PC's forecast for the end of November and much of December sounds very similar to the same period in 2010. I can actually see where he's coming from considering the way the pattern looks to be slowly setting itself up during the first half of November, although I can see little to give guidance on how severe any cold outbreaks will be.

With the pattern having been and looking blocked for such a long time, the potential for very cold conditions will be high come the close of this month. Of course, that potential could easily be realised somewhere other than the UK - there could be some very tense times come the final week of November!

I wonder how long it will be until the first stellar cold run appears in GFS FI

ScotRail has spent £2m on train deicing equipment, make of that what you will. Hopefully it's not a curse!

As far as I know no frost was forecast, and despite clear skies there was not even a ground frost anywhere near the capital! I think someone must have got their wires crossed, unless it was a practice run?

Some councils are preparing for winter by doing 'test gritting'. A few were spotted here too and in nearby Bradford.

I guess it's more complicated than, er, dropping grit out of the back of a lorry then? 

Anyone seen the front page of the Daily Express today

Is it true

What does it say on p4???

Just a pity IMO that they didn't do it this time last year, given the weather we had in late December 2009 and early January 2010. Had they done it prior to last winter in view of the weather we had the previous winter, they might have saved themselves a whole lot of bother last December.

Front page says

Siberian Freeze to hit Britain , it will be here in weeks.

Page 4 says

Britain in killer cold alert as Siberian winter rolls in.

For those who have not saw the front page of the Express today you can view it below,

http://images.dailyexpress.co.uk/img/covers/257x330front/2011-11-02.jpg

The Pressdisplay front page image shows that there's a quote from Brian (Gaze) on p4?

It is currently -45°C in Ojmjakon so we're in for a shock when that weather arrives. Looking at the weather stories in the Express it makes me wonder what tripe they make up for their "news" story if they use the same standard of sources or misinterpret more reliable sources. I don't know if this is the case but the sensationalist weather "stories" do not instill confidence!

For those worrying about prospects for this winter based on current conditions i found this photo from this time last year. As you can see things were indeed very mild and we all know what happened only a few weeks later. I am not saying that we will see sub zero temperatures in a few weeks I am just saying things can and will change...eventually.

Weather sells newspapers NOT forecasts.

With these meridional amplified troughs and ridges it's fun watching how such temps could possibly flip again at some point to their subzero equivalent in winter 2011/12 

Just 3 days into November and yet the records keep tumbling and the mercury keeps rising in Norway:-

http://www.yr.no/nyheter/1.7859377

From yr.no and in Norwegian, but you get the gist.

The snow has all but disappeared away from the higher mountains and I think this applies to much of Scandinavia in fact. Snow cover is virtually at zero and for this time of year, that is bad!

From a personal point of view, the closest year I can compare to this was back in 1999.

Note: I should add that the long range forecast and by looking at the models (), the prognosis is for much of the same and with plenty of dry and mild weather...until mid month at least.

We usually look to you to whet our appetites for winter, with your excesses of snow. This is quite shocking and just shows how much this stubborn euro high is affecting all of Northern Europe. I imagine some parts of Europe ( central and Eastern) have been very dry this autumn.

Indeed Rob.

http://www.storm.no/vaer/58958

The above Norwegian link also today writes about the ski centres all being closed and the season being well delayed in opening. You see the word 'mild' branded all over the place and they write about how the picture is the same over much of Europe in fact i.e brown slopes.

Further to my thoughts a few days ago, I still think that when things are this mild and all seems so bleak, we usually see a dramatic change. Some years will see a gradual and wishy-washy decend into winter but the pattern this year is often the one which brings future chaos, widespread media attention and huge amounts of snow and cold... as if to balance the exzceptionally mild start. IMHO.

Yes I hope you are right about a change around. That forecast link you post shows something more akin to Manchester in December, how thoroughly depressing. I was going to say at the least the mild weather is usable, but I am thinking of in our own economy, I imagine where you are the economy is rather more dependant on the snow, like skiing as you mention.

I have the same feeling NS. What goes up must come down

Would someone please tell the electricity companies, as their prices do not seem to be obeying this maxim...

CFS seasonal temperature charts for December to February and January to March have lost the blue and have either gone white or orange, in fact all months through to July don't go below normal.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Anomaly chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/euT2mMon.gif

CFS seasonal temperature charts for December to February and January to March have lost the blue and have either gone white or orange, in fact all months through to July don't go below normal.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Anomaly chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/euT2mMon.gif

Originally Posted by: WeatherExpert81 

They change all the time anyway, never look at them!

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I don't take much notice of them but in fairness they were quite reasonable at times last winter (certainly the beginning). There was a clear, notable signal in most output that last November and December were going to be cold. I can see no signal for such an event this year- infact I am happy to go on record as thinking this winter will be slightly above long term average as a whole for the UK temperature wise. This seasons winter will be a more difficult call than I can remember for some time as I do think European mainland will be cold. Just depends if we can tap into it- though we have been in that situation countless times in the past.