looking at the Novembers that followed Drywarm Octobers still reveals no silver bullet for cold follwing winters.

The 30 warm dry Octobers between 1900 and 2010 were followed by 10 warm  dry Novembers with a 50:50 split on following  winters beween cold and warm.The 9 cold dry Novembers produced a 5 cold and  4 warm, winters.

The 7 wet warm Novembers split 3 warm,4 cold winters,and the 4 cold wet Novembers produced a 50:50 split

The only conclusion that one can draw is that dry warm Octobers tend to be followed by dry Novembers.But no strong link to cold winters.

Will have final look to see if there is a link  beween November and following winters and autumn a sa whole and the follwing winters.

Thanks again for looking at the statistics Roger

So a dry November could be favoured next month... not exactly whats needed down this way

Remarkable to see how evenly the following winters are split for each combination - you wouldn't expect much less of a correlation!

I think a major reason why relationships are generally weak or nonexistent is because from any given pattern there are always a wide number of patterns that could follow, with the path taken influenced by a wide number of variables, some of which vary themeselves. If the large scale patterns always followed a particular order, long range forecasts would be a far easier business!

In the MO thread I just took a look at November 2009 and how the pattern shifted afterwards to one of impressive cold conditions, as the pattern retogressed considerably. Sure, we could head that way again this year, but we could equally shift in the opposite direction to a very wet regime, for example.

Roger, what correlation is there if you forget temperatures and just look at dry Octobers?

As far as Accuweathers forecast goes, they appear to be at odds with their former long range forecasting expert Joe B'astardi, which is interesting...

I also wonder how much Accuweathers forecast is influenced by CFS and that mega La Nina event its going for? 

Final model update for October comes from IRI;

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2011/oct2011/DJF12_Eur_temp.html

Probability seems to be a mainly normal winter for most of Europe. Keep in mind this is signinficantly cooler than we usually see from IRI - Typically most of Europe is bathed in dark reds.

Thanks for posting. Don't forget how the IRI displays probabilities. What that chart is saying is there is NO bias towards below average, average or above average temperatures across most of Europe, and that all outcomes are equally possible.

Yep, thats a better way of summing it up. The point I was making is that these charts usually show a high probability of never-ending above average temperatures, so its a differant update to what we normally see.

Personally I'm not a fan of these IRI charts, but they do add further to the overall picture.

Gavin re Dry Octobers looking at the period 1900 -2010 there 57 dry Octobers out of 111.On average 45% of the 111 years were below average.Of the dry Octobers only 35% produced a below avearge winter so if anythinh dry Octobers favour milder winters.However staistically there is little correlation between dry year rainfall  anomalies and the following winters CET.The correlation is  0.27 ie only 7% of the variability in CET can be explained by October rainfall anomalies.

Hav looked at November and there are some stronger links.Wet warm, and dry cold Novembers produce only average frequency of below avearge winters.However wet cold Novembers have a 70% chance of being followed by a below avearge winter,whilst on the other end dry warm Ndeliver only a 35% chance of cold winters.

Unfortunately the majority of Novembers 66% fall in the warm wet, dry cold  category whilst the stronger indicators Cold wet occurs in only 1 in 8 Novembers and  dry warm 1 in 4.

So really ony one third of Novemders are liley to give any significant pointers to what follows.

So the link betwen Autumn weather patterns and the following winters is pretty weak.Am finally going to look at Autumn as a season and see if there is any joy there.

However the higher probabilty of cold in South East Europe suggest a positive NAO (if they are right)

Not sure about that Roger as the higher probability of warmer than average temperatures around Iceland and Greenland suggest blocking around this area and a negative NAO?

This is the key I think Gavin.....the Nina forecast is the wildcard this year I think. Joe B'astardi has poo-pooed the mega Nina forecasts which I'm guessing have worked their way into a lot of LRFs and CFS model output. The Eurohigh would be a reasonable punt in a strong Nina set up with the jet powering across the north of the UK, however if the Nina remains weak enough I think the reality could be a bit different. FWIW the Accuweather forecast looks similar to last year which had a mod-strong Nina in place so I can only assume this forecast is based upon such an Enso event as last year.

 I'm not really a fan of any of these seasonal forecast models, although TBH the one I least like is the CFS.

Some final thoughts on the influence of Autumn weather patterns on the following winter

Main conclusion- virtually all the Autumn "links" being talked about here are non existent.Some much stronger forces are shaping the temperature of our winters.

I've looked at warm dry Octobers on their own,warm dry Octobers and the following November weather types,dry Octobers,all October weather types(wet warm,wet cold,dry warm,dry cold),all November weather types,and finally all seasonal Autumn types.

There are vitually no clear signals from any Autumn types.45% of the winters beween 1900 and 2010 had a below average CET(average for the 111 years).Virtually all "indicators" were close to this  average

However

- 70% of wet cold Novembers were followed by below average winter CETs.

- only 35% of dry warm Novembers were followed by below average winter CET's

-57% of wet cold Autumns were followed by below average winter CET's

- only 31% of dry cold Autumns were followed by below average winter CET,s

This means that we have to wait until late November before we have any useful  indicator.If other types of Autumn/November occur then they are of liitle help-unfortunately the large  majority of Autumns are other types!

The Beijing and JAMSTEC models from Asia are leaving the CFS behind, IMO.

Roger, many thanks for your research. Very interesting.

I think AccuWeather have released their European forecast.

So, will you believe this because it is what you want to hear, or write it off because it isn't what you want to here?

Ive been reading through this thread for ages now but not posted much because the thread always reads as i 'i hope' thread still, due to the fact winter is stil so far away.

But i have read about the months this year being warmer than last and recent years that have led to cold winters. But this summer was the coldest since 1993, that has not been mentioned at all. Surely a significant factor. As we havent had a summer that cold in recent internet era, so its hard to predict how that will affect this winter surely??

Im thinking it will be a low probabilty that the UK matches or is colder than last year. a SUB ZERO month last winter, chances of that happening 2 years in a row. Considering months like that are so rare. I feel this forum will be a doom and gloom place this year.

I dont think it will be mild, and isn this october almost identical to last october???

An average winter is my gut feeling, i had 15 nights of -15 or below last december and 5 weeks of snow cover if i include right up to total thaw. cant see that happening again.

I dont find accuweather's forecast of much use. I think any forcast should be used comparing the 3 months leading up to winter only with the previous year.

As I stated in a recent post; all weather forecasts are different. Most providers are going for a mild winter, but really, i'm not really too keen on that. A cold Summer and a warm Winter, it just doesn't seem right at all. If James Madden is sticking to his guns, he must be quite confident that, this year, we will have another Big Freeze.

Anyway, winter hasn't even started and autumn has not even passed, far too early me thinks.

O/T but over time, that's what causes an ice age

At the moment he's the only one who is going for a very cold and snowy winter winter

This is what we have currently,

TWO - No Winter forecast at present

Netweather - No full winter forecast at present only up to January

WeatherOnline - No Winter forecast at present

Positive Weather Solutions - Occasional Wintry Weather, Often Dry in South

Exacta Weather - Heavy Snow and temperatures as low as -20c

Accuweather - Less Snow than last year, Temperatures above normal with rain and snowfall at normal amounts

Interesting work there Roger.  So if what you say is true, then Brian's belief that the weather in November having a critical impact on his final winter LRF could be misplaced...or is it more that Brian and other LRFers need to have a look at the extended model outlooks at the end of  November to maximise the possibility of at least having a fair chance of getting the first 3 weeks of their 12 week forecast something approaching accurate?

Hmm, I will muse on that one....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

Funny, this chart would result in conditions across Europe being not a long way from the Accuweather forecast. The cold is a bit too far west but otherwise it fits the bill.

Obviously this link is unlikely to make sense any more come the 18z run

Okay? 

Someone could be right!

See final conclusion including Autumn on this page.Suggests that waiting til later in November which gives a fix on the whole Autumn  weather type and the month ofNovember can reveal some pointers.