Well said Brian.  Couldn't have put it better myself.

I wouldn't tempt people.. I'd actually consider living in the North Pole. 

The upper air patterns his analogues were predicting were fairly similar to the last output from the Chinese model I think. He was expecting a lot of blocking over Scandinavia - especially Dec-Jan, and then possibly more focused to Greenland. We could be stuck with Southerlies of course for 2 months if that was right - just depends on the orientation and strength of the Scandi blocking.

At least it's tax free.

Brian, IYBY yes. For quite a few of us, the last few winters have been the same as the winter of 95/96 (which IYBY I've heard you say was rubbish). Lets be honest, We all look at snow depths to decide on if a winter was good or not (95 was a cold one but lacked the snow when I lived down there nearer you). Last winter I had a depth of 5cm's, the winter before was no colder (where I lived in Martham) than last winter but had more snow. Combine the two and we'd have had a decent winter. You on the other hand, have had snow by the bucket load so I can see where you are coming from. But like your opinion of the 95/96 winter which you have mentioned on here from time to time. It doesn't mean it was great from everyone

Other countries do have a climate such that everyone get some snow but the UK isn't one of those countries. It's just a fact of our geography and the current climate (for the sake of clarity and to avoid AGW arguments I mean it has been different during ices ages).

I think the point still stands that expectations by some are just that little bit too high.

We really have been very lucky for the past few winters, whether there were six foot drifts in your backyard or not. The fickle/localised nature of snow will still exist even in the most severe of winters.

In this respect, I think Brian's point is a good one, even if in some parts of the country things have been less spectacular than elsewhere.

Joe, I understand all that. My point is others would tell you that the winter of 95/96 was brilliant, Brian has always said it was poor. But now that the winters were very good in his area, he's not accepting that they were poor elsewhere. When people talk about wanting a 'cold winter' They want it in their back yard and they want it to turn up in the form of snow, not someone else's and will base there opinion on there own experiences.  

Problem seems to be that different parameters are pointing to quite opposite height patterns. One indicates a strong trough over Scandinavia whilst the other has high pressure dominating regions on the eastern Atlantic. As I said in an earlier post, dont remember such large monthly swings from the models and this is surely one reason why. Multiple conflict from atmospheric pointers, when added to the uncertainty over ENSO conditions, will keep us all guessing for a while.

One more LR 500 hPa anomaly to have a look at, this is from the KMA.

http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/include/popup_img.jsp?url=../irwp/down/z5a_sea1.gif&width=850&height=1100

Full range of output.   http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/weather/forecast/long-range3.jsp#

True for some people but not all... Personally I have an interest in winter weather across the whole country, not just in my own back yard. I'm also interested in low temps, not just snow.

Maybe I'm unusual...

Of course your unusual Your a weather geek like me and the rest of us. We wouldn't be 'normal' in the geek sense if we weren't interested in all that stuff. Doesn't mean you don't sit there with an envious eye on the events you want wishing it was happening to you

Yes - right now I'm thinking a mild winter based on SSTs - at least for the Dec period - but you're right some parameters look cold and some mild. Maybe alternating spells of mild/cold - or maybe one parameter will just be too strong and win out over all the others.  A nightmare for seasonal forecasters 

Just got round to watching the video on Netweather's initial winter thoughts.

My interpretation is that a winter more like 08/09 is more likely than a winter like the last one or 09/10, but with conditions showing the potential to be more extreme later in the winter than in February 2009 when the major statospheric warming event occured and delivered easterlies and a week of snow spells to a good swathe of the south.

I can see how we could be faced with a lot of toppling highs during November and December going by the Netweather forecast.

Whilst the forecast is well explained and has decent scientific backing, I think that the effects of anomalous warmth in the Arctic due to the excessive ice melting of recent years is still a wildcard in the mix which is not well understood, so I'm not willing at this time to write off the chance of a significant cold outbreak in the next couple of months. I also wonder how much all those charts they refer to are affected by CFS' probably overdone La Nina...?

I still think the overall set up with regards ENSO and the PDO/AMO situation is very close to the 1950's. Looking at many of the 1950's winters they tended to have milder Decembers with the cold being more common in January, February and even March.

So my hunch is that we won't have much in the way of cold weather before Christmas, but then after Christmas things will become more interesting. I'm tending to think the opposite of all those forecasters that have predicted another cold start to with things getting progressively milder.

I think we start mild and tend to get colder. Thats my hunch right now.

A bit like winter 1985/86 perhaps. That one started with a fairly mild and unsettled December, but then got progressively colder and finished up with the sub-zero February of 1986, the last time we had a sub-zero CET month prior to last December.

Latest CFS temperature chart,

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Anomaly chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Precipitation chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecProbMon.gif

That winter had a cracking November for some.

Latest CFS temperature chart,

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Anomaly chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Precipitation chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecProbMon.gif

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

The last update had deep blues over the UK for November - indicating much below average...now it's gone orange...

Pointless! I don't use these continually fluctuating charts one jot when compiling an LRF.

IMO, this year to date has panned out in a similar vein to the last few years; of course, it has had variations to previous years, but variations of a theme.  The underlying principle is still one of Atlantic low pressure areas being held back, over or to the west of the UK.  by blocking high pressure,  For instance, this autumn so far has seen plenty of examples of stalling Atlantic systems just to the W of the UK.

I think that this pattern will continue throughout the winter months, especially if La Nina stays relatively weak/moderate, and this will probably result in another drier winter for the majority.  As for cold, unless high pressure decides to settle over Iberia and remain there, I'm sure we will get some very cold weather at some point off a cold continent...and maybe if the weather gods are kind to us, off a very cold Scandinavia/Siberia!

David

Northallerton

Latest CFS temperature chart,

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Anomaly chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Precipitation chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecProbMon.gif

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Correct...about as useful as a mudflap on a turtle, a sunroof on a submarine...

The last update had deep blues over the UK for November - indicating much below average...now it's gone orange...

Pointless! I don't use these continually fluctuating charts one jot when compiling an LRF.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

That shows warmer than average Feb, when Net Weather forecasted Colder, yet November was meant to be colder than average and this shows warmer!?? All very confusing and not to be taken as Gospel.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/lrf/oct/jantemp.png 

I do not want to sound unreasonable but how come is it that in the USA accuWeather always forecasts correctly unlike here!?