Think about it

Blimey you can tell it is autumn because every thread i have read has sarcastic remarks and unrest! There are many factors that are in play this winter like;

• Solar activity
• La Nina
• Pattern matching
• Hopecasting
• Media exageration

You name it and you got it! To me this year is very exciting and the reason being is that there is no sure pattern that is setting up and this is what causes all the tension, i honestly believe that this year it could go either way in terms of a warm, cold or average winter and people need to forget what the outcome is but enjoy how we get there.

Mother nature is a facinating creature and i know there will be some surprises this winter whether it be flooding rain or deep snow. IMO i think a cold start to winter is favourite with a general warming but wouldn't be shocked if i was wrong! So for now i am going to sit back and enjoy whatever weather comes our way,......certain excitable members should do the same!

A quick look at key indicators and how they stand compared to a month back.

1.ENSO. Last months  NOAA advisory had returning La Nina conditions gradually stregthening through the winter.This months has a weak to moderate strength La Nina being most likely during N hemishere winter.It is fair to point outa lot of variationm between models with METO for example having a value of just below -1.0 for DJF,whilst CFS has between -1.3 and -1.8.

2.SST's. The main feature is  an  Atlantic cold pool which has intensified and stretches from Newfoundland to W  of Ireland.I'd welcome views on what this means for winter-my view is that it increases ther likelihood of a Mid atlantic anticyclone dominating winter weather.

3.Solar activity. In August index was 50.5 and this increased to 78.0 in September,but still low for this stage of the sunspot cycle.(but much higher than last year closer to the solar minimum).

4.QBO. In august this switched from positive to negative (easterly).Ther ahs bben only alittle stregthening in September to -2.3.

5.Northern Blocking Jet. Its difficult to read this currently nothern blocking seems weak though GFS suggests that in the second half of October ot may increase with the jet moving south.My judgemrnt o dthat nothern blocking this Autumn has not been as strong as last year.

6.CFS & METO probability charts. Both have shifted from a below average DJF to close or slightly above average.

7.Autumn patterns. It is too early to say how autumn will pan out.However it looks as if both Sept and October will be above average temps and below average rainfall.UNless November redresses the balance an overall warm dry autumn llopks quite likely which generally does.not favour cold winters.

Conclusion.The below average  temperature probability has weakened and something close to average looks likely -Anticyclones in the wrong place.

I know what you mean

Thousands of media hacks won't

PWS Update for November is for a Variable one, chilly at times there is a hint of some brief sleet or wet snow across upland areas of northern and perhaps eastern Britain. PWS expects November for most regions to end up a little drier than the long-term average. Feeling chilly too for some areas.

Maybe a cold but mainly dry November away from the North?

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Long-Range-Forecast.php

OMG!   Sleet in the Cairngorms!!!!!!   In late October!!!!!!!!!!  

Whatever next?

The month as a whole is here in the format of a GFS run - just mouseover then click apres for the second part of the month.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=12&day=1&year=2010&map=0&hour=0

The archive of the GFS runs from last year is here.   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=1&mois=12&annee=2010&heure=12&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&carte=0

You shouldn't be so surprised Andy. Do you remember the last week of October 2008, when snow fell to low levels in southern England during a brief northerly spell?

Here's proof from my garden.

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1680

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1681

It is already quite chilly in Denmark - already there have been air frosts and tonight it is cold and clear with the temp dipping below freezing. Harbinger of what is to come?

Thanks Nouska!

Arguably it's the sort of non-extreme forecast that the press are seldom interested in with little hint of the extremes they're reported as suggesting for Nov.

Jmaes Madden has updated his website;

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Nothing new. Just basically going over what has already been posted.

We were promised October snow by the Express. Forecast verified then.

I'm certain that there will be snow this year. Thanks Gavin P for sharing 😉

Anybody in or around London, don't forget WSI are having their annual European Winter Symposium tomorrow evening;

http://www.wsieurope.com/4010a794-a7f6-4110-bb24-1fa9dfeb71f0/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

How very interesting. Although I am in Scotland, I am interested in what WSI have to say. Thanks for the share.... once again 

No problem

Met Office now talking about snow for next week but only for high ground,

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=211402#post211402#post211402 (Reply 270)

Amended