker la nina than last year. I know the link above is not everything, but it is encouraging to see. The blue runs are new forecast members.

Gavin P, was SPOT ON with the ever weakening la nina. If we can trust this, then maybe this is why the models are starting to slip back into the blocking territory. There is definitely signs. With the predicted weakening La nina, it bodes well for colder than average weather. It adds up, because the chart above shows November/december onwards to be around -1 to -1.5 which is weak.

I don't know how true it is, but someone mentioned that there is a major stratospheric warming coming up as well.

Essan
07 November 2011 08:02:21

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 



No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

Younger Dryas
07 November 2011 10:03:01

I feel it's trolling and the frequency with which it is being rolled out is getting tiresome (much as if several times a day someone was saying I hope its cold and rains all through summer).

Originally Posted by: Essan 



No more so than someone constantly looking for the slightest hint that it'll be the coldest winter on record

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

Essan - why drag me into this private dispute?

Gavin D
07 November 2011 10:14:28

Weather Onlines take for the end of Autumn and into December

Valid from 23/11 to 20/12 2011

Settled mid-November

'Winter is on my head, but eternal spring is in my heart'. Victor Hugo (1802 - 1885)

There remains some confidence that the current unsettled conditions will abate through the middle of the month when a recovery in pressure takes place, the exact location of this is somewhat uncertain at the moment, although on current evidence an anticyclone is expected to build to the north before slipping into the UK and taking control of the pattern.

The latter stages of November see low pressure becoming more influential across the UK and a more Atlantic orientated flow establishing to carry us through to the end of the month. Colder air is anticipated to be drawn into the pattern from the north or northeast, so more of a wintry flavour to close the month into the beginning of December.

The first week of December should see these rather chilly conditions continuing for a while with low pressure in control, less cold air should move through the UK as a westerly Atlantic flow establishes behind a transient ridge of high pressure, rain and strong winds affecting all areas.

Full outlook for the first 3 weeks of December can be found here

 

GemmaD
07 November 2011 10:54:48
Third gritter in 2 nights.
Gavin P
07 November 2011 11:52:21

Valid from 23/11 to 20/12 2011

Settled mid-November

'Winter is on my head, but eternal spring is in my heart'. Victor Hugo (1802 - 1885)

There remains some confidence that the current unsettled conditions will abate through the middle of the month when a recovery in pressure takes place, the exact location of this is somewhat uncertain at the moment, although on current evidence an anticyclone is expected to build to the north before slipping into the UK and taking control of the pattern.

The latter stages of November see low pressure becoming more influential across the UK and a more Atlantic orientated flow establishing to carry us through to the end of the month. Colder air is anticipated to be drawn into the pattern from the north or northeast, so more of a wintry flavour to close the month into the beginning of December.

The first week of December should see these rather chilly conditions continuing for a while with low pressure in control, less cold air should move through the UK as a westerly Atlantic flow establishes behind a transient ridge of high pressure, rain and strong winds affecting all areas.

Full outlook for the first 3 weeks of December can be found here

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Looks as though WEATHERONLINE are forecasting another wintry run up to Christmas - For third year running.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

RobSnowman
07 November 2011 13:25:50
Yes, it is important to name the person/organisation's work your copying not just link it, out of respect and also, for the ease of the reader.
I built this snowman of myself.

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