They should really I agree. They could put a huge disclaimer with the forecast to point out that all these long range computer models are experimental and prone to a large degree of error.... I'll stop there before I get in trouble.

I'm not sure its the "public" so much as the newspapers.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Looks like the warm & dry October theory should get a real test this winter. It would take a complete deluge now to make us wetter than average, and we're certainly going to end up above average.  

The other plus point for cold weather fans is that the warm SST anomaly to our SW is going to take a real battering over the next 10 days due to low pressure being parked in that region. At the moment that warm patch favours a ridge in the jetstream across W Europe - at least IMO.

I agree but after 2009 I can see why they don't now which is a shame, They are always going to get a battering every time a prediction goes wrong.

The negative press Meto got after 09 was OTT and the bigging up of JP at PWS in Media over it all probably made them feel.....ok then stick with PWS and we'll watch what happens from a distance.

I can see why MetO don't need the hassle of the Negative Publicity of it all, they tick along nicely, have a growth of followers and it's up to all the smaller rivals to try and add to the competition.

Factors affecting winter forecast (period 1.12.11- 29.2.12)

• Enso state

• Solar activity

• QBO

• Yearly analogues

• Jet stream behaviour

• Long range model output (CFS, ECM LONG RANGE etc)

So here it is, the winter preliminary thoughts as promised; this particular has proven more tricky to put together than last year’s offering and so confidence is slightly reduced due to conflicting signals. During the past 6 months we have seen a reduction in the strength of the la Nina that was particularly prevalent during the latter half of winter 2010/2011, even so we remain in la Nina conditions- however predictions are for a weak la Nina rather than a moderate/strong offering. I consider this to be a good pointer to a colder than average winter across the UK.

However, less positive indicators include the awakening of the sun which has seen heightened activity over the last 12 months and a propensity of the jet stream to migrate further north than has been the case prior to the beginning of the year and post 2006.

Long range model output at this moment in time appears to support the notion of a dry winter period, this can be seen within long range forecasting models such as the ECM. Another theme appears with average temperatures being displayed across models such as the CFS. This suggests high pressure over or very close to UK shores.

Winter to start off colder than it ends- November into December looks to be the coldest period of the winter, much like 2010-2011, a much milder end to the winter seems likely with an early spring season.

December

Starting off cold or perhaps very cold with a propensity for high pressure around Iceland and southern Greenland with east to northeasterly winds being the dominant direction. As the month progresses, it remains cold with some very cold minima but with high levels of sunshine relative to the time of year. A dry month with rainfall around 70% of average or lower. Less in the way of snow as the month progresses with high pressure, originally across Iceland, slipping south to settle on top of the UK.

CET estimate: Below Average

January

The month starts off cold and dry with extensive night time frosts but predominantly dry. Day time temperatures will be on the cold side though will feel pleasant in the extensive sunny intervals where mist and fog clears. Throughout the month, high pressure will settle over or very close to the UK but with a southward trend and thus allowing an Atlantic feed into the north of Scotland and Ireland. This atlantic influence will increase temperatures and will begin to spread further south during the month as the jet stream powers up over the top of the high pressure cell. An average month in terms of temperature but possibly below in terms of precipitation.

CET estimate: Average

February

An above average month in terms of temperatures- synoptics akin to February 1998 though perhaps not as mild. High pressure slips away south with powerful jetstream to the north. Rain and drizzle commonplace across northern and western areas with the driest weather across the south and east. Limited frost potential.

CET estimate: Above average

These are my preliminary thoughts on winter 2011-2012, the final forecast will be released around the middle of November.

CreweCold

When people make false or ill-informed criticisms of anyone then I will defend them    I have often criticised the MetO in the past (and have noted that constructive criticisms made on forums such have this have often been heeded by the MetO - so it's something worth doing)

The problem with the MetO seasonal probability forecasts was that most people a) don't understand probability and b) think that if there's a higher chance of the season being mild then it means there won't be any cold weather at all ..... 

I blame the education system myself

(not that I think the forecasts were of much use anyway - knowing that rainfall over the next 3 months will probably be below average tells us nothing.  Does that mean it'll rain half as often as usual?  Will all the rain fall in one week and the rest of the period be very dry?  Will it rain every day but with each daily total very low?  I assume the more detailed forecasts issued to their paying clients would have given more of this sort of detail, though I don't know)

Good stuff. The conflicting (and changing!)signals do make 2011/12 a difficult  forecast Your monthly scenarios based on the position of HP gradually shifting fron north of us in early December to siuth of us by Febraury sound entirely feasible.We will get an early indication from location of HP in December.Overall it sound like your average CET for winter as a whole will be slightly below average.

