I'll never live this down when Matty finds out.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif 

I reminded a colleague of this last week only to be told that I was talking out of my fundament! Cheers for confirming that I wasn't

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After giving it a lot of consideration, I've decided my initial thoughts will be going direct to TWO this year despite elements of the media asking for a heads up. The reason is I don't want to be associated with some of the other forecasts which have gone straight to the press this autumn. Here are links to my initial thoughts for winters 2007/8, 2008/09, and 2009/10.

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1723
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1675
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1610

Exacta Weather are not changing their thoughts for the forthcoming winter in their latest update:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Saw this yesterday, hardly surprising after all the press attention lately he's not going to back track now.

I hope to see the polar bear picture rolled out again 

To be fair to him, I really think he's calling the winter as he's sees it. If he's completely wrong (let's face it there's a good chance he will be) then he's going to lose all credibility and receive a lot of critism.

The Met Office do even when it's the independents getting it wrong

Your perception of how the public react is spot on.Weather= METO.The downside of such a powerful strong and long established brand name.After all what consumer brand has multiple exposure everyday on TV and radio?

I think these are valid points, perhaps the public would change their perception that all forecasts emenate from the Met Office, if it was not publicly run, but privatised, but I won't say anymore for fear of taking this thread off on a political angle.

I do agree that all of these new private forecasts ought to get the same grilling though - we can at least grill them here. Can I suggest a thread in March to review the forecasts that were issued by the various private web sites so that we can take them to task if they're woefully wrong

Anyone can have a guess - and like most guesses sometimes they are right and sometimes wrong. What I like to see is some methodology to back it up.

Accuweather will be releasing Europes winter forecast sometime next week. Will be interesting to see their thoughts now JB ino longer with them.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/56311/wild_storm_to_hit_east_next_we.asp

Agree it would be nice to have a sticky thread with all the forecasts contained that we could review in detail after the winter . We'd need to be clear what the forecasts mean though. For example, is the forecast of -20C for some Scottish glens or London or is the forecasts for deep snow for Cairngorms or Essex? We need to be clear because this story looks like an attempt to justify what people from the Midlands to W Wales (that I've spoken too) think was a forecast of snow in early Oct for lowland southern Britain.

EDIT: see post in media thread for example of confusion.

I fully agree with this.  There is nothing wrong with any forecaster producing their forecasts as long as it's backed up and not just a "gut feel".

PK2 - I think you're absolutely right, the wild statements of "-20C" and "Snow in October" can be made to sound far less sensational if some more accuracy around the statement is provided, because both of those statements become far less sensational when placed in the same sentance as "in the Scottish Highlands".  It's funny how something as simple as the addition of a few words could change the entire story or interpretaion of the story by the reader - it makes you wonder if in fact some of the forecasters actually want it to be misinterpreted that way or whether its just the media hearing the bits they want to hear...we'll never really know but it's up to each and every reader to apply a pinch of salt and use some common sense.   

More likely the Media typing it up to make Joe Public think it affects them so they buy the paper to make the newspaper money

October IOD model has updated (click the seasonal predictions link in the side bar)

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/

Still going for a cold and dry winter across much of Europe.

Other points of interests;

AMO goes increasingly negative over the next nine months. If this is right, by summer 2012 the Atlantic will be at its coldest since sometime in the early 90's.

La Nina is not forecast to go much beyond weak this winter.

Summer 2012 (a long way off, obviously) forecast cold and wet (probably because of the very cold Atlantic)

I disagree. I've been in touch with the relevant people today telling them there won't be a press release this weekend for my initial winter thoughts as they'll be going straight to the site this year. It's easy to blame journalists but they are only doing their job, and in my experience generally doing it well. Independent agencies know exactly what the outcome will be when putting out certain forecast headlines, and need to exercise responsibility.

I can understand why media outlets would fail to publish any methodology, even if the forecasters provided it.

Listing the effects of sea-surface temperatures, jet-stream positions, solar activity etc. would render any article unreadable except by specialists who wouldn't be reading the article anyway.

And you'd need to publish a separate glossary to explain terms such as northern blocking, ENSO, AMO etc.

I think I'm a pretty average sort of reader, having got an O-level in physics 35 years ago, and I have an interest in long-range weather forecasts for professional reasons, but if the only way of accessing private forecasts had  involved the level of analysis and detail I find here, the task of learning to understand the methodology would have been too daunting.

Basically, simple headlines and dubious extreme forecasts whetted my appetite to investigate further in a way that a sober yet baffling analysis would not.

Cold dry winter across much of Europe UK included? If so i'll take that now.

Summer 2012 cold and wet surely not, too far out as you say so more than enough time for change.

One thing is also shows is a per CFS spring once again looks like been warmer than normal.