That's fine, but would that comment not make more sense in the Autumn thread rather than the winter thread? The time period you are talking about is Autumn

I usually think of winter as whenever winter weather arrives.

Yes, I suppose you could have a thread called prospects for wintry weather then, but either way the Met Office outlook was suggesting autumnal weather in autumn.

Hmm.. Looks like Wednesday's going to be a coldie for Scotland according to the temperature chart at BBC:

news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

The link doesn't work.

Urg! Every time I try to copy and paste "Sorry, your browser does not support this.." 

Off topic and trivial, but its been a while since I saw a warmer and drier than average May-June-July on the CFS output!

Back on topic, I think its interesting to see a hint of below average temperatures later in the winter, focused towards the SE. I myself have been getting a feeling that we'll see decent easterlies in February and March this year but I have no scientific backing for this!

That signal for drier than average conditions is very persistent and rather worrying. Its amazing to see it lasting right through the forecast period for England - 1975/76 rerun here we come? Frankly if its not drier than average then the model will lose what little credence it has left in my books.

Gemma, forcast is spelt 'forecast'....past that into the browser and it works.

Joe

You mean the probability of lower precipitation is between 45-55% in some Western areas of UK (Wales, NW England) and SE Ireland during Dec-Feb with the remainder showing normal precipitation?

Or am I interpreting the chart incorrectly!!! I'd take May-July though....but nonsense charts the way they are flipping and changing in my opinion. I wonder, as per GFS charts, are these published ones just one run of an ensemble set?

Joe

Oops, silly me. My daft spelling again 

ECM going for a near normal Nov-Jan temp anomaly;

http://retro.met.no/sesongvarsler/index.html

The warm anoms over Scandinavia and Greenland probably imply quite a bit of blocking.

As long as November and December is better than 2010 i'll be happy.

If by better you mean warmer then you should be ok given that December 2010 was the coldest December on record. Whether this December is colder or milder than average I would be very surprised if we had a second record cold December in a row.

Hm yeah, more snow and cold.

He's been told this on numerous occasions and seemingly doesn't give a damn and carries on regardless.

IMO that implies that we'll see a quite frequently blocked winter, but one where the pattern more often than not leaves the UK underneath high pressure rather than at the periphery; the positive anomalies in Scandinavia and Greenland would result from Atlantic air moving around the high pressure that is sat over or very near to the UK.

I wonder if a precipitation anomaly map would show below average for the UK and above average for coastal parts of Scandinavia - that is what CFS shows and its in good agreement with the forecast being discussed (although southern Norway is shown as more likely to be drier than average on the CFS output - but then this is allowable under the theme of 'high pressure near the UK'.)

Obviously there will be a range of patterns through the winter, the idea being that the above would turn up most often.

There's ever more out there to support a drier than average winter that is not particularly cold or mild overall. If the pattern is blocked, however, some considerable variation in conditions is likely. There is little available at this time to allow for sensible prediction of how that variation materialises.

Hardly a worry....I couldn't even spell "PASTE" correctly!!!!!     

Joe

Up early today, Matt?

Indeed ECM pasting a dry winter but (and a bit but) it is as you say still too early to be giving anything more than a 15% probability on any particular trend.

Up early today Neil?

Nice summary Matt. Looks like Murr block territory if that verifies with his dreaded faux cold

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2011/CS201112_201202GLZ500L3.GIF