I thought the La Nina is strengthening! As for the cold start and early Spring - Hasn't this been the case for  the past several years!? AccuWeather winter forecast is exactly the same as last year's forecast./ Also where is Joe ******i, where is his seasonal forecast he publishes every Oct/Nov!?

No, that was only the case last winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif 

It's hard to make a pattern when it changes so frequently, which is why most people don't use it as a gospel.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess= 

I guess that would mean end of Nov BEGINING of December. -So ALL eyes will be on the GFS FI's in the next week or two and whether or not we will see that HP over Scandinavia.

Its looking more likely than not at the moment that we'll be looking at having had a warm, dry October this year, provided the blocking high that develops to our east doesn't flee from our shores before the month is out and allow the Atlantic to get right across the UK).

Some believe that a link between warm, dry Octobers and cold winters exists. I'm not so sure, but I'd like to see things taken a step further; what sort of correlation exists between a warm, dry October and a cold winter when the following month of November is considered in terms of temperature and precipitation?

My own records are too limited to conclude anything. Of the three warmest Octobers I've recorded, none were particularly dry, but 2009 did come close, with the following November warm and very wet, this preceeding a cold winter with average rainfall. One record has no use here!

Responses will be much appreciated

Accuweather was supposed to publish their European forecast yesterday but not seen anything. Anyone else seen something?

Interesting final section from Paul Hudson's blog about The winter forecast and media hype,

Interestingly the latest seasonal forecast is now available from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).

It indicates close to average winter temperatures (averaged over Dec, Jan & Feb).

But perhaps more interestingly, as can be seen below, it suggests higher than average pressure - which means lower rainfall.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/PRESSURE.jpg

This would be bad news for drought affected eastern England, and could, if correct, lead to serious problems next year.

Storm chaser have looked at anomalies for October rainfall and CET from 1766 to 2010(by comparing to means over the 245 years)This produces 57 dry warm Octobers.Of the following winters D,J,F the mean was below average in 20 years ie only 35%.

Have done the same exerecise for just the last 111 years from  1900 to 2010.Comparing each year with the October rainfall and CET produces 32 dry warm Octobers.Of these 17 were followed by a below average  winter CET(v 1901-2010 Mean D,J,F mean)just over 50%.So no real evidence that a a warm dry October is more likely to result in a cold winter.

However what is interesting for the record is the list of warm dry Octobers that were followed by colder than average winters.They are as follows (coldest bold)

1908/09,16/17,41/42,57/58,58/59,62/63,63/64,69/70,77/78,78/79,79/80,83/84,85/86,95/96,96/97

2009/10,10/11.

This list includes some of the coldest winters of the last 110 years so winters following warm dry Octobers  have a slightly lower CET than average although unlikely to be statistically significant.However before we get carried away 12 really cold winters ie CET anomaly below-1C were not preceded by warm dry Octobers including classics  like 55/56,46/47,39/40,28/29.

Thankyou Roger for the interesting look into October CET/Rainfall and the following winters.

It seems like a warm, dry October increases the potential for significant cold but does not make it, or cold weather in general, any more likely.

Of those warm and dry Octobers, what interests me is what the Novembers that followed were like and what combinations of November and warm dry October produced more in the way of cold winters - if any.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1965

An interesting blog post here by Dr. Jeff Masters.

What really gets me thinking is the section on Arctic sea ice and the impact of much-below average ice cover on the synoptic patterns in the northern hemisphere during winter. It says that the excess heat storage in the Arctic during winter appears to act to create more frequent and stronger negative NAO conditions, so moving cold airmasses out of the Arctic and towards the mid-latitudes more often and to a larger extent. This may explain why the 2009-2010 NAO value managed to dip to record low values, beating 1962-63.

Another key section IMO is the one on solar activity, which includes this graph:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2011/sunspot.gif

This shows that sunspot numbers really are shooting upwards at the moment, now at the highest level for about 8 years. It has seemed that low solar activity has aided in developing cold winters in the UK - as well as poor summers - so this acts to lower the odds of a cold winter in my mind, but I think it won't reduce the potential for very cold conditions to happen from time to time (just not sticking around for all that long each time). FWIW it also serves to make me more optimistic about next summer!

Accuweather dissapinting winter forecast for southern cold/snow lovers!

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/euro/story/56651/winter-forecast-20112012.asp

A Gavin D stylee winter then but with less drought

A snoozefest of a winter if that came off I'd say. Roll on Summer. 

So yet another forecast which goes for an above normal winter temperature wise.

Less snow fall than last year, that's good

And we should be back to some where around normal for rain fall and snow fall.

And any one heading off to Spain and or Portugal this winter are in for a treat.

Correct me if i'm wrong (as I may well be) but I thought that precipitaiton last December was actually way below average anyway...?