Thanks for your thoughts Brian

I agree that the way things are developing looks less conducive for persistent Greenland blocking. Not all is lost, however, as Scandinavian blocking could easily arise when low pressure is anchored near Greenland (just look at tonights ECM run).

I wouldn't bet against an mostly uninspring winter but which then pulls a very decent easterly out of the hat. I remember reading that climatology favours easterlies later in the winter rather than early on so perhaps February will be the peak of the season. Some analysis over the past few weeks has suggested a few similarities to what we saw pre 2008/09, a winter which delivered the best snowy weather in February down in west Hants.

But for a drought to return doesn't it have to first go away 

So surely it should be "hopefully this means the drought will further intensify"* 

 

(*in those places which have experienced exceptionally low rain fall in the past 12 month)

Originally Posted by: NickR 

Why in God's name does anyone wish for a drought to continue throughout winter?

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Hear, hear! There are far too many weirdos on here wishing for a lack of proper cold and no decent amounts of snow.

I just don't get it!

Originally Posted by: Essan 

A cold winter means a continuation of the ongoing 12 month drought    Who wants a water shortage next summer?

Aye, and an end to the drought

But a very, very, dry (no snow), very, very, very, very, very cold winter in Yate would be much more amusing

Might as well just call it Nov/Dec 2010

Thanks Brian.

I still have no idea what the winter will bring, to be honest.

One "unexpected" development we may have to think about is a sudden eruption of Katla.

I seem to recall that Brian said on the forum around Christmas time, either last year or in 2009 (can't remember which tbh), that had he issued his winter forecast at the start of November rather than at the end, he would have probably gone for a mild winter instead of a cold one. I think this goes to show just how important developments that occur during November can be in terms of having a bearing on what follows afterwards. Even last year, I can remember reading comments from some in which they said that in their view, the prospects for last winter, the early part of it at least, were not as good as they were in 2009. Little did we know what was just around the corner....

Waxwings?

Originally Posted by: NickR 

Why in God's name does anyone wish for a drought to continue throughout winter?

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Hear, hear! There are far too many weirdos on here wishing for a lack of proper cold and no decent amounts of snow.

I just don't get it!

Originally Posted by: Essan 

However I can also understand why people would not want  snow (even though I don't agree). For some folk it can be a major PITA.

It's going to be a long winter if people keep this attitude up. Not just getting at you Gavin.

People need to stop sniping at each other. I implemented a seven day suspension last week for one culprit and there'll be more if this keeps up.

Get a grip, it's only the weather.

Thanks Mr G, a good read.  It'll be interesting to see how the next 6 weeks unfold I think.  

Cheers Brian. Have a feeling the SH will be a big feature this winter. Not sure on the 'dry' factor. especially if Autumn ends up dryer than average overall

Don't think it matters what we want, the weather will do as it pleases. Sorry couldn't help being pedantic! 

I can't - I forgot to buy snow tyres

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

For what its worth latest CFS brings a slightly colder look to December.

And FWIW - it has a distinct 1980s look to it: colder the further S and E you are.

The two most striking things about that link Justin is the "almost locked on cold for Nov" and the opposite in warmth for April, although to far away still.

It was although methinks humour has disappeared somewhat A bit risky asking Gavin to "chill" though

Looking forward to Brian's actual forecast next month. Certainly pays to wait given the teuous nature of our climate!

I think most people will be rather upset about what Gavin said, snow or drought.

Thanks.  I know one or two people are disappointed that I wasn't more conclusive in my initial thoughts yesterday. The truth is I could have taken a punt and got widespread coverage in the media today, but I wasn't prepared to do that. There has already been too much noise from certain sources in recent weeks. 

Early signs in FI GFS and ECM of heights over Western Russia, extending Westwards. I expect this to migrate towards Greenland for mid November, with the Jet taking it's now usual winter vacation over North Africa. 

Latest (mid October) NOA forecasts from ECMWF and CFSv2 ( COUTESY OF WORLD CLIMATE SERVICE),show NAO for period Dec-Feb wholly in positive territory.Ensemble  NAO means generally between 0 and.+1.0

If this forecasr turned out accurate it would give little clue to temperatures as correlation between weak NAO values (-1 to +1) is lower than for stronger NAO values.Most likely outcome close to average CET but could above or below.

Hi all, been a member for a while but never had courage to post. Regarding the comments above what gives you the impression that the high will migrate towards Greenland? I know from past experience that that will be a good thing if we are wanting cold and possibly snow later one. My only concern at the minute is that it is only October 17th. As a novice any explanation would be appreciated, thanks

If I remember correctly did not Joe ******i last year suggest that the next severe winter would be in 2012/13, he kinder skipped past this one?

Nothing more than guesswork at that